December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[Kitz Craver]

Long time fellas, Happy Thanksgiving! Yoooo, I’m liking this December look of yore. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Long time fellas, Happy Thanksgiving! Yoooo, I’m liking this December look of yore. 

Good to see you Kitz. Happy Thanksgiving.  The look is encouraging for sure. 

[NorEastermass128]

Let’s get some snow on the ground to go with the cold. It’s been a sh!t year for me personally, so maybe Mother Nature can manifest some holiday cheer for once. 

[moneypitmike]

16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s literally nothing thru day 10 except chill and dry . What good does that do anyone ? The 10 day can kicking has begun .

Whatever happened to Kevin?  This imposter is such a Debbie Downer in every respect.  Insufferable.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Whatever happened to Kevin?  This imposter is such a Debbie Downer in every respect.  Insufferable.

Years and years of no snow . You used to do when it did snow which truly made many leave the board over those years. When the pattern looks snowy and if and when it  actually is snowing again.. the positive Kevin will be back . 

[bristolri_wx]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Whatever happened to Kevin?  This imposter is such a Debbie Downer in every respect.  Insufferable.

All the high dewpoints he roots for all summer has caused black brain mold. He’s just not himself. He’s been Torch-ed!

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Years and years of no snow . You used to do when it did snow which truly made many leave the board over those years. When the pattern looks snowy and if and when it  actually is snowing again.. the positive Kevin will be back . 

I’m not seeing the Stein look. 06z GFS is a train of festive clippers 12/5 and on capped with a meaty SWFE. Just an OP run, it’s definitely not dry though.

[Kitz Craver]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good to see you Kitz. Happy Thanksgiving.  The look is encouraging for sure. 

Yeah man. Farrrrr better than we have had in recent years. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I’m not seeing the Stein look. 06z GFS is a train of festive clippers 12/5 and on capped with a meaty SWFE. Just an OP run, it’s definitely not dry though.

It’s seems drier than normal thru about Dec 10 or so . There’s an outside chance of a very light event Wednesday nite next week 

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s seems drier than normal thru about Dec 10 or so . There’s an outside chance of a very light event Wednesday nite next week 

You know how these things work, storms pop up out of nowhere, we have the cold, that's the first ingredient.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You know how these things work, storms pop up out of nowhere, we have the cold, that's the first ingredient.

That could happen , but right now there’s a lot of HP. Maybe a few lucky towns get lucky with a lakes streamer .

[bristolri_wx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Years and years of no snow . You used to do when it did snow which truly made many leave the board over those years. When the pattern looks snowy and if and when it  actually is snowing again.. the positive Kevin will be back . 

I’m not really caring about clown maps but I am caring about this:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2024112806&fh=6

Look at Canada. That’s 384 hours of ensemble showing mostly below normal or normal temp anomalies at 850. Yes the Pacific drives the bus, but Canada provides the passengers. The last two winters there has not been a consistent normal to below normal cold source region in Canada to help us with the precip down here. I can count on least 5 or 6 storms discussed here where we saw favorable setups near the bench mark and ended up with slop and rain instead of snow due to thermals. We would see weeks of +10 anomolies NW of us. It only takes one or two degrees of thermal difference to go from boom to bust for snow accumulations in New England. Getting Canada colder means more chances for us.

While this could all end up dry and boring, it is very encouraging. More so than the last couple of seasons and in December, which have been ratters in recent memory for most in SNE. I would expect you would be able to see these differences as well.

Happy Thanksgiving and let’s all be thankful for some potential to cash in after the last couple of seasons of mostly boredom.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I’m not really caring about clown maps but I am caring about this:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2024112806&fh=6

Look at Canada. That’s 384 hours of ensemble showing mostly below normal or normal temp anomalies at 850. Yes the Pacific drives the bus, but Canada provides the passengers. The last two winters there has not been a consistent normal to below normal cold source region in Canada to help us with the precip down here. I can count on least 5 or 6 storms discussed here where we saw favorable setups near the bench mark and ended up with slop and rain instead of snow due to thermals. We would see weeks of +10 anomolies NW of us. It only takes one or two degrees of thermal difference to go from boom to bust for snow accumulations in New England. Getting Canada colder means more chances for us.

