December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[ineedsnow]

Meh snow to ice to rain

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Meh snow to ice to rain

Don't worry, that solution will change ten times (or more) between now and then

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM has an icing threat 12/11-12/12....16 year anniversary, hard to believe.

[alex]

I’m still in Mexico but looks like it started snowing quite hard at home. Not sure why, we don’t get any LE snow

[HoarfrostHubb]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM has an icing threat 12/11-12/12....16 year anniversary, hard to believe.

One of the more impactful weather events I've ever been in

[Layman]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One of the more impactful weather events I've ever been in

I was mentioning this storm to my wife just the other day.  We had taken the kids to the North Shore Mall for some Christmas shopping and got back to the Portsmouth area right around 6pm.  It had been misting/drizzling on the way back and we made one last stop at the Best Buy plaza in Newington.  Came out to the car and slid on the thin sheet of ice forming on the pavement.  I laughed out loud and said "made it back just in time!"  No issues driving home from there w/AWD and Blizzaks.

About 6 or 7 days later we got our power back.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM has an icing threat 12/11-12/12....16 year anniversary, hard to believe.

ORH only?

[MJO812]

The only Blizzard that I will see anytime soon.

[Lava Rock]

48 minutes ago, alex said:

I’m still in Mexico but looks like it started snowing quite hard at home. Not sure why, we don’t get any LE snow

is your cam down? not working for me.

[brooklynwx99]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t mean to bring anyone down. I hope I’m violently wrong like I was early December. I’m just frustrated and disgusted.

speaking of disgust, it's always morbidly amusing how when we get a trough, we gets vorts like this:

meanwhile, the W US and Rockies get a trough for 36 hours and they get screamers like this:

the worst thing is that I'm not sure if you can even really chalk that kind of random crap up to anything more than bad luck. agreed that it's insanely frustrating how almost everything seems to not break our way. hopefully our luck changes soon

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, ariof said:

Is that LES off of Champlain?

It’s likely off the Great Lakes.  It’s just moisture entrained in the flow and upslope into the mountains.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s likely off the Great Lakes.  It’s just moisture entrained in the flow and upslope into the mountains.

Flow is more NW. idk…looked like a little moisture flux from Champlain enhancing the upslope already there. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Over 1,000 days since parts of E MA have seen over 4+ inches? Could that be right?

edit: it feels like it here 

I know Boston hit that a week or so ago (1000 days since last 4" snowfall)

 

Edit - Nov 24 was the 1000 day mark

[powderfreak]

48 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Flow is more NW. idk…looked like a little moisture flux from Champlain enhancing the upslope already there. 

Yeah you’re right, I was thinking moisture entrained in the flow but it is deeper layer NW.  Last night it seemed more westerly off Ontario.

Theres been a nice standing wave in town fluffing out big flakes.  Thing just sits there and fires downstream of Mansfield.

[Typhoon Tip]

those backward sloping vorticity fields in troughs are becoming more and more familiar since the late 1990s.   what we're observing now in Brook's post above is evidence of the same aspect, and it is caused by a plague of speed saturation in the mid latitude, ambient flow. 

it's going on because the boreal heights of winters' onsets are compressing against what is ( most likely ) cc attributed elevated/residual heights at lower latitudes. this creates large gradient that is mechanically expressed as a faster geogstrophic wind.

as an aside, a hint to this reality is that the glaam scalar values have been lower over the last ( in particular 10 to 20 years ). why?  the sub-tropical jets are weakening, and the polar jets are becoming the stronger and more effective momentum transfer mechanisms.   subtropical jets have a bigger radius variable in the momentum equations, (  radius   x   mass   x   velocity ),  because lower latitudes are closer to the axis of earth's rotation.  by mid latitudes, the angle is 45 deg and ... i think the above becomes  trig function  X  mass X  velocity ... which yields a lower glaam. 

now that heads are aching ... my work here is complete. 

that means that as the wind maxes are pushed N, the glaam goes mathematically down, because higher latitudes winds have a bigger axis of rotation angle.    this is proof of what i have arguing over the last 15 years, when the quickening wind was being observed ... not just by me wrt to weather chart and model data, but by countless reports of jet flight historically low flight times along west to east routes, at mid and high latitudes over that same time span. i'd also argue that perturbation (system event) translation speeds have also been faster too, but etc..

s/w has a wind maximum of 110 kts ( say ...).  in 1970, the ambient wind outside of the the s/w region is only 50 or so knots.  that means that the s/w has a delta of 60 kts.   in 2024, a 110 kt s/w wind max has a delta against an already elevated wind ambience of of 70 or 80 or so ... so the delta is 30.  that's the same as saying 30 kts of wind mechanics are being absorbed; that sloping backward picture is the manifestation of that in illustration.

i keep seeing that over and over again.  a saga when the distant telecon spreads begin signaling a negative polar fields with favorable pnap across the east pac/continent ... then, it starts to show up in the operational runs ( usually with 300+ hour perfectly sculpted bombs )...but what happens is a lot of the absorption shit. what's also kind of interesting is that we also are increasing the intervals of these occurrence, because in general ... the pattern residences are shorter leased by proxy of the unstable resonance.  so, the storm frequency is actually kind of the same, even though the above.

