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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


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20 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I don’t think it’s just this field.  Stupid is all the rage these days. 

A lot of it is for clicks. You keep the hype and the bait up and you’ll get clicks. 
 

I do think there is potential to get something in the 12/20-12/25 range but it’s far from a huge signal or lock. It isn’t clear how amped the western ridge is going to be. You see something like the OP Euro go bonkers with the ridge and then look at the EPS and it’s trying to roll it over which usually is bad for us. 
 

Guidance isn’t quite sure what to do with the Aleutian low right now. Some guidance tries to push it east a bit during that 12/20-12/25 period (acting more like a defacto GOA low) which actually would force the PNA ridge to roll over and warm us up and limit big storm potential at the same time…then it retrogrades and we go cold/stormy later on deeper into the future. Other guidance at times has not moved it as far east and keeps the PNA ridge building up and would likely produce a colder week leading into Xmas and better chances for a winter storm. 

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21 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Colder than forecasted or warmer?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Warmer. 37/34 currently and still raining.

If I do change it’ll be another white rain event here.

NAM was the only piece of guidance that was close it seems. Took until 18z for it to key into it too. Everything else way too cold/frozen.

 

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