WxWatcher007 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I would really love to witness some EPIC LES one day. It’s beyond spectacular when all cylinders are firing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: You and your dumb ass buzzer are confusing yourselves. Whether a 10-1 ratio is correct is irrelevant to the point. When a snow map shows "total snowfall at 10:1", the primary model parameter in question is QPF, not accumulated snow. The secondary model parameter, which is often calculated by 3rd party algorithm, is ptype. If a model correctly predicts QPF and ptype, a snowfall map that multiplies liquid equivalent by 10 and displays it as total snowfall at 10:1 would be absolutely correct. It just might not be an accurate prediction. Some 3rd party maps do this task pretty well. StormVista does not. Not necessarily, not at all. First off, 10:1 is an arbitrary number which is essentially just a made up average. There is no true gauge of what the actual snowfall ratio is. If you get 1'' of QPF and lets say the model accurately predicts that and accurately predicts all snow and then spits out 10'' of snow. If you're snowgrowth and lift is crappy through the duration of the 1''...you're not getting 10'' of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Not necessarily, not at all. First off, 10:1 is an arbitrary number which is essentially just a made up average. There is no true gauge of what the actual snowfall ratio is. If you get 1'' of QPF and lets say the model accurately predicts that and accurately predicts all snow and then spits out 10'' of snow. If you're snowgrowth and lift is crappy through the duration of the 1''...you're not getting 10'' of snow. Yes we all agree 10:1 is arbitrary. But if a chart specifically defines the output as representing a 10:1 liquid to snow ratio, the model just needs to get the ptype and QPF correct. The snow map is just a visual representation of data... like a graph or plot. It's not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 hour ago, eduggs said: 1. Most of the ens modeled snow comes in weenie range outside of NNE. 2. StormVista snow maps are as silly as the rest of them outside of F5 aka Narcan. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: Yes we all agree 10:1 is arbitrary. But if a chart specifically defines the output as representing a 10:1 liquid to snow ratio, the model just needs to get the ptype and QPF correct. The snow map is just a visual representation of data... like a graph or plot. It's not a forecast. All vendors go 10:1. The problem is what they consider snow vs other forms of precipitation including slop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 All vendors go 10:1. The problem is what they consider snow vs other forms of precipitation including slop.I am curious what mets use sometimes for their "in house" models... Some form of the NBM?Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Gonna be chilly next week. Now all we need is a bit of snow. I'm happy we aren't talking about 60's for highs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Gonna be chilly next week. Now all we need is a bit of snow. I'm happy we aren't talking about 60's for highs. Good luck with any snow at all next week in SNE. Enjoy sun and 28-38 for highs . At least ponds will have ice I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I would really love to witness some EPIC LES one day. Get in the car and go. Worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Good luck with any snow at all next week in SNE. Enjoy sun and 28-38 for highs . At least ponds will have ice I guess I'll get my skates sharpened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Good luck with any snow at all next week in SNE. Enjoy sun and 28-38 for highs . At least ponds will have ice I guess Do I sense an ounce of positivity from your lips? And there could be some lights snow Thursday. There may also be something to watch next weekend. Although I'm not sure on your highs of 28 to 38. At least in Southern New England, we're going to be in the '30s, but I didn't hear anything about twenties for highs ( Although that would get the ponds Frozen ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Do I sense an ounce of positivity from your lips? And there could be some lights snow Thursday. There may also be something to watch next weekend. Although I'm not sure on your highs of 28 to 38. At least in Southern New England, we're going to be in the '30s, but I didn't hear anything about twenties for highs ( Although that would get the ponds Frozen ) He’s mad because he lost the wintry month of November. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Do I sense an ounce of positivity from your lips? And there could be some lights snow Thursday. There may also be something to watch next weekend. Although I'm not sure on your highs of 28 to 38. At least in Southern New England, we're going to be in the '30s, but I didn't hear anything about twenties for highs ( Although that would get the ponds Frozen ) There’s literally nothing thru day 10 except chill and dry . What good does that do anyone ? The 10 day can kicking has begun . 1 2 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 There’s literally nothing thru day 10 except chill and dry . What good does that do anyone ? The 10 day can kicking had begun Looks below normal for temps in the 7 day. 30s for highs and teens/20s for overnight. I'll take it plus tomorrow's snSent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 We need a rubbing it in emoji. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: We need a rubbing it in emoji. Just read Freak picture posts for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Hopefully they "NNE" get absolutely croaked right through Napril 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Doesn't look very dry. Active pattern. Storm threats will show as we get closer in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s literally nothing thru day 10 except chill and dry . What good does that do anyone ? The 10 day can kicking has begun . Dumb post! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s literally nothing thru day 10 except chill and dry . What good does that do anyone ? The 10 day can kicking has begun . There’s been sleds already warming up in ct garages and little boners popping up in nyc squad cars …all over a tiny clipper potential. We have to start somewhere I suppose but the premature undie dropping could backfire in embarrassment if we end the 2015 pattern with a big rainer mid month. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There’s been sleds already warming up in ct garages and little boners popping up in nyc squad cars …all over a tiny clipper potential. We have to start somewhere I suppose but the premature undie dropping could backfire in embarrassment if we end the 2015 pattern with a big rainer mid month. Get some sack…and get on board! The threats will show up. You were all on board for no changes at this point…how’d that work out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 3 hours ago, weathafella said: We need a rubbing it in emoji. And rubbing it out… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Just now, cleetussnow said: And rubbing it out… We need that one for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There’s been sleds already warming up in ct garages and little boners popping up in nyc squad cars …all over a tiny clipper potential. We have to start somewhere I suppose but the premature undie dropping could backfire in embarrassment if we end the 2015 pattern with a big rainer mid month. We could easily go cold and dry to screaming cutter as the pattern relaxes. I think many in SNE may see their first "measurable snow" in the next 2 weeks but I'm not seeing any qpf rich snowfalls in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 We could easily go cold and dry to screaming cutter as the pattern relaxes. I think many in SNE may see their first "measurable snow" in the next 2 weeks but I'm not seeing any qpf rich snowfalls in that period.Yeah, but a bunch of smaller storms can equal one big storm and also serve to keep the pack freshSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We could easily go cold and dry to screaming cutter as the pattern relaxes. I think many in SNE may see their first "measurable snow" in the next 2 weeks but I'm not seeing any qpf rich snowfalls in that period. Lol…there’s a lot of things that can’t be seen at 384 hrs…you should know this. Go back 16 days from now…was any of this seen? That would be NO. Sure it could flop..no guarantees ever in weather. But if I’m betting, I’ll roll the dice with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 28 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Yeah, but a bunch of smaller storms can equal one big storm and also serve to keep the pack fresh Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk A series of 1-3" storms would be some welcome entertainment. A stretch that may only drop 6-8" total in 10 days but keeps a wintery vibe going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 A series of 1-3" storms would be some welcome entertainment. A stretch that may only drop 6-8" total in 10 days but keeps a wintery vibe going.Take a gander at the 0z GFSSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Holy Sugar Honey Iced Tea....Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Get some sack…and get on board! The threats will show up. You were all on board for no changes at this point…how’d that work out? Don’t have your panties too tight around your hips. Relax. Smoke some weed. Big miller A incoming D10. Lock it in and stop growling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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