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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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bit of an unmanned fire hose pattern in the operational version tenor, as we head through mid month.  however, the telecon spread favors warmer than normal.

it could go either way.   the operational 06z gfs has an impressive mid/ua ridge for stint out there mid month, that the 00z used random pacific wave traffic to effect a suppression.  the ridge is there though, regardless.  but this oscillating has been notable over recent guidance cycles wrt mid month - likely owing in part to the fact that it is 'mid month' and here it is only the 6th. but since the pattern foot isn't really committing to a more coherent - or +  pnap  ...the whip end of the hose is flopping around in model runs a bit more than usual. 

the euro's been less varied.  the ggem is ... the ggem.   one thing i will add here, even if a ridge were to become more likely ... it's not clear that we won't have it be top heavy with high pressure n.  that's typically a warm pattern with a cold uneventful, zip remarkable surface.   oooh sign us up!   ha, but if the lower trop can be wedge-cool enough... maybe supplying tainted drug doses that are better than rocking back and forth in a straight jacket with blood shot eyes

the wpo is neutral positive. as that implies, not hugely positive but it is rising and passing into the plus side of the 0 SD.   given some lag, the epo will tend to catch up and demo the transmittance of the former/upstream forcing - however, all three ensemble means actually have a neutral-negative epo as we age toward xmas.  it's interesting. 

meanwhile, all ens sources have a -pna at least for 3 to 5 days, through the 20th, and the (recent) beginnings of a positive mode change after that time - obviously that's getting far enough out there to where it's mere conjecture only. 

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Euro looked mostly frozen here Monday night into Tuesday. Also gives 1 to 2 with the clipper 

Actually gave about 3-5” for ORH up to your area Monday night. Not sure I buy that yet but the trend has def been wedgier with that. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey, we had some decent events 20–21.

All I’m doing is having some fun amid a crappy pattern and a crappy stretch. I’m not purposely trying to get people mad, just got to roll with it.

20-21 was the only good year imby relative to climo. 

If it’s going to be a bad stretch, have fun with it. The worst is trying to wade through delusional optimism and relentless negativity. Neither are necessary. Call it like you see it, enjoy the fellowship around here among other wx weenies, and be happy whenever something does break our way. Idk why people make that so hard. 

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14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

cdas-sflux_sst_global_1~2.png

So, A few pages back someone attached a link to a video of these two guys, Joe and Joe, talking about the pattern and what they see happening at the end of the month into January. It seems really positive and they gave some really good feedback and reasons why they feel the pattern is going to get into a phase 7. So there's some really good and positive news moving forward towards the end of the month. 

It was a little bit long but it was well worth the watch. 

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

20-21 was the only good year imby relative to climo. 

If it’s going to be a bad stretch, have fun with it. The worst is trying to wade through delusional optimism and relentless negativity. Neither are necessary. Call it like you see it, enjoy the fellowship around here among other wx weenies, and be happy whenever something does break our way. Idk why people make that so hard. 

It’s always difficult through the written word…and hard to decipher sometimes between fun, and nastiness. So a forum like this is dependent and at the mercy of that. Many times that’s what causes the issues.  
 

How’s Sunday looking?  If we can score a couple(2-3) there…some of us would be closing in on climo snow for December. 

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55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because that’s just me. I like to be a wise ass sometimes. But when you are against the Snow agenda on this board people get mad. I used to care but not anymore. I just call it as I see it.

Candidate for post of the year!

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this is waaaay out at the temporal edge of the run but this has been increasing a bit in the fantasy product suite. for how little it is worth.

image.thumb.png.61f8b8074e472301493541a4abac2b5b.png

this is a deep and massive +pna trough that is in the process of arriving/emerging n-ne of hawaii.   that downstream structure across the n/a continent would be forced into a ridging along 110 or so w within mere days.  

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is waaaay out at the temporal edge of the run but this has been increasing a bit in the fantasy product suite. for how little it is worth.

image.thumb.png.61f8b8074e472301493541a4abac2b5b.png

this is a deep and massive +pna trough that is in the process of arriving/emerging n-ne of hawaii.   that downstream structure across the n/a continent would be forced into a ridging along 110 or so w within mere days.  

Yes. The GEFS are less enthused, but do try to show something similar in terms of the Aleutian trough.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes. The GEFS are less enthused, but do try to show something similar in terms of the Aleutian trough.

here's the geffies from the 06z  ... this signal is pretty damn bright considering the distance out there in time.  and, considering the distance ... there's likely a few members contributing to this mean with more wholesale/considerably deeper continental responding meridian layout.  haha, lot of 'longitudinal' words to say that the flow is probably less flat between seattle and boston

image.thumb.png.6755aee4921b0d02d7160643099e6d14.png

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

here's the geffies from the 06z  ... this signal is pretty damn bright considering the distance out there in time.  and, considering the distance ... there's likely a few members contributing to this mean with more wholesale/considerably deeper continental responding meridian layout. 

image.thumb.png.6755aee4921b0d02d7160643099e6d14.png

Yeah its a good signal..I meant more that it was milder across the CONUS. Perhaps we can finally have some luck around the holidays.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

here's the geffies from the 06z  ... this signal is pretty damn bright considering the distance out there in time.  and, considering the distance ... there's likely a few members contributing to this mean with more wholesale/considerably deeper continental responding meridian layout. 

image.thumb.png.6755aee4921b0d02d7160643099e6d14.png

If you put it into motion, the trough is retrograding west which, if correct and it continues, should build heights along the west coast.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2024120606&fh=loop&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

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17 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Just think of all the times in history to be alive as a snow lover, and this is one we get. Unreal. Boston just had its 3rd least snowy 2 year period ending in 2021, which, of course, is almost certain to drop into 4th barring some late month nor'easter magic.

