December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[Patrick-02540]

  On 12/5/2024 at 8:22 PM, Lava Rock said:

Wolfie looking on

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Wolfie about to gun the engine, is what I see happening. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/5/2024 at 11:50 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i never see the point in completely canning the majority of a month when parts of SNE just got their first accumulating snow of the year last night. it looks pretty crappy but stuff can just pop up sometimes

also there looks like a warm front / WAA light snow possibility tomorrow night. maybe an inch in spots. it's something

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Also, all this cancellation stuff is based on whether these long term modeling scenarios(ensembles/weeklies) are completely correct on 12/5, with 26 more days left in the month.  And as you point out, if absolutely nothing at all pops up. That again is a big if on 12/5, and also as we start to close in on our favored climo as well.  So I completely agree.  

[WxWatcher007]

Heh, 12/5 did strike again lol

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:19 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Heh, 12/5 did strike again lol

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Good point. 

[alex]

I certainly don’t see reasons to panic up here. We’ve seen several bad runs but currently there are plenty of snow chances on both the ECMWF and GFS. Could be a disaster? Sure, but that doesn’t seem certain or even likely at this juncture

[alex]

Also snows really picked up again in intensity tonight 

[weathafella]

  On 12/5/2024 at 11:30 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

Not great not terrible, but better than the doomer scenerio

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

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Primshine-stop pontificating on clown range op solutions.  Post ensembles to make your point.

[ORH_wxman]

I wouldn’t be punting the rest of the month when the last 10-12 days has a pretty decent amount of uncertainty. 
 

I know weeklies aren’t exactly the poster child of accuracy but here is the 5 day H5 mean ending Xmas (Dec 21-25)….

 

Then here is Dec 26-30

 

Doesn’t exactly scream punt. I’m skeptical of any good look these days but there isn’t a strong empirical reason to assume it’s going to fail either. 

[CoastalWx]

I mean we did have a clipper go to Montreal and deliver 1-8” in many areas in early December. Who knows? Maybe we don’t know? It’s possible? We just don’t know?

[512high]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:43 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn’t be punting the rest of the month when the last 10-12 days has a pretty decent amount of uncertainty. 
 

I know weeklies aren’t exactly the poster child of accuracy but here is the 5 day H5 mean ending Xmas (Dec 21-25)….

 

Then here is Dec 26-30

 

Doesn’t exactly scream punt. I’m skeptical of any good look these days but there isn’t a strong empirical reason to assume it’s going to fail either. 

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Well maybe we can pull something off, I hope next week can be a "Hail Mary", was looking interesting .

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:47 AM, CoastalWx said:

I mean we did have a clipper go to Montreal and deliver 1-8” in many areas in early December. Who knows? Maybe we don’t know? It’s possible? We just don’t know?

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CNE/NNE might actually get a decent SWFE next week if that high keeps trending a bit. Think SNE might be too far south but maybe down to pike region could get a bit if things broke right. It’s obviously going to be a see-saw with the west coast troughs reestablishing itself each round between now and the next two weeks, but there’s also intervals of cold too so can’t rule out something timed well. 
 

Guidance has been actually semi-consistent with trying to rebuild the PNA ridge by the 20th or so. Hopefully I doesn’t get pushed back or erased altogether. MJO would kind of support it though going into phase 7 during December La Niña. That promotes Aleutian low. 

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:30 AM, weathafella said:

Primshine-stop pontificating on clown range op solutions.  Post ensembles to make your point.

To be fair it was all I had to go off of while I was waiting for the GEFS

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[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:30 AM, weathafella said:

Primshine-stop pontificating on clown range op solutions.  Post ensembles to make your point.

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He angry 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:53 AM, ORH_wxman said:

CNE/NNE might actually get a decent SWFE next week if that high keeps trending a bit. Think SNE might be too far south but maybe down to pike region could get a bit if things broke right. It’s obviously going to be a see-saw with the west coast troughs reestablishing itself each round between now and the next two weeks, but there’s also intervals of cold too so can’t rule out something timed well. 
 

Guidance has been actually semi-consistent with trying to rebuild the PNA ridge by the 20th or so. Hopefully I doesn’t get pushed back or erased altogether. MJO would kind of support it though going into phase 7 during December La Niña. That promotes Aleutian low. 

