weatherwiz Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 whats so bad about 18z for the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: whats so bad about 18z for the clipper Didn’t look as good as 12z but it wasn’t that different. Shortwave wasn’t quite as sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 53 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 18z gfs looks like dog food for the 5th Yeah too far north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Didn’t look as good as 12z but it wasn’t that different. Shortwave wasn’t quite as sharp. Yeah I just looked at it wasn’t much different. We’ll see a million different variations in how sharp it is and other details between now and next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Yeah I just looked at it wasn’t much different. We’ll see a million different variations in how sharp it is and other details between now and next week. Flatter ridge on the GEFSSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah I just looked at it wasn’t much different. We’ll see a million different variations in how sharp it is and other details between now and next week. Need that or the one behind it to work out because the mid month big rainer lurks… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Need that or the one behind it to work out because the mid month big rainer lurks… but you're probably talking about CT...so yes. bone dry/cold clipper wx to cold pouring rains is most likely. but NNE may be ok Dec 6-13th roughly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: but you're probably talking about CT...so yes. bone dry/cold clipper wx to cold pouring rains is most likely. but NNE may be ok Dec 6-13th roughly Yea. SoP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 So we get a few flurries and snow showers. I expected to see accumulating snow based on the posts today. Why can’t we ever snow and catch a break? By middle of next, good ensemble agreement that a polar short wave dives southeast and may be accompanied by scattered snow showers (rain showers possible south coast) in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Again, mean trough axis appears too far east for any wave development to impact SNE. Behind the departing polar short wave, probably the coldest air of the season overspreads SNE late next week and/or next weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So we get a few flurries and snow showers. I expected to see accumulating snow based on the posts today. Why can’t we ever snow and catch a break? By middle of next, good ensemble agreement that a polar short wave dives southeast and may be accompanied by scattered snow showers (rain showers possible south coast) in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Again, mean trough axis appears too far east for any wave development to impact SNE. Behind the departing polar short wave, probably the coldest air of the season overspreads SNE late next week and/or next weekend. looking more like post Dec. 20th for anything significant outside of CNE/NNE. QPF won't be much of an issue so there's always the risk of a SNE elevation big 'un, after the dry spell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: So we get a few flurries and snow showers. I expected to see accumulating snow based on the posts today. Why can’t we ever snow and catch a break? By middle of next, good ensemble agreement that a polar short wave dives southeast and may be accompanied by scattered snow showers (rain showers possible south coast) in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Again, mean trough axis appears too far east for any wave development to impact SNE. Behind the departing polar short wave, probably the coldest air of the season overspreads SNE late next week and/or next weekend. Snowing in Massachusetts . That's what the nutmeg non-believers get. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Need that or the one behind it to work out because the mid month big rainer lurks… I’m locking that in already. I’m sure we’ll whiff on the clipper and that Rainer will be nailed from 2 weeks out. The vibe feels like a continuation of the last half decade 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. SoP. You gotta to have faith. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Need that or the one behind it to work out because the mid month big rainer lurks… We'll see, mid-month is intriguing, obviously closer to the coast there is still some unfavorable climo to contend with but at least there is a pretty low probability for a cutter. Just keep the period of interest now and then can focus on the details as we get closer. It's great seeing a pattern where northern stream energy is digging well into the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: looking more like post Dec. 20th for anything significant outside of CNE/NNE. QPF won't be much of an issue so there's always the risk of a SNE elevation big 'un, after the dry spell We may not get anything out of it, but we should have at least 1 shot at a significant nor’easter before then based on the 500mb pattern advertised across guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m locking that in already. I’m sure we’ll whiff on the clipper and that Rainer will be nailed from 2 weeks out. The vibe feels like a continuation of the last half decade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 This doesn’t feel like the last 2 winters at all. December was a torch last year, the first 2 weeks at least look legitimately cold with strong ridging out west. The pacific is much, much more favorable. I guess the risk is a 22-23 scenario? Honestly December 22 was pretty good, colder than average with plenty of storms. Honestly think we just got a bit unlucky there, roll the dice with that look and we get more snow 9/10 times. The issue with 22-23 was Jan and Feb torched when the NAO broke down. Just endless western troughing. The pacific looks a lot more favorable than Dec 2022 for this upcoming pattern. What happens after is unclear, but these next couple weeks we have a legitimate shot at significant snows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 23 minutes ago, kdxken said: Snowing in Massachusetts . That's what the nutmeg non-believers get. How much have you seen ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 27 minutes ago, kdxken said: Snowing in Massachusetts . That's what the nutmeg non-believers get. I had a few flakes here in central CT earlier, but that was it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sounds favorable for a -EPO/+NAO pattern. This is why I believe writing this coming winter off was a mistake. Yeah with the high solar activity there was support for a strong PV/+NAO/+AO winter. The latest guidance and current conditions support this, the pattern turns +NAO fairly quickly and the PV is expected to remain very strong into Jan. The signs are there that both the +NAO and the -EPO could be kind of stubborn. If the -EPO/+NAO recurs throughout winter that bodes well for our snow prospects in New England. History that has been a very snowy pattern for New England. Less so for the Mid Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How much have you seen ? Snowing here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Not goodWill you ever make a good take?...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Snowing here Well it was supposed to . He’s acting like he’s seen a flurry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well it was supposed to . He’s acting like he’s seen a flurry BOX drunk .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 6 PM Update: Short wave trough moving across PA this evening and generating scattered rain/snow showers downstream across eastern NY into western CT/MA. Lots of low level dry air across SNE with current dew pts in the 20s, yielding cloud bases in the 5000-8000 ft. Thus, much of this activity is drying up as it traverse SNE. Hence, most locations remain dry this evening, with little if any impacts (sprinkles and/or flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 19 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Not good What Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 EPS went -PNA and stayed thereSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How much have you seen ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 11 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: EPS went -PNA and stayed there Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk The mean I see doesn’t look like a -PNA at all. It does relax a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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