Excuse me, you had winter of 14-15. Now that was something to have lived through for anyone more than 20 miles east of the river

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2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Excuse me, you had winter of 14-15. Now that was something to have lived through for anyone more than 20 miles east of the river

It is true that since end of Feb 2022 it's been really disgusting, but the last 30 years overall have been great for snow weenies. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is true that since end of Feb 2022 it's been really disgusting, but the last 30 years overall have been great for snow weenies. 

Yes sir…but after that run, you knew something had to give.  Hello the last 3 years for Boston.  It’s sucked everywhere, but especially for that city.  

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16 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well .. to be empathetic to the solemn singers, it's been since 2015 ...   mmm 9 years is for all intents and purposes a decade, that much of coastal mass has seen normal snow.  so saying "just had" ...that's a little gaslighty   hahaha.

seriously though, it's getting on in age at this point.   thing is, we may have slipped over a climate threshold where these 9 years worth of sore butting becomes more normal.   i know that's probably going to earn me 0 love hearts, no 100 %'s ... no thankyous and a pile of shit or two, but this is unfortunately our non-zero possible reality at this point. 

that said, this winter will probably go on to conquer all evil ... just to enable.  but the price in selling to that devil might be a new fresh hell of 12 years again over before we pull the cosmic d out of our cc bums ... a time in which the polar ice free waters for the first time.

Well I don't know. To have lived through is strong wording, since most folks live at least five to eight decades. Ten years is a long time but when the pattern is right eastern  Mass gets 15 to 30 inch storms like a dog gets ticks running through the woods.

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15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If you put it into motion, the trough is retrograding west which, if correct and it continues, should build heights along the west coast.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2024120606&fh=loop&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

yeah, i wasn't going to delve very deeply into topic considering the range - keep it orbital...    i will add, already by 270 hours the changes between hawaii and the west coast are underway with aggressive multi day trough presentation there.  in the spatial correlation, that furnishes down stream +pnap over n/a.  the look from 270 -360 hours (324 blw), albeit  too extended to be 'strung out' over it ( lol ), this does not appear to balance the former signal enough imo.  it should be more meridian in structure than we are seeing here - ... it's likely there are some poorly resolved members distracting the mass conservation.  the 'correction vector' is pointed toward an amplitude, so if neg domain situates out there's likely more NW flow through central canada. 

image.png.d22af36dbc6178cff0af706523d83f5f.png

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might not be too fanciful to leap the idea that correction events are above median potential through that period. 

we used to have a notion up in my uml days. it seemed to work remarkably well when looking back through the annuls.   'first it gets warm; then it gets cold.  boom'   

... we have a modeled -epo that is in tandem with a -pna prior to the 15th; the concurrence of these two indexes purports a warm flash/synoptic expression of some kind east of chicago.  gfs has been flirting with this ...   this could be emblematic of the 'gets warm' however well it expresses.  then we see the fledgling/extended means to turn cold and well...  

lots of time of engage in other hobbies first.  heh.   but who are we kidding. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s always difficult through the written word…and hard to decipher sometimes between fun, and nastiness. So a forum like this is dependent and at the mercy of that. Many times that’s what causes the issues.  
 

How’s Sunday looking?  If we can score a couple(2-3) there…some of us would be closing in on climo snow for December. 

I think there are only a couple of folks that are truly aiming to be villains. For the rest, I assume they’re having mini-melts or trying to be funny. Everyone has to realize that it takes a certain level of emotional investment just to be on a wx board. Nobody is spending time here to wistfully discuss 70s and sunshine. Winter is the pinnacle of the wx year for many, so when it’s bad it’s bad and when it happens year after year it compounds the pain. We can’t rant about troughs getting buried in Baja again to our spouses, most wouldn’t get it like the nuts here lol.

I think I may have one person on the entire board blocked or whatever for crazy talk—but it also helps to stay away from anything that’s non wx. I don’t care about anyone’s take on politics or social issues here. I have enough of that everywhere else. 

As for Sunday, maybe a coating to inch? I still like the trend but it’s incremental. If we could get some CAD early next week that could be good for some wintry precip too. I think the next few weeks we just have to hope for well timed events. Not being a blowtorch through Canada helps narrow the odds but it’s obviously an uphill climb.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a very wedged look on GFS for Monday/Tuesday. Gonna have to watch for frozen/freezing precip over interior even if it’s light in that setup. 

Surface is torched down here verbatim, but it’s a somewhat chilly look just aloft. I’m thinking a stronger vort offshore would help?

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a very wedged look on GFS for Monday/Tuesday. Gonna have to watch for frozen/freezing precip over interior even if it’s light in that setup. 

adding to this ... for a change the n-of-maine polar high is actually trending more resistant for a change.  typically we get inside of 120 hours and it's sliding off in the trends -

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