CoastalWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here’s EPS. Despite OP run showing nada, there’s def a weak signal for a system around that same time the GFS is showing one…if we can tighten up that northern stream just a bit then we have something Yeah let’s hope we can do that. Gfs is close to something good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 If they’re on to something….We’ll take that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If they’re on to something….We’ll take that. First time I ever seen my area below normal on that map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 If they’re on to something….We’ll take that.A 40-50% chance hints at something beyond D15 imo...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: They did real well with this current cold spell. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If they’re on to something….We’ll take that. Well first week and probably into second week of December looks below normal. And you have to weigh the nearer term more heavily based on lower forecast skill in the long term. The second half of December could be average to slightly above and you'd still end up with that monthly temperature forecast in the northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 maybe it'll snow after the moderation ends! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Sweet. A 50-60% chance of not BN. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 goodbye winter 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They did real well with this current cold spell. Well, that’s why I said…”If they are on to something?” You said there is “skill” at a month out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: goodbye winter Ya cuz a snapshot at 15 days out is really high confidence. Go stir the pot in your own forum. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 DAY 9 12z GFS front end snow going to a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: DAY 9 12z GFS front end snow going to a mix SWFE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: goodbye winter Trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Kinda baffled by this sounding... Can someone more knowledgeable than me explain how Sleet can be present with no layers above freezing to induce that partial melt required for sleet to be present? This looks like an all snow soundingSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Just now, Prismshine Productions said: Kinda baffled by this sounding... Can someone more knowledgeable than me explain how Sleet can be present with no layers above freezing to induce that partial melt required for sleet to be present? This looks like an all snow sounding Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk too low resolution it seems. could easily be some mixing there is the model is underdoing the warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 too low resolution it seems. could easily be some mixing there is the model is underdoing the warm noseThanks Brooklyn, never hurts to ask a question to gain a better understanding Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 18 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Kinda baffled by this sounding... Can someone more knowledgeable than me explain how Sleet can be present with no layers above freezing to induce that partial melt required for sleet to be present? This looks like an all snow sounding Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Can be insufficient saturation in the snow growth region, lack of nucleation, temps too warm for crystallization etc... If conditions aren't sufficient, you get supercooled rain drops and then ice pellets instead of snowflakes even if the temperature is below freezing. But that sounding looks like snow or mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Can be insufficient saturation in the snow growth region, lack of nucleation, temps too warm for crystallization etc... If conditions aren't sufficient, you get supercooled rain drops and then ice pellets instead of snowflakes even if the temperature is below freezing. But that sounding looks like snow or mostly snow. It uses up a lot of oxygen to argue about soundings at D11 but you do you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 26 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Kinda baffled by this sounding... Can someone more knowledgeable than me explain how Sleet can be present with no layers above freezing to induce that partial melt required for sleet to be present? This looks like an all snow sounding Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Try the same location and time on weather.cod. That looks like low resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Try the same location and time on weather.cod. That looks like low resolution. Yep, weather.cod shows snowSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: goodbye winter You say goodbye, and I say hello, hello hello... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 38 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Kinda baffled by this sounding... Can someone more knowledgeable than me explain how Sleet can be present with no layers above freezing to induce that partial melt required for sleet to be present? This looks like an all snow sounding Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Without digging into it, my best guess is perhaps ptype is based on thickness. You could conceivably have thicknesses that are equivalent of having a layer above freezing without actually being above freezing (if they sounding was close enough to 0C over a large enough layer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 36 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Kinda baffled by this sounding... Can someone more knowledgeable than me explain how Sleet can be present with no layers above freezing to induce that partial melt required for sleet to be present? This looks like an all snow sounding Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk The algorithm just doesn’t like the temp in the initial precip phase for full nucleation. Look in the little right-bottom box. It doesn’t like -8.8C at 575 so it’s trying to form some supercooled droplets with the ice crystals. That would be snow though. But it’s d10 so who really cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: The algorithm just doesn’t like the temp in the initial precip phase for full nucleation. Look in the little right-bottom box. It doesn’t like -8.8C at 575 so it’s trying to form some supercooled droplets with the ice crystals. That would be snow though. But it’s d10 so who really cares. Yes that makes sense, they're using Bourgouin, so if the initial phase was ZR (drizzle most likely) and S there is enough negative area to refreeze the ZR to PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 amazing consistency producing no snow in SNE over the last couple days on the models. That clipper has trended laughably far north of the last 48 hours. Definitely going to suck to roll snake eyes once again on a favorable window 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 goodbye winterSo u won't be posting anymore?Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: So u won't be posting anymore? Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk "the best december pattern in years" and it's a week of cool weather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 28 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: You say goodbye, and I say hello, hello hello... We might not even get a warm up. Maybe a day or 2 of milder weather. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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