[Layman]

I've been complaining about lower glaam scalar values being expressed as faster geogstrophic winds for years and it always seems to fall on deaf ears.  Glad to see someone else is onto this as well. /JK!

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

those backward sloping vorticity fields in troughs are becoming more and more familiar since the late 1990s.   what we're observing now in Brook's post above is evidence of the same aspect, and it is cause by a plague of speed saturation in the mid latitude, ambient the flow. 

it's going on because as the boreal heights of winters' onsets are compressing against what is ( most likely ) cc attributed elevated/residual heights at lower latitudes, this creates large gradient that is mechanically expressed as a faster geogstrophic wind.

as an aside, a hint to this reality is that the glaam scalar values have been lower over the last ( in particular 10 to 20 years ). why?  the sub-tropical jets are weakening, and the polar jets are becoming stronger and more dominate momentum transfer mechanisms.   subtropical jets have a bigger radius variable in the momentum equations, (  radius   x   mass   x   velocity ),  because lower latitudes are closer to the axis of earth's rotation.  by mid latitudes, the angel is 45 deg and ... i think it's its the arc tan(theta) X  mass X  velocity ... which yields a lower glaam. 

not that heads are aching ... my work here is complete. 

that means that as the wind maxes are pushed N, the glaam goes mathematically down, because higher latitudes winds have a bigger axis of rotation angle.    this is proof of what i have arguing over the last 15 years, when the quickening wind was being observed ... not just by me wrt to weather chart and model data, but by countless reports of jet flight historically low flight times along west to east routes, at mid and high latitudes that because over this same time span. i'd also argue that perturbation (system event) translation speeds have also been faster too, but etc..

s/w has a wind maximum of 110 kts ( say ...).  in 1970, the ambient wind outside of the the s/w region is only 50 or so knots.  that means that the s/w has a delta of 60 kts.   in 2024, a 110 kt s/w wind max has a delta against an already elevated wind ambience of of 70 or 80 or so ... so the delta is 30.  that's the same as saying 30 kts of wind mechanics are being absorbed; that sloping backward picture is the manifestation of that in illustration.

i keep seeing that over and over again.  a saga when the distant telecon spreads begin signaling a negative polar fields with favorable pnap across the east pac/continent ... then, it starts to show up in the operational runs ( usually with 300+ hour perfectly sculpted bombs )...but what happens is a lot of the absorption shit. what's also kind of interesting is that we also are increasing the intervals of these occurrence, because in general ... the pattern residences are shorter leased by proxy of the unstable resonance.  so, the storm frequency is actually kind of the same, even though the

so what you are saying is, there is a sub tropical "warm front" that keeps pushing northward (CC induced). Only, it is hitting the polar jets further north than it typically would have pre-CC era. However, recently over the past 10-20 years, it has made it so far north during the winter season that a stronger battle has developed ie...stronger geostrophic winds? Just trying to see if I am on the right path of understanding what you have posted...

[ma blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

those backward sloping vorticity fields in troughs are becoming more and more familiar since the late 1990s.   what we're observing now in Brook's post above is evidence of the same aspect, and it is caused by a plague of speed saturation in the mid latitude, ambient the flow. 

it's going on because as the boreal heights of winters' onsets are compressing against what is ( most likely ) cc attributed elevated/residual heights at lower latitudes. this creates large gradient that is mechanically expressed as a faster geogstrophic wind.

as an aside, a hint to this reality is that the glaam scalar values have been lower over the last ( in particular 10 to 20 years ). why?  the sub-tropical jets are weakening, and the polar jets are becoming the stronger and more effective momentum transfer mechanisms.   subtropical jets have a bigger radius variable in the momentum equations, (  radius   x   mass   x   velocity ),  because lower latitudes are closer to the axis of earth's rotation.  by mid latitudes, the angle is 45 deg and ... i think the above becomes  trig function  X  mass X  velocity ... which yields a lower glaam. 

now that heads are aching ... my work here is complete. 

