December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[DavisStraight]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I lost power for 10 days in 2011 and I would do anything for a event like that again.. trees going down and constant shotgun blast.. neighborhood looked like a bomb went off it was awesome!! I was glad to be in the valley for that storm 

I lost it for 7 and wouldn't mind as much if it happens again since I have a wood stove and generator, but it wasn't so much fun back then.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are starting to  get away from the prolonged torch.

 

 

 

Holy blocking and ridge out west

The warmth happens after this snapshot as the trough lifts out. The SE ridge builds and connects with the N Atlantic ridge while a trough starts to dig into Cabo. 

[MJO812]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The warmth happens after this snapshot as the trough lifts out. The SE ridge builds and connects with the N Atlantic ridge while a trough starts to dig into Cabo. 

The AO is still negative and projected to be negative.  I doubt the weather will be warm for a long period.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The AO is still negative and projected to be negative.  I doubt the weather will be warm for a long period.

Since you’re using the op, GL.

it’s going to get ugly for a stretch. How long is tbd. Hopefully no grinch.

[Prismshine Productions]

Since you’re using the op, GL.
it’s going to get ugly for a stretch. How long is tbd. Hopefully no grinch.

Might get lucky, pattern looks to be in the process to flip back right around Christmas

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Since you’re using the op, GL.

it’s going to get ugly for a stretch. How long is tbd. Hopefully no grinch.

I don't even care if there's a foot of snow, as long as its cold Christmas.

[kdxken]

 

[H2Otown_WX]

GFS and Euro are vastly different beyond 12/15. They both have a chilly few days after next Wednesday's torch but the Euro insists on a -EPO with modest ridging in AK to help keep the cold air source close enough to prevent an all out torch. The GFS otoh has the dreaded GoA low and a strong SE ridge. It'll be interesting to see which one is closer to verifying.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

GFS and Euro are vastly different beyond 12/15. They both have a chilly few days after next Wednesday's torch but the Euro insists on a -EPO with modest ridging in AK to help keep the cold air source close enough to prevent an all out torch. The GFS otoh has the dreaded GoA low and a strong SE ridge. It'll be interesting to see which one is closer to verifying.

Perhaps somewhat of a compromise, but the GFS probably has more of a grasp.

[H2Otown_WX]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perhaps somewhat of a compromise, but the GFS probably has more of a grasp.

Yeah, you're probably right. The EPS looks more like the GFS OP. Definitely higher heights than its own OP run. Do you think it's close the shades til after New Year's? That would line up with your outlook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

Yeah, you're probably right. The EPS looks more like the GFS OP. Definitely higher heights than its own OP run. Do you think it's close the shades til after New Year's? That would line up with your outlook.

The holiday week may begin the transition, but we probably aren't seeing a significant snow event throughout the majority of SNE until 2025.

[CoastalWx]

Snow or torch next week?

[Bryan63]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Snow or torch next week?

Yes

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Snow or torch next week?

Torch.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Snow or torch next week?

Torch

Models are warm for the wave 

[Hazey]

I'd lean pessimistic. Snow for the holidays gonna be another huge uphill climb but we are used to that by now. Fingers crossed for a festive miracle.

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

I lost power for 10 days in 2011 and I would do anything for a event like that again.. trees going down and constant shotgun blast.. neighborhood looked like a bomb went off it was awesome!! I was glad to be in the valley for that storm 

You would have loved to be in Templeton in 2008 for the ice storm.  Massive massive damage

[Great Snow 1717]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Snow or torch next week?

Torch

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Torch

Agree!!

[CoastalWx]

Looks like we go back to late October next week. It was a good December.

[mahk_webstah]

maybe this trends generally  better, as have the last 2 storms.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The holiday week may begin the transition, but we probably aren't seeing a significant snow event throughout the majority of SNE until 2025.

It's just a repeat of the last decade. I'm not optimistic until a full scale change occurs. 

[DJln491]

torch for most, snow for some

[WxWatcher007]

When winters were winters and storms were storms

 

[NW_of_GYX]

Torch cancel here next week. Beyond that the modeled pattern at h5 is no bueno but all caveats apply to sensible weather forecasts at that range. 

[TheMainer]

Just now, NW_of_GYX said:

Torch cancel here next week. Beyond that the modeled pattern at h5 is no bueno but all caveats apply to sensible weather forecasts at that range. 

Hoping we get away with just some 40's and a couple rain showers at most up here, winter is well on its way currently and would stink to lose that progress 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When winters were winters and storms were storms

 

Yes

[NW_of_GYX]

Just now, TheMainer said:

Hoping we get away with just some 40's and a couple rain showers at most up here, winter is well on its way currently and would stink to lose that progress 

We have a lot more runway than SNE. A well timed scooter high and we SWFE. GEFS pumps a serious ridge but there’s still cold lurking in our source region. Its not an all out Canadian torch

[WxWatcher007]

Might be worth watching the weekend? We’ve seen a weak signal for something but the 06z Euro gets snow over much of the region Sunday morning.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Might be worth watching the weekend? We’ve seen a weak signal for something but the 06z Euro gets snow over much of the region Sunday morning.

Yeah weak clipper.