WinterWolf Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: "the best december pattern in years" and it's a week of cool weather Ya…NYC sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: amazing consistency producing no snow in SNE over the last couple days on the models. That clipper has trended laughably far north of the last 48 hours. Definitely going to suck to roll snake eyes once again on a favorable window It never made sense to drop it as far south as some models were doing based on the ridge/trof positioning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya…NYC sucks. Same for SNE, in fact most of the NY area just north of the city has more snow on the year than all of SNE 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Just now, qg_omega said: Same for SNE Nothing like NYC…so sorry Charlie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: goodbye winter Attention-seeking behavior is for kids! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 6 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Attention-seeking behavior is for kids! so is tracking two inches of snow 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Seems like our heralded great pattern is only going to yield and inch or two of snow. Guidance completely lost the threat on the 8th. I suppose there's an outside chance it will come back but the pattern may be breaking down at that point. We've also trended warmer for the 11th which was looking like a potential icing event yesterday. Boo. EDIT: Didn't realize the GFS is still advertising a wintry outcome for the 10th/11th. Still way out there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Seems like our heralded great pattern is only going to yield and inch or two of snow. Guidance completely lost the threat on the 8th. I suppose there's an outside chance it will come back but the pattern may be breaking down at that point. We've also trended warmer for the 11th which was looking like a potential icing event yesterday. Boo. EDIT: Didn't realize the GFS is still advertising a wintry outcome for the 10th/11th. Still way out there... After the last half decade, even a perfect pattern on paper becomes “proceed with caution” in reality. I do think it’s important that the look we’re seeing is fundamentally different from the ones we’ve seen in recent years with troughs getting buried on the west coast. Having a much more favorable Pacific gives me some cautious hope that a blowtorch completely-close-the-shades pattern from Dec-March is less likely. We need to produce in our windows, absolutely. But we also need to remember climo at least down here in the tropics of CT remains essentially hostile until about mid-month. Getting on the board and not reverting to the annual blowtorch as we move into Christmas week (or having it on the horizon) is a win imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: goodbye winter 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: "the best december pattern in years" and it's a week of cool weather Give it up man. Your being passive aggressive with the purpose of trying to stir the pot is a low blow. Either be a part of the discussion with constructive criticism or stick a FORK in it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 46 minutes ago, forkyfork said: so is tracking two inches of snow I mean, I won’t argue there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Woof just saw euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Same for SNE, in fact most of the NY area just north of the city has more snow on the year than all of SNE Q.... What is today's date? Oh . It's December 1st. That's Snow that New York got was definitely a gift ( and an early one at that ). Why don't you go join hands with forkey fork and Allsnow and you guys can all sing kumbaya 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Give it up man. Your being passive aggressive with the purpose of trying to stir the pot is a low blow. Either be a part of the discussion with constructive criticism or stick a FORK in it. There’s a degree of schadenfreude that NYC folks can get when New England snow lovers get disappointed, because they themselves are so used to missing out. Especially during otherwise favorable +NAO patterns. It’s best to just let them troll as they cry in 50 degree average high temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 In other news, it seems that that Alaskan ridge might regenerate after a mid-month warmup. We also enter phase 7 in late Dec, but we may need to wait a few weeks for any other good chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: In other news, it seems that that Alaskan ridge might regenerate after a mid-month warmup. We also enter phase 7 in late Dec, but we may need to wait a few weeks for any other good chances AK ridge never really truly goes away. It reloads a bit west but this is very poleward so caution flags for the all-torch-all-the-time crowd despite New England looking warm on this prog…there’s certain types of patterns where it’s easier for torches on models here to underperform and this is one of them. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Just now, ORH_wxman said: AK ridge never really truly goes away. It reloads a bit west but this is very poleward so caution flags for the all-torch-all-the-time crowd despite New England looking warm on this prog…there’s certain types of patterns where it’s easier for torches on models here to underperform and this is one of them. Would that lead to a ridge bridge from Greenland to Alaska and a -pna or maybe the trough swings east under blocking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: After the last half decade, even a perfect pattern on paper becomes “proceed with caution” in reality. I do think it’s important that the look we’re seeing is fundamentally different from the ones we’ve seen in recent years with troughs getting buried on the west coast. Having a much more favorable Pacific gives me some cautious hope that a blowtorch completely-close-the-shades pattern from Dec-March is less likely. We need to produce in our windows, absolutely. But we also need to remember climo at least down here in the tropics of CT remains essentially hostile until about mid-month. Getting on the board and not reverting to the annual blowtorch as we move into Christmas week (or having it on the horizon) is a win imo. Good point about climo...what part of CT are you in? I guess when we have a pattern much more favorable than climo temp wise anyway you hope you can cash in with like a 6-10" type deal regardless of the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Ya cuz a snapshot at 15 days out is really high confidence. Go stir the pot in your own forum. Did someone say pot? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Would that lead to a ridge bridge from Greenland to Alaska and a -pna or maybe the trough swings east under blocking? NAO blocking feels unlikely given how strong the PV is. But what frequently happens when you have an AK ridge that poleward is the eastern ridge becomes flatter with time. So you end up with a gradient pattern with a lot of cold spilling over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAO blocking feels unlikely given how strong the PV is. But what frequently happens when you have an AK ridge that poleward is the eastern ridge becomes flatter with time. So you end up with a gradient pattern with a lot of cold spilling over the top. That’s a straight up winner up here and in sne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: I noticed the GFS ensembles trended weaker with the SW energy and this is becoming a wave almost purely driven by the NS. New run: Old run from 3 days ago: nobody responded to Scott’s woof but maybe it’s this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Did someone say pot? The smell of pot in NYC is a bit overwhelming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 7 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Good point about climo...what part of CT are you in? I guess when we have a pattern much more favorable than climo temp wise anyway you hope you can cash in with like a 6-10" type deal regardless of the calendar. I’m in East Hartford. I’d love to get an advisory event by mid-month and a warning level event by the end. That’d put me right around normal for the month. I’m always more bothered by a storm underperforming than a modeled pattern not popping a low. The tangible losses hurt me the most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 I don't care if its November 25th, December 8th, or February 10th...if the pattern you're in is supposedly favorable for snow and storms and you don't cash in during those periods...it's going to be awfully difficult to at least finish the season near average. Our seasons which are right around average and especially above-average, not only are we cashing in on the pattern but we're taking full advantage of it. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't care if its November 25th, December 8th, or February 10th...if the pattern you're in is supposedly favorable for snow and storms and you don't cash in during those periods...it's going to be awfully difficult to at least finish the season near average. Our seasons which are right around average and especially above-average, not only are we cashing in on the pattern but we're taking full advantage of it. I look pretty much on track right now ...probably end up too warm in December, but not bad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't care if its November 25th, December 8th, or February 10th...if the pattern you're in is supposedly favorable for snow and storms and you don't cash in during those periods...it's going to be awfully difficult to at least finish the season near average. Our seasons which are right around average and especially above-average, not only are we cashing in on the pattern but we're taking full advantage of it. Going to more to this... especially the farther south you are in the region. Obviously northern New England and higher elevations its much easier to snow, even in meh patterns or unfavorable storm tracks for those south in the region. You better cash in in the opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Woof just saw euro. Usually woof means a good thing….no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: nobody responded to Scott’s woof but maybe it’s this? It was just a comment on the euro. Haven’t seen ensembles. Not much to add from what Will said other than that can lead to high-pressure drilling down low level cold. We shall see, I’m not gonna get excited until I know it’s imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Usually woof means a good thing….no? Not verbatim lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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