Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2024 Share Posted December 6, 2024 not sure what the skill is here ... my impression is not great, but ... there's a big time high altitude heat intrusion modeled by the day-10 gfs over on the asian side of the pv, and it's intense enough that it's stressing the field/'kidney beaning' that's usually consistent with ssw, that much i know. but this below doesn't always signal one is imminent, either. it has to be qualified as a downwelling and mulit-layer distorting which cannot be determined yet. it also doesn't fit the climate puzzle with qbo/solar leading ... no it's interesting. something big is assessed either way to distort the planetary vortex as much as that is, tho. with all this early season epo/wave breaking at high latitude had me wondering if a big planetary wave dispersion event may be on the verge of taking place despite the climate background. it would not necessarily reflect an ssw, but a very deep wpo out there that is coupled to the troposphere - that's code for splitting the vortex. but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2024 Share Posted December 6, 2024 On 12/6/2024 at 11:00 PM, Typhoon Tip said: not sure what the skill is here ... my impression is not great, but ... there's a big time high altitude heat intrusion modeled by the day-10 gfs over on the asian side of the pv, and it's intents enough that that it's stressing the field/'kidney beaning' that's usually consistent with ssw, that much i know. it doesn't fit the climate puzzle with qbo/solar heading ... it's interesting. something is big assessed either way to distort the planetary vortex that much tho - Expand Per Joe D’Aleo at WB: “Strat warm favored in west QBO near solar max” https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/?do=findComment&comment=7489229 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2024 Share Posted December 6, 2024 On 12/6/2024 at 11:04 PM, mitchnick said: Per Joe D’Aleo at WB: “Strat warm favored in west QBO near solar max” I checked it and by golly I think he has a point: Solar DJF 135+/west QBO: 57-8: SSW 1/31/58 59-60: SSW 1/17/60 69-70: SSW 1/2/70 78-9: SSW 2/22/79 80-1: SSW 2/6/81 90-1: no SSW 99-00: SSW 3/20/00 01-02: SSW 12/31/01, 2/18/02 -So, of these 8 high solar/+QBO winters, 7 had at least one major SSW and one had two! - earliest 12/31 - 3 in Jan - 3 in Feb - 1 in Mar - So, perhaps one will actually be likely this winter should DJF SSN be 135+. SSN: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/?do=findComment&comment=7489229 Expand yeah, i know who he is. have spoken to him before. back in 2005 actually, and come to think of it ( ironically...) we were discussing this particular solar period 2020 -2030 at the time. wow. weird. anyway, i don't have as much knowledge about the solar cycles. my knowledge fades after uv --> ozone destruction and that particular correlation. in the general sense, active summer and autumn + tends to correlated with +aos, because uv associated with solar storms is a cosmic cleaner. lower ozone changes the temperature conductivity at the densities of the stratosphere... but there could be exceptions in the peridiocities. seems there's where that focus is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2024 Share Posted December 6, 2024 On 12/6/2024 at 10:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Post up Reggie Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2024 Share Posted December 6, 2024 On 12/6/2024 at 11:21 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Expand 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2024 Share Posted December 6, 2024 Yeah we take the weeklies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 With a grain of salt. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 Perhaps a little blow torch on the side, just in time for Christmas? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 Cold/snow Christmas, just in time for the holidays. We take. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:13 AM, Snowedin said: Perhaps a little blow torch on the side, just in time for Christmas? Expand The Grinch lies waiting 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:21 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: The Grinch lies waiting Expand we don't know the outcomes. a lot can change between now and then, we'll see what actually happens. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:21 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: The Grinch lies waiting Expand Always lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:14 AM, Torch Tiger said: Cold/snow Christmas, just in time for the holidays. We take. Expand I like this version of Torch Tiger. Thats the spirit! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 La Niña, my ass 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:31 AM, Torch Tiger said: we don't know the outcomes. a lot can change between now and then, we'll see what actually happens. Expand Everything reverts to the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:37 AM, cleetussnow said: I like this version of Torch Tiger. Thats the spirit! Expand It's a call for help. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 1:12 AM, kdxken said: It's a call for help. Expand the whining and snapping at people gets old 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 1:08 AM, kdxken said: Everything reverts to the mean. Expand Regression is a mofo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:37 AM, cleetussnow said: I like this version of Torch Tiger. Thats the spirit! Expand 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:21 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: The Grinch lies waitingWith a happy meal in Canada apparently...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:21 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: The Grinch lies waiting Expand Do you hear what I hear? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 I still can't believe the mountains are 50"+ on the season to date and BTV has yet to record its first inch. You want to talk about microclimates... 15 miles as the crow flies between BTV and Mount Mansfield. One is looking for its first inch, the other has had nearly 5 feet on the season with a settled depth of 30". Even without elevation factored in, we've had 15" in town over the past two weeks. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 12:14 AM, Torch Tiger said: Cold/snow Christmas, just in time for the holidays. We take. Expand Who are you? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 2:07 AM, powderfreak said: I still can't believe the mountains are 50"+ on the season to date and BTV has yet to record its first inch. You want to talk about microclimates... 15 miles as the crow flies between BTV and Mount Mansfield. One is looking for it's first inch, the other has had nearly 5 feet on the season with a settled depth of 30". Even without elevation factored in, we've had 15" in town over the past two weeks or so. Expand I used to work with a guy from Burlington, I thought they did good snow wise and he said we get more down here than they used to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 4:07 AM, DavisStraight said: I used to work with a guy from Burlington, I thought they did good snow wise and he said we get more down here than they used to get. Expand Just another showery round of fluff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 4:34 AM, powderfreak said: Just another showery round of fluff. Expand Yeah just started here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 1:33 AM, kdxken said: Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 3:22 AM, Henry's Weather said: Who are you? Expand Psst it's a FALSE FRONT. I am gassing folks up for a disappointment. Don't tell anyone 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 On 12/7/2024 at 5:44 AM, Torch Tiger said: Psst it's a FALSE FRONT. I am gassing folks up for a disappointment. Don't tell anyone Expand A lot of us knew you way back when...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2024 Share Posted December 7, 2024 GFS and both NAMs are fugly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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