December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS and EPS both warming us up mid-month for sure. I do like that the EPO/WPO ridging is maintaining though so that often limits the duration of warmups. 
 

As for before that…after the clipper, I think the best shot is more like 12/8ish. That look on GFS seems a lot better than the later 12/10 look on both Euro and GFS but given how far out 12/10 is, not gonna get too definitive there. Could easily look better in a span of a couple runs. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Not *too* terrible a look honestly...

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[mitchnick]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS and EPS both warming us up mid-month for sure. I do like that the EPO/WPO ridging is maintaining though so that often limits the duration of warmups. 
 

As for before that…after the clipper, I think the best shot is more like 12/8ish. That look on GFS seems a lot better than the later 12/10 look on both Euro and GFS but given how far out 12/10 is, not gonna get too definitive there. Could easily look better in a span of a couple runs. 

Helluva way to run a warmup on the Geps at the end of its run.

[DJln491]

Warm up meaning warmer than what we’ll see leading up to mid month or meaning AN?  Looks around normal to me, albeit warmer than the coming 10 days. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Mild up?

[weathafella]

27 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Not *too* terrible a look honestly...

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Definitely a close the shades look for at least a week.

[weathafella]

21 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Warm up meaning warmer than what we’ll see leading up to mid month or meaning AN?  Looks around normal to me, albeit warmer than the coming 10 days. 

Above.  Remember normal today is well above in 2 weeks.

[MJO812]

[weathafella]

I think we’re AOB now to almost mid month.  AOA mid month to late December.  Pattern starts changing back to colder between Christmas and new years, heading much below NYD to mid January with a dramatic flip warmer mid January into February.  Snow is always a wildcard with obviously much better probability during the cold periods but still on the table for well timed events during the warmups.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think we’re AOB now to almost mid month.  AOA mid month to late December.  Pattern starts changing back to colder between Christmas and new years, heading much below NYD to mid January with a dramatic flip warmer mid January into February.  Snow is always a wildcard with obviously much better probability during the cold periods but still on the table for well timed events during the warmups.

As good a guess as any. 

[greenmtnwx]

With Stratton not opening today, decided to snowshoe at Grout Pond. Beautiful day in the woods. Had about 16 to 18 inches of snow here at 2400 feet.

[greenmtnwx]

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Definitely a close the shades look for at least a week.

Yeah that’s  kind of gross. 

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that’s  kind of gross. 

Weeklies looked pretty good at least. With that WPO/EPO ridging and no sign of consistent west coast troughing, we might see relaxations fairly short lived. We’ll see though…we’re always on edge when even a transient west coast trough hits these days. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

As good a guess as any. 

The MJO is going into the unfavorable phases very weak. I doubt it controls the pattern. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Waiting for rays post on the 18z gfs lol 

[MJO812]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Waiting for rays post on the 18z gfs lol 

Congrats on clipper

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies looked pretty good at least. With that WPO/EPO ridging and no sign of consistent west coast troughing, we might see relaxations fairly short lived. We’ll see though…we’re always on edge when even a transient west coast trough hits these days. 

Hopefully they’re correct this time. I fully expect a relaxation, just hopefully either not a full torch, or have it come around before the holidays. 
 

Gfs still doing something around the 8th to 9th. I’m still hoping we can grab something around that time.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully they’re correct this time. I fully expect a relaxation, just hopefully either not a full torch, or have it come around before the holidays. 
 

Gfs still doing something around the 8th to 9th. I’m still hoping we can grab something around that time.

That’s a plowable event on the 8th with a big SWFE cooking a few days later.

[mreaves]

@weathafella I know you don’t trust the squirrels any more but maybe this guy from Quebec City is predicting a decent winter. 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

@weathafella I know you don’t trust the squirrels any more but maybe this guy from Quebec City is predicting a decent winter. 

They’re fat everywhere this fall going into winter.  We’ll see but I tend to think they’re lying conspirators.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s a plowable event on the 8th with a big SWFE cooking a few days later.

Congrats. No plow here. It’s an interior and ENE pattern so not expecting more than mood snows until the west ridge backs.

[MJO812]

Storm signal on GFS around the 8-10.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats. No plow here. It’s an interior and ENE pattern so not expecting more than mood snows until the west ridge backs.

As currently modeled its pike north.  But it wouldn’t take much to include southern areas.

[George001]

18z gfs has a massive ice storm for SNE for the 10-11th

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

18z gfs has a massive ice storm for SNE for the 10-11th

It’s a SWFE which won’t be in that form.  It depicts a cutter that can’t run up against the confluence.  It could easily be a standard SWFE of snow to ice to rain for our location.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess for me I was hoping for something more widespread and at least advisory level in this current look, but wondering if that’s not going to happen.

it's a specter that's looming.  yup.  this notion of getting through this interval with a huge underachievement relative to indicators - perhaps even nothing - has occurred to me.  seeing a repeating behavior so far, but we'll see. 

just trying to bring some objectivity to the table.  i'm noticing that the we have immediately in tandem with this, started this wave velocity problem again,  the same as the last decade's worth of winters...  maybe it's just the models, but it seems any attempt to bring cold into the 45th parallel immediately results in negative interference between s/w identity vs the basal gradient being too much. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

Is that ice on the pond?

[DavisStraight]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

They’re fat everywhere this fall going into winter.  We’ll see but I tend to think they’re lying conspirators.

Not going with the fat squirrel indicator anymore?

[greenmtnwx]

25 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Is that ice on the pond?

Yes, about half the pond is ice covered currently. The areas that get more shade.Yes, about half the pond is ice covered currently. The areas that get more shade.