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I still think an icestorm is a possibility for portions of interior C and SNE . That high has ended any thoughts of warm 50’s and 60’s that some folks were calling for 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:56 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I still think an icestorm is a possibility for portions of interior C and SNE . That high has ended any thoughts of warm 50’s and 60’s that some folks were calling for 

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I’d like to see a better push of the arctic airmass in the low levels for a larger scale icing threat. We don’t ever get back into the real cold after the clipper overnight Saturday night. But it’s not far away so if we trended things further south then it’s possible but I’m not sure how much more we can trend this inside of 4-5 days. 

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/6/2024 at 1:02 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I’d like to see a better push of the arctic airmass in the low levels for a larger scale icing threat. We don’t ever get back into the real cold after the clipper overnight Saturday night. But it’s not far away so if we trended things further south then it’s possible but I’m not sure how much more we can trend this inside of 4-5 days. 

Would follow the trend... South and colder as it gets closer

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[bwt3650]

  On 12/6/2024 at 1:02 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I’d like to see a better push of the arctic airmass in the low levels for a larger scale icing threat. We don’t ever get back into the real cold after the clipper overnight Saturday night. But it’s not far away so if we trended things further south then it’s possible but I’m not sure how much more we can trend this inside of 4-5 days. 

Difference this year vs. last being the cold nearby?


.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:53 AM, ORH_wxman said:

CNE/NNE might actually get a decent SWFE next week if that high keeps trending a bit. Think SNE might be too far south but maybe down to pike region could get a bit if things broke right. It’s obviously going to be a see-saw with the west coast troughs reestablishing itself each round between now and the next two weeks, but there’s also intervals of cold too so can’t rule out something timed well. 
 

Guidance has been actually semi-consistent with trying to rebuild the PNA ridge by the 20th or so. Hopefully I doesn’t get pushed back or erased altogether. MJO would kind of support it though going into phase 7 during December La Niña. That promotes Aleutian low. 

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I just want a decent event for this area. I’m happy for those who forgot snow, but it gut punches me especially when areas to my south did better. Ok I get it. I had some epic luck years ago. I’m crying Uncle now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18z Euro has a stripe of 1-3” from Berks into NE CT and N RI Saturday night with 1” either side of that 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/6/2024 at 1:22 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

18z Euro has a stripe of 1-3” from Berks into NE CT and N RI Saturday night with 1” either side of that 

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Looks more like C-1” to me. But if that one trends a little sharper then it could be a bit more. 

[NW_of_GYX]

What a monster that D8 cutter is. Wipe it clean to gaspe start all over type system. At least it’s not the 25th 

[greenmtnwx]

  On 12/6/2024 at 1:29 AM, NW_of_GYX said:

What a monster that D8 cutter is. Wipe it clean to gaspe start all over type system. At least it’s not the 25th 

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That’s what I was saying earlier. It may not be as warm as recent cutters of yore, but that’s a good 3” qpf Belleayre mudslide wipe out the early season gains cutter.

[MJO812]

DT was on the Joe Cioffi show this evening talking about the pattern. He loves a big change to colder and snowier at the end of this month and next month .

https://www.youtube.com/live/mWL0xRd1dSs?si=Yh5-ifZrT0JFeNSx

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/6/2024 at 1:22 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

18z Euro has a stripe of 1-3” from Berks into NE CT and N RI Saturday night with 1” either side of that 

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Beer

[MJO812]

More snow for you guys 

[weathafella]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:54 AM, Prismshine Productions said:

To be fair it was all I had to go off of while I was waiting for the GEFS

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

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I give you permission to wait until the gefs.  Using a 384 op is basically worthless especially when it’s been changing dramatically run to run.

[MJO812]

Icon

[mreaves]

  On 12/6/2024 at 1:20 AM, CoastalWx said:

I just want a decent event for this area. I’m happy for those who forgot snow, but it gut punches me especially when areas to my south did better. Ok I get it. I had some epic luck years ago. I’m crying Uncle now. 

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Freudian slip?

[bwt3650]

  On 12/6/2024 at 3:22 AM, MJO812 said:

More snow for you guys 

You need to take a trip up to jay for a weekend. Even if you don’t ski, just to walk around in feet of snow and watch it snow for hours on end after what the last two nyc winters have been would be like Charlie sheen walking into a room full of coke and hookers for you.


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[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/6/2024 at 12:47 AM, CoastalWx said:

I mean we did have a clipper go to Montreal and deliver 1-8” in many areas in early December. Who knows? Maybe we don’t know? It’s possible? We just don’t know?

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It will change so many times. Don’t even bother looking.