that means that as the wind maxes are pushed N, the glaam goes mathematically down, because higher latitudes winds have a bigger axis of rotation angle.    this is proof of what i have arguing over the last 15 years, when the quickening wind was being observed ... not just by me wrt to weather chart and model data, but by countless reports of jet flight historically low flight times along west to east routes, at mid and high latitudes that because over this same time span. i'd also argue that perturbation (system event) translation speeds have also been faster too, but etc..

s/w has a wind maximum of 110 kts ( say ...).  in 1970, the ambient wind outside of the the s/w region is only 50 or so knots.  that means that the s/w has a delta of 60 kts.   in 2024, a 110 kt s/w wind max has a delta against an already elevated wind ambience of of 70 or 80 or so ... so the delta is 30.  that's the same as saying 30 kts of wind mechanics are being absorbed; that sloping backward picture is the manifestation of that in illustration.

i keep seeing that over and over again.  a saga when the distant telecon spreads begin signaling a negative polar fields with favorable pnap across the east pac/continent ... then, it starts to show up in the operational runs ( usually with 300+ hour perfectly sculpted bombs )...but what happens is a lot of the absorption shit. what's also kind of interesting is that we also are increasing the intervals of these occurrence, because in general ... the pattern residences are shorter leased by proxy of the unstable resonance.  so, the storm frequency is actually kind of the same, even though the

[brooklynwx99]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

those backward sloping vorticity fields in troughs are becoming more and more familiar since the late 1990s.   what we're observing now in Brook's post above is evidence of the same aspect, and it is caused by a plague of speed saturation in the mid latitude, ambient the flow. 

it's going on because as the boreal heights of winters' onsets are compressing against what is ( most likely ) cc attributed elevated/residual heights at lower latitudes. this creates large gradient that is mechanically expressed as a faster geogstrophic wind.

as an aside, a hint to this reality is that the glaam scalar values have been lower over the last ( in particular 10 to 20 years ). why?  the sub-tropical jets are weakening, and the polar jets are becoming the stronger and more effective momentum transfer mechanisms.   subtropical jets have a bigger radius variable in the momentum equations, (  radius   x   mass   x   velocity ),  because lower latitudes are closer to the axis of earth's rotation.  by mid latitudes, the angle is 45 deg and ... i think the above becomes  trig function  X  mass X  velocity ... which yields a lower glaam. 

now that heads are aching ... my work here is complete. 

that means that as the wind maxes are pushed N, the glaam goes mathematically down, because higher latitudes winds have a bigger axis of rotation angle.    this is proof of what i have arguing over the last 15 years, when the quickening wind was being observed ... not just by me wrt to weather chart and model data, but by countless reports of jet flight historically low flight times along west to east routes, at mid and high latitudes that because over this same time span. i'd also argue that perturbation (system event) translation speeds have also been faster too, but etc..

s/w has a wind maximum of 110 kts ( say ...).  in 1970, the ambient wind outside of the the s/w region is only 50 or so knots.  that means that the s/w has a delta of 60 kts.   in 2024, a 110 kt s/w wind max has a delta against an already elevated wind ambience of of 70 or 80 or so ... so the delta is 30.  that's the same as saying 30 kts of wind mechanics are being absorbed; that sloping backward picture is the manifestation of that in illustration.

i keep seeing that over and over again.  a saga when the distant telecon spreads begin signaling a negative polar fields with favorable pnap across the east pac/continent ... then, it starts to show up in the operational runs ( usually with 300+ hour perfectly sculpted bombs )...but what happens is a lot of the absorption shit. what's also kind of interesting is that we also are increasing the intervals of these occurrence, because in general ... the pattern residences are shorter leased by proxy of the unstable resonance.  so, the storm frequency is actually kind of the same, even though the

I understand what you mean, but wouldn't the vorts also be weaker in the W US if part of it is a function of latitude? why do the vorts seem to be so much stronger in the West than in the East? we're talking about the same latitude... hence why I think some of it is also bad luck. the vort ejections have just been crappier here than there

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

I understand what you mean, but wouldn't the vorts also be weaker in the W US if part of it is a function of latitude? why do the vorts seem to be so much stronger in the West than in the East? we're talking about the same latitude... hence why I think some of it is also bad luck. the vort ejections have just been crappier here than there

It may have something to do with the crazy Atlantic SSTs which is why we keep seeing those -NAOs with SE ridges

[Prismshine Productions]

I understand what you mean, but wouldn't the vorts also be weaker in the W US if part of it is a function of latitude? why do the vorts seem to be so much stronger in the West than in the East? we're talking about the same latitude... hence why I think some of it is also bad luck. the vort ejections have just been crappier here than there

