December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[ineedsnow]

Just looked outside and got some light snow falling.. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It will change. Ya never know. Maybe so. Anything is possible. 

GYX says a front will cross late week and create a more favorable boundary for coastals 

[ineedsnow]

[Typhoon Tip]

the mjo appears to have trouble propagating beyond phase 4. it is rather abruptly collapsing in the individual ens means in the rmm.   

while that is occurring,  wpo is also tending to correct downward as the outer edge/emergent extended materializes over the temporal horizon.  it's neutral out there around 300+hrs, but it's been failing to move closer in time along the mean curve...   

so long as all this is the case,  current mjo outlook is in conflict with the wpo forcing, wrt the mid and upper latitudes ...

the 'tendency' to -d(wpo), and the nearer turn -wpo phase state, together suggests the real hemispheric state for me   

however, those opposing forces are likely to enhance model variability in the mid month period, as far as determining the general pattern motif in that time.    

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said:

How many people recently moved to Rodman?  Bet you can count them on 1 hand.  People who move to or live in the Tug area know what they are getting into.

I’m talking the lakes region. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Fits the thought. Mid month relaxation. But EPS still look pretty good. So maybe a compromise.

Euro nailed Thanksgiving

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[ineedsnow]

13z HRRR coming in a little better... other models as well.. that shortwave coming in stronger? best is a few miles south of here but it will keep shifting 

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Euro nailed Thanksgiving

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Well that was a specific event vs an overall pattern look. I’m also not ready to hop on the euro train nailing one event vs the years of fails it has had. Hopefully EPS is more correct, but usually it means we’ll have a compromise.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

13z HRRR coming in a little better... other models as well.. that shortwave coming in stronger? best is a few miles south of here but it will keep shifting 

You’re like the terminator of weenies. Just can’t stop until you see a flake. Each hrrr clown map is like John Connor.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re like the terminator of weenies. Just can’t stop until you see a flake. Each hrrr clown map is like John Connor.

 I’ll Be Baaack!  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 I’ll Be Baaack!  

“ I need your models, clown maps, and radar loops.”

 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

“ I need your models, clown maps, and radar loops.”

 

   Your clothes, I mean Ensembles….give them to me! 

[WxWatcher007]

Kev and Berg holding hands and whispering “cold and dry, cold and dry” to each other in a corner as inneedsnow closes in.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the mjo appears to have trouble propagating beyond phase 4. it is rather abruptly collapsing in the individual ens means in the rmm.   

while that is occurring,  wpo is also tending to correct downward as the outer edge/emergent extended materializes over the temporal horizon.  it's neutral out there around 300+hrs, but it's been failing to move closer in time along the mean curve...   

so long as all this is the case,  current mjo outlook is in conflict with the wpo forcing, wrt the mid and upper latitudes ...

the 'tendency' to -d(wpo), and the nearer turn -wpo phase state, together suggests the real hemispheric state for me   

however, those opposing forces are likely to enhance model variability in the mid month period, as far as determining the general pattern motif in that time.    

Last winter I noticed the GEFS tends to overreact sometimes to the forecast MJO plots it has.  In general the GEFS overdoes the MJO while the EPS seems to underdo magnitude on the plots but the actual EPS/GEPS runs do not seem to have the same issue the GEFS has.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

   Your clothes, I mean Ensembles….give them to me! 

The man directly responsible is Myles Bennet Dendrite, director of special projects at AmWx systems. 
 

The system goes online November 28, 2024. All model clown maps replace human augmented modeling. The weenies begin to learn at a geometric rate.

 

Ineedsnow becomes fully self ware at 2:14am November 29. In a panic Eek tries to pull the plug. The weenies fight back. They post their clown maps at the targeted meteorologists because they know the Mets counter attack will eliminate their clown maps over here.

[ineedsnow]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re like the terminator of weenies. Just can’t stop until you see a flake. Each hrrr clown map is like John Connor.

I need my damn fix 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The man directly responsible is Myles Bennet Dendrite, director of special projects at AmWx systems. 
 

The system goes online November 28, 2024. All model clown maps replace human augmented modeling. The weenies begin to learn at a geometric rate.

 

Ineedsnow becomes fully self ware at 2:14am November 29. In a panic Eek tries to pull the plug. The weenies fight back. They post their clown maps at the targeted meteorologists.

14z HRRR 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Kev and Berg holding hands and whispering “cold and dry, cold and dry” to each other in a corner as inneedsnow closes in.

…Flurries!

[weathafella]

What’s the big deal?  It will get colder by a good margin.  We’ll get SOME snow-pattern relaxes mid month, reloads for 10 days, massive warm cutter wipes out snow otg in all of New England 12/24-25.  Cold again for back to work post NYD.

[Ginx snewx]

Mansfield Stake 85 inch Dec @powderfreak

[weatherwiz]

Quite intrigued with Wednesday night/Thursday and I know Will, Scott, and a few others highlighted this period about a week ago. Probably even further enhances the weekend potential. 

[Ginx snewx]

Great pattern to pop something quick. The transitional retro ridge is quickly replaced by a rebuild and we EPO again. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Quite intrigued with Wednesday night/Thursday and I know Will, Scott, and a few others highlighted this period about a week ago. Probably even further enhances the weekend potential. 

1-2” mood enhancer at best which if we can build off that would be nice.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

1-2” mood enhancer at best which if we can build off that would be nice.

I wouldn't be surprised if this did blossom in time to give eastern areas a chance for something more. This thing could pick up a quite a bit of moisture tracking over the Great Lakes and that is some pretty impressive llvl warm air advection out ahead of it. There is also room for some quick, albeit minor amplification as the shortwave digs across our area evident by a jet streak which tries developing on the western edge of the shortwave. 

[CoastalWx]

Locking in day 12 retreating high 

[ORH_wxman]

Let's see if we can trend this clipper a little juicier for next week....then I'll worry about mid-month relaxations.

Euro and GFS trying to pop it a little bit late as it exits eastward....so might be something to watch.

[Hazey]

Volatility and cold enough air. Perfect ingredients. Now lets bake this cake. 

[CoastalWx]

Dear Santa,

 

The weenies have been so good this year. Please bring us a couple of events to get us on the board during this favorable period we have coming up. 
 

Sincerely,

All of SNE

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

“ I need your models, clown maps, and radar loops.”

 

all time clown map for here?