CoastalWx Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: And trust me, lord knows I can be negative so if I see something crappy I’ll call it out with no hesitation. But I don’t see that currently after next week. Is it perfect, maybe not, but neither was the 6 week blitz in 2015 at first imo, but we managed lol. All you can do is look at the overall H5 look and let the pieces fall as they may. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 cold and dry is also kind of a cop out for longer time scales. of course it's going to be drier than average if it's cold. rather that than last year's 8" of rain in Dec 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL it’s so true though. It’s a cold index, but when it comes to storms it’s much more precarious. 2018-2019 was a textbook epOOOO Nooooo season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Is it perfect, maybe not, but neither was the 6 week blitz in 2015 at first imo, but we managed lol. All you can do is look at the overall H5 look and let the pieces fall as they may. basically, yes. all ENS are showing a 2014-15 pattern here after the first several days of the month. we'll see if it verifies, but we're already seeing good AK blocking and +PNA in the short range. better Pacific than we've seen in years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: After the 5th I think the ridge placement on the mean looks good. Granted GFS has it more girthy into the Plains, but after the 7-8 that changes too. That’s not a suppression look. Could the PV come south and squash? Maybe? But man I’ll take that look any day over the garbage we have had since 2011 aside from a week or two here or there. Do you mean 2021, instead of 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is it perfect, maybe not, but neither was the 6 week blitz in 2015 at first imo, but we managed lol. All you can do is look at the overall H5 look and let the pieces fall as they may. Correct me if I’m wrong Scott, but wouldn’t we rather see it not be exactly text book perfect at first(as we are), and then have it trend/mature into something even better…that way it becomes a more stable and longer lasting set up…somewhat like 2015 was. Analogous/akin, to buying beautifully ripe bananas that are absolutely perfect, only to get them home and two days later they’re going to shit. Get the less ripe good looking beauties, and they’ll ripen and last a lot longer for all to enjoy… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We need a seperate seasonal banter thread for all of the neurotic, fatalistic defense mechanisms born of the past several seasons of trauma that are sure to foster incessant bickering. THIS. This is what destructs/destroys this place. Make a thread for the guys who want to banter about their nuerosis, and keep the threads clear for informative discussion, like has been going on the last hour. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I agree. the reason why these patterns can appear cold and dry for a time before threats pop up is because of setups like this... this is the type of vort that can easily trend more amped and lead to miller B or strong clipper probably i have a different approach to this material than most but when first glancing over these 500 mb frames what occurs to me first and immediately is alway 'what needs to be fixed' ...really the instant they pass into eye like i see immediately two problems with that above ( other than the 210 hr header sarcasm ) the first is, there is no ridging over the western atlantic basin there. that trough amplitude could increase by factors of 2 or 3 X's it scaffolded power ... if that flow stays flat leaving the continent/coast that is doomed to nada. the other aspect i hate is the gradient between 45 n vs 30 n, nearing 80 w ... it's too much. i've referred to this in the past as the miami rule - it's just a means to identify negative interference between the large, vs smaller scales. i look at heights over mia prior to any diving wave out of western canada. if they are > 582 dm, and/or the base geostrophic wind ( the flags along the isopleths) are over 35 kts there is negative interference between the large vs smaller scales. another way to sense this interference is occurring, despite all that depth over michigan, the delta(pna) is not that impressive anywhere around the circumvallate of that trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Where did you get the extended version of that product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Luke, I understand that concern...if you had included that in the intial response, then I would have reacted differently. I have 3 little ones with a 4th imminent, so I'm not that engaged on here when its quiet. I have no clue what you have or haven't been clear about. It looked to me just like a butt-hurt, eastern Mass envy post. I agree that its not perfect, but we have a fighting chance, which is a welcomed change from the past two seasons and really the majority of the past decade. All good. I don’t have time to fully illuminate my thoughts either. I’m in a believe it until I see it mode while still understanding the first half potential. One can think both but on here if you aren’t APATT, you get ripped by the usual suspects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where did you get the extended version of that product? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: THIS. This is what destructs/destroys this place. Make a thread for the guys who want to banter about their buerosis , and keep the threads clear for informative discussion, like has been going on the last hour. Yea. Your posts are always scientifically backed. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Your posts are always scientifically backed. And you’ve been a neurotic mess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Just now, WinterWolf said: And you’ve been a neurotic mess. Really bizarre behavior constantly attacking anyone and everyone that doesn’t think like you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: cold and dry is also kind of a cop out for longer time scales. of course it's going to be drier than average if it's cold. rather that than last year's 8" of rain in Dec That isn't what people mean and you know this...."dry" in this instance means a dearth of major storm activity, not dry relative to a swampass July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Your posts are always scientifically backed. The irony is, You’ve been doing the most ripping. Talking about frozen crab grass cuz a poster said they like how deep the trough was. Don’t give me your crap Luke. You’re a stir the pot Nellie..period! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Happy holidays! 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Just now, WinterWolf said: The irony is, You’ve been doing the most ripping. Talking about frozen crab grass cuz a poster said they like how deep the trough was. Don’t give me your crap Luke. You’re a stir the pot Nellie..period! Non stop. Just keeps going…direct your anger elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Fight, fights, fighting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That isn't what people mean and you know this...."dry" in this instance means a dearth of major storm activity, not dry relative to a swampass July. yeah, that's true. I guess a clearer way to write what I meant is that you always sorta run the risk for dry periods when you have a cold pattern... you just increase the risk of cashing in when you do get moisture. gotta take the dryness to get the snow most of the time 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Fight, fights, fighting We deperately need snow, snows, snowing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, that's true. I guess a clearer way to write what I meant is that you always sorta run the risk for dry periods when you have a cold pattern... you just increase the risk of cashing in when you do get moisture. gotta take the dryness to get the snow most of the time Even when you get buried in really cold patterns....its still relatively "dry", so to speak....there was very low LE relative to the amount of snow in the huge pack of Feb 2015. Jan 1996 was the same way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Non stop. Just keeps going…direct your anger elsewhere. You the one who’s been angry…and passive aggressive since the decent pattern started showing up. Nothing wrong with saying what you don’t like about something. But being a jerk to folks saying what they do like, ain’t cool either. Hey, maybe you’re correct, and nothing happens. But don’t be busting peoples balls cuz they like what they see. Cuz that’s what you’ve been doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The irony is, You’ve been doing the most ripping. Talking about frozen crab grass cuz a poster said they like how deep the trough was. Don’t give me your crap Luke. You’re a stir the pot Nellie..period! Those aren’t attacks man. Simply stating what the models look like lol. You just can’t handle the truth…and you lash out, as always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Happy holidays! i saw this meme the other day that was eye rollingly funny... it was something like only in amerca do people trample over one another is a psychopathic rage of material hