WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Best skiing of the year is in March. I love that winter month. Awesome sledding too most every year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Huh??? Winter doesn't end until March 21st. Unless something changed and I missed it. On average there's been orders of magnitude more snow in March than Decembers here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Morch can snow but it ain’t winter . Totally different month than Dec We go thru this every year If you’re talking about pack retention you are correct. March is come and go snow and pond ice becomes questionable, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: MJO goes to P6-7 so not necessarily a torch look. We’ll mild up mid month but I don’t think it’s a massive torch. At least right now. Whatever, that was sort of expected, but seems like we have limited chances to cash in between now and then. You can already see hints of the breakdown at day 10 now. That clipper has trended in the wrong direction, I think that was probably our best shot around here. Very frustrating continuation of the past few years. You’d think something has to break at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 I love how we miss the clipper and subsequent coastal on the gfs with surgical precision but the big Rainer on the 14th has no problem plowing through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I've lived in the Northern CT area for 54 years... and December has ALWAYS been an iffy month. Many more times than not we've gotten very little snow until the very end of the month. Some here talking like it's the first week of February LOL Yes sir. Some have Hallucinogenic expectations. And then spread them to others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 The GEFS is misaligned with the modeled teleconnections. The -NAO and -AO disappear by first few days of December. The EPS is already picking up on what the GEFS isn’t with sharp shift to + AN by the 10th. I believe this gets pushed forward in time, especially along the coastal plain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 8 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Losing December?..where?..First half of the month will be below normal temps..really don't know what you’re looking for?.And when it's cold it snows! Have to Agree. He looks for Deep snow in November, and even deeper in December. Kind of a tough standard to live up to in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I love how we miss the clipper and subsequent coastal on the gfs with surgical precision but the big Rainer on the 14th has no problem plowing through Well, it’s no secret you can lock cutters 10 days out. A coastal has a hundred mile window a cutter has a thousand mile window. maybe we can get some thing to pop while we are still cold around day 7-8. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You can already see hints of the breakdown at day 10 now. That clipper has trended in the wrong direction, I think that was probably our best shot around here. Very frustrating continuation of the past few years. You’d think something has to break at some point It did break, it was suppose to be a heater the next two weeks..so it changed completely. Geez, Give it a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 there probably is going to be a relaxation in the pattern, but it’s likely one where some AK ridging remains with a -PNA… there would be colder air in the US to tap into, so you’d just need to drop the gradient south like idk, it would be AN at times, but I wouldn’t exactly call it a torch 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I love how we miss the clipper and subsequent coastal on the gfs with surgical precision but the big Rainer on the 14th has no problem plowing through Come on man, what you're saying is the 14th is going to pan out where the others won't. I'm not saying that the two snow events have petered out on the latest model run, but doesn't mean they won't come back, nor does it mean that we're getting a big rainstorm on the 14. It could happen, but nothing 's written in stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It did break, it was suppose to be a heater the next two weeks..so it changed completely. Geez, Give it a chance. You’re changing the guidance narrative of the past 10 days to fit your opinion. Shocker. The N to BN pattern was very well advertised by guidance and most of us here didn’t bet against it. EPS, GEFS saw it weeks in advance and never lost it; in fact the signal strengthened with time. It’s the storm/snow part that you are after and you’re still missing outside of an advisory clipper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there probably is going to be a relaxation in the pattern, but it’s likely one where some AK ridging remains with a -PNA… there would be colder air in the US to tap into, so you’d just need to drop the gradient south like idk, it would be AN at times, but I wouldn’t exactly call it a torch Day 14-15…but not a horrid look. Go back a couple pages and see what day 14-15 looked like for today on the NWS prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 also, lol completely poo-pooing the colder window and assuming it’ll completely break down after this mammoth bust is kinda funny 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Best skiing of the year is in March. I love that winter month. When I could ski, I loved March skiing, I remember skiing in below zero weather in February, still was fun, just had to watch out for frostbite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there probably is going to be a relaxation in the pattern, but it’s likely one where some AK ridging remains with a -PNA… there would be colder air in the US to tap into, so you’d just need to drop the gradient south like idk, it would be AN at times, but I wouldn’t exactly call it a torch Which is why I went out to mention it’s not a torch too. Looks like some PAC energy sneaks under that ridge which is why temps get to AN. Maybe we can time something and get on the good side of the gradient. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Coldologists are killin’ it. Now how do they get promoted to snowologists? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: also, lol completely poo-pooing the colder window and assuming it’ll completely break down after this mammoth bust is kinda funny lol beat ya to it. But absolutely. Take with a grain of salt. What a flop that prog was. 100% incorrect. Astounding. But we had folks buying it hook, line and sinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 I guess for me I was hoping for something more widespread and at least advisory level in this current look, but wondering if that’s not going to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: You’re changing the guidance narrative of the past 10 days to fit your opinion. Shocker. The N to BN pattern was very well advertised by guidance and most of us here didn’t bet against it. EPS, GEFS saw it weeks in advance and never lost it; in fact the signal strengthened with time. It’s the storm/snow part that you are after and you’re still missing outside of an advisory clipper. Two weeks ago the NWS didn’t buy it lol. Really? Nobody is. CHanging anything. We’re just saying let’s see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Coldologists are killin’ it. Now how do they get promoted to snowologists? you of all people would know that snowfall is much more difficult to predict than both temperature and precipitation anomalies you don’t seem to be posting in good faith, though 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you of all people would know that snowfall is much more difficult to predict than both temperature and precipitation anomalies you don’t seem to be posting in good faith, though Tough to get snow at The Vatican. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You can already see hints of the breakdown at day 10 now. That clipper has trended in the wrong direction, I think that was probably our best shot around here. Very frustrating continuation of the past few years. You’d think something has to break at some point It’s just a relaxation period, everything remains on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 EPS has a pretty large ridge spike out west around 12/9-12/10. The only issue is that it doesn’t have to be snow if you phase too much crap to the west. That’s what the OP run did…granted it’s day 10-11 by the time the storm hits. GFS is def focusing on the shortwave a couple days earlier trying to bring something for 12/8. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess for me I was hoping for something more widespread and at least advisory level in this current look, but wondering if that’s not going to happen. I think that’s doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you of all people would know that snowfall is much more difficult to predict than both temperature and precipitation anomalies you don’t seem to be posting in good faith, though You gotta wonder about that guy??? Dam. Being the Pope, you’d think faith would be a priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has a pretty large ridge spike out west around 12/9-12/10. The only issue is that it doesn’t have to be snow if you phase too much crap to the west. That’s what the OP run did…granted it’s day 10-11 by the time the storm hits. GFS is def focusing on the shortwave a couple days earlier trying to bring something for 12/8. I think you’d rather want the GFS type solution… there’s much better cold air and confluence in place. wait too long and you can run into thermal issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I think you’d rather want the GFS type solution… there’s much better cold air and confluence in place. wait too long and you can run into thermal issues That gfs solution is close to a lot of fun, but seems like a stretch. We’ll see. It would be akin to a moral victory. Even if we had the euro cutter several days later, it just gets the monkey off your back that seemingly has been like a Gorilla on your back since 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 43 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Coldologists are killin’ it. Now how do they get promoted to snowologists? 37 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you of all people would know that snowfall is much more difficult to predict than both temperature and precipitation anomalies you don’t seem to be posting in good faith, though 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tough to get snow at The Vatican. 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You gotta wonder about that guy??? Dam. Being the Pope, you’d think you’d faith would be a priority. As with Faith there is Hope. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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