Rockies are also taller than the Apps/Greens/Whites (same chain but still concept applica) so that might help consolidate the vortex vs. having an open warm Atlantic to our east

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Lava Rock]

Euro and GFS spit out 2-5" for our hood through the 18th. not very exciting unless you like 50F+ around mid month.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I understand what you mean, but wouldn't the vorts also be weaker in the W US if part of it is a function of latitude? why do the vorts seem to be so much stronger in the West than in the East? we're talking about the same latitude... hence why I think some of it is also bad luck. the vort ejections have just been crappier here than there

the colder deltas are in the east.  the pacific injected s/w are riding along a very balanced medium, having traversed the entire pacific domain - which reaches to 55 N out there or whatever it is...  s/w's enter the western continent, which by virtue of proximity to the pac is not appreciably different.  however, by 100W the flow is ( mt torque ) instructed to tip s... the s/w goes s and that is intrinsically a nva as it rides down the negative slope of the l/w.   compounding this with the fact that it is colder at 45 N over the continent, the flow is also more compressed: the former aspect has always been there; the latter compression has been growing as the ambient gradient between s canada and florida ( rough metric ) is more sloped.

the whole luck thing for me...  it's like going to a football game where a c+ team is trying to win against an a- team...  luck can't cover the gap as well as if an a- team is playing an a- team.  you could almost say that the a c+ team was lucky the score was ever close.   

[eduggs]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It may have something to do with the crazy Atlantic SSTs which is why we keep seeing those -NAOs with SE ridges

14 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Rockies are also taller than the Apps/Greens/Whites (same chain but still concept applica) so that might help consolidate the vortex vs. having an open warm Atlantic to our east

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I agree it probably is related to ocean heat content and continental/terrain-ocean interactions... plus the steadily strengthening geostrophic wind due to stronger temperature gradients.

It's probably a feature that will become increasingly persistent in time due to planet warming.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I agree it probably is related to ocean heat content and continental/terrain-ocean interactions... plus the steadily strengthening geostrophic wind due to stronger temperature gradients.

It's probably a feature that will become increasingly persistent in time due to planet warming.

Once we flip back to a +PDO it'll likely be less of a problem since you'd tend to have a +PNA more often

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I understand what you mean, but wouldn't the vorts also be weaker in the W US if part of it is a function of latitude? why do the vorts seem to be so much stronger in the West than in the East? we're talking about the same latitude... hence why I think some of it is also bad luck. the vort ejections have just been crappier here than there

just  as an after thought

you know, i am always leery of those facets when we enter favorable patterns.   'how are we going to end up paying taxes on this shit this time' with an eye rolling.

  we started getting charlie browned by them about .. 9 years ago, but at around that time, my memory was like, 'hey ..this has been happening for a lot longer now that i think about it'

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Once we flip back to a +PDO it'll likely be less of a problem since you'd tend to have a +PNA more often

if/when said switch occurs ...

the pdo does not force the pattern.  it's a feedback from ocean-atmospheric coupling over a period of time.   not you per se, but there's seems to be a misconception about that.  once the pattern is there, there can be a secondary constructive sort of interference but it wasn't there first and it's overcome-able. 

having said that, the -pdo predominance may be an attribution result if that is the case, that's not lending a whole helluva lot of confidence that anything is going to push a +pdo mode - or if so, for very long

[ORH_wxman]

Weeklies try to reload the Aleutian low and rebuild a PNA ridge leading into the week of Xmas and keeps it around to some extent through New Years....we'll see how that actually plays out, but that could offer another window at something. There will be a lot of cold to tap into if we spike a ridge since the EPO/WPO cross polar setup stays constant over the top.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

so what you are saying is, there is a sub tropical "warm front" that keeps pushing northward (CC induced). Only, it is hitting the polar jets further north than it typically would have pre-CC era. However, recently over the past 10-20 years, it has made it so far north during the winter season that a stronger battle has developed ie...stronger geostrophic winds? Just trying to see if I am on the right path of understanding what you have posted...

heh ...glad you put 'warm front' in quotes there.   i mean, it's not like a warm front on the charts.   it's just warmer heights south than 20 + years ago.

even if only be 3 to 5 dm, that's significant enough generate more gradient induced, balanced basal flow rate around the hemisphere - and you are right, it's doing so at higher latitudes, where as a consequence to all of this, ...the southern jet is being 'robbed' so to speak ... i guess abandoned is more apropos.

also, think of all this as tendency - it's not like there won't be a subtropical jet anymore.    just talking about why the s/w mechanical smearing is become more and more prevalent.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hammer has 50’s and rain next week