While this could all end up dry and boring, it is very encouraging. More so than the last couple of seasons and in December, which have been ratters in recent memory for most in SNE. I would expect you would be able to see these differences as well.

Happy Thanksgiving and let’s all be thankful for some potential to cash in after the last couple of seasons of mostly boredom.

Great post. 100% agree. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I’m not really caring about clown maps but I am caring about this:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2024112806&fh=6

Look at Canada. That’s 384 hours of ensemble showing mostly below normal or normal temp anomalies at 850. Yes the Pacific drives the bus, but Canada provides the passengers. The last two winters there has not been a consistent normal to below normal cold source region in Canada to help us with the precip down here. I can count on least 5 or 6 storms discussed here where we saw favorable setups near the bench mark and ended up with slop and rain instead of snow due to thermals. We would see weeks of +10 anomolies NW of us. It only takes one or two degrees of thermal difference to go from boom to bust for snow accumulations in New England. Getting Canada colder means more chances for us.

While this could all end up dry and boring, it is very encouraging. More so than the last couple of seasons and in December, which have been ratters in recent memory for most in SNE. I would expect you would be able to see these differences as well.

Happy Thanksgiving and let’s all be thankful for some potential to cash in after the last couple of seasons of mostly boredom.

I am in full agreement there. Canada being cold is huge and so is keeping that ridge in Alaska out of there . Just have Dec 1989 in back of mind. Hopefully we don’t go that route. Once we see snow actually materialize, I’ll feel much better about things . 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

One of the few places where a significantly warmer regional climate translates to a lot more annual snowfall.

I don’t think a lot of the people who moved to that area recently are ready for that though. 

Snow cover so high that blocks out your windows for weeks on end gets old. You really gotta winterize your home and mind to stay positive through that. 

Had a camp just east of the tug for a long time myself.  I miss it.

[Torch Tiger]

40 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Had a man just east of here tug me for a long time myself.  I miss it.

could have some fun with this one

[weathafella]

Well get some snow otg for sure before 12/10.  Keep hope alive.

[cleetussnow]

26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

could have some fun with this one

Jhc.  

[MJO812]

[Damage In Tolland]

Sounds snowy . Clipper gone 

This pattern favors dry weather overall with below normal
temperatures. Highs will struggle to reach 40s most of next week
with lows in teens and 20s. Blended guidance does show some low
(chance) PoPs for rain or snow showers around Cape Cod and Islands
in response to ocean effect but most of this should end up over
coastal waters SE of Islands. It is possible much of region sees
some light snow/flurries by Thu as a weak warm front lifts through
New England but at this point it does not look very impactful.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is consistent with my January forecast. 

[George001]

The whole there is nothing to track thing isn’t true. There is a clipper threat for around the 4-5th, then a miller B threat around the 7th-8th, then possibly a miller A for the 11-12th time period. 

[Snowcrazed71]

8 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Going into December without a flake of snow?  It's super rare even here SNE, nothing silly at all

There are places in Connecticut that they have some snow. So, your knife twisting didn't work this time. But good try

[Henry's Weather]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully this is good analysis, Webb is somewhat of a prosperity preacher. If he is wrong, he can lean on the “likely”

[George001]

Just like that the clipper that was offshore for a couple runs is back on the 18z gfs. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Just like that the clipper that was offshore for a couple runs is back on the 18z gfs. 

What?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The whole there is nothing to track thing isn’t true. There is a clipper threat for around the 4-5th, then a miller B threat around the 7th-8th, then possibly a miller A for the 11-12th time period. 

Agree

Gfs likes a clipper Miller B for SNE

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What?

Hes right

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hes right

Ensembles are much different 

[George001]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What?

Anthony and I have been tracking the Dec 5 clipper threat for about a week now on another weather board. It has been on and off guidance but the signal is there.