ORH_wxman Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 GEFS and EPS both warming us up mid-month for sure. I do like that the EPO/WPO ridging is maintaining though so that often limits the duration of warmups. As for before that…after the clipper, I think the best shot is more like 12/8ish. That look on GFS seems a lot better than the later 12/10 look on both Euro and GFS but given how far out 12/10 is, not gonna get too definitive there. Could easily look better in a span of a couple runs. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Not *too* terrible a look honestly...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS and EPS both warming us up mid-month for sure. I do like that the EPO/WPO ridging is maintaining though so that often limits the duration of warmups. As for before that…after the clipper, I think the best shot is more like 12/8ish. That look on GFS seems a lot better than the later 12/10 look on both Euro and GFS but given how far out 12/10 is, not gonna get too definitive there. Could easily look better in a span of a couple runs. Helluva way to run a warmup on the Geps at the end of its run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Warm up meaning warmer than what we’ll see leading up to mid month or meaning AN? Looks around normal to me, albeit warmer than the coming 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Mild up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 27 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Not *too* terrible a look honestly... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Definitely a close the shades look for at least a week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 21 minutes ago, DJln491 said: Warm up meaning warmer than what we’ll see leading up to mid month or meaning AN? Looks around normal to me, albeit warmer than the coming 10 days. Above. Remember normal today is well above in 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 I think we’re AOB now to almost mid month. AOA mid month to late December. Pattern starts changing back to colder between Christmas and new years, heading much below NYD to mid January with a dramatic flip warmer mid January into February. Snow is always a wildcard with obviously much better probability during the cold periods but still on the table for well timed events during the warmups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think we’re AOB now to almost mid month. AOA mid month to late December. Pattern starts changing back to colder between Christmas and new years, heading much below NYD to mid January with a dramatic flip warmer mid January into February. Snow is always a wildcard with obviously much better probability during the cold periods but still on the table for well timed events during the warmups. As good a guess as any. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 With Stratton not opening today, decided to snowshoe at Grout Pond. Beautiful day in the woods. Had about 16 to 18 inches of snow here at 2400 feet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Definitely a close the shades look for at least a week. Yeah that’s kind of gross. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that’s kind of gross. Weeklies looked pretty good at least. With that WPO/EPO ridging and no sign of consistent west coast troughing, we might see relaxations fairly short lived. We’ll see though…we’re always on edge when even a transient west coast trough hits these days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: As good a guess as any. The MJO is going into the unfavorable phases very weak. I doubt it controls the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Waiting for rays post on the 18z gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Waiting for rays post on the 18z gfs lol Congrats on clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Weeklies looked pretty good at least. With that WPO/EPO ridging and no sign of consistent west coast troughing, we might see relaxations fairly short lived. We’ll see though…we’re always on edge when even a transient west coast trough hits these days. Hopefully they’re correct this time. I fully expect a relaxation, just hopefully either not a full torch, or have it come around before the holidays. Gfs still doing something around the 8th to 9th. I’m still hoping we can grab something around that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully they’re correct this time. I fully expect a relaxation, just hopefully either not a full torch, or have it come around before the holidays. Gfs still doing something around the 8th to 9th. I’m still hoping we can grab something around that time. That’s a plowable event on the 8th with a big SWFE cooking a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 @weathafella I know you don’t trust the squirrels any more but maybe this guy from Quebec City is predicting a decent winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 4 minutes ago, mreaves said: @weathafella I know you don’t trust the squirrels any more but maybe this guy from Quebec City is predicting a decent winter. They’re fat everywhere this fall going into winter. We’ll see but I tend to think they’re lying conspirators. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s a plowable event on the 8th with a big SWFE cooking a few days later. Congrats. No plow here. It’s an interior and ENE pattern so not expecting more than mood snows until the west ridge backs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Storm signal on GFS around the 8-10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Congrats. No plow here. It’s an interior and ENE pattern so not expecting more than mood snows until the west ridge backs. As currently modeled its pike north. But it wouldn’t take much to include southern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 18z gfs has a massive ice storm for SNE for the 10-11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, George001 said: 18z gfs has a massive ice storm for SNE for the 10-11th It’s a SWFE which won’t be in that form. It depicts a cutter that can’t run up against the confluence. It could easily be a standard SWFE of snow to ice to rain for our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I guess for me I was hoping for something more widespread and at least advisory level in this current look, but wondering if that’s not going to happen. it's a specter that's looming. yup. this notion of getting through this interval with a huge underachievement relative to indicators - perhaps even nothing - has occurred to me. seeing a repeating behavior so far, but we'll see. just trying to bring some objectivity to the table. i'm noticing that the we have immediately in tandem with this, started this wave velocity problem again, the same as the last decade's worth of winters... maybe it's just the models, but it seems any attempt to bring cold into the 45th parallel immediately results in negative interference between s/w identity vs the basal gradient being too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said: Is that ice on the pond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 31 minutes ago, weathafella said: They’re fat everywhere this fall going into winter. We’ll see but I tend to think they’re lying conspirators. Not going with the fat squirrel indicator anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 25 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Is that ice on the pond? Yes, about half the pond is ice covered currently. The areas that get more shade.Yes, about half the pond is ice covered currently. The areas that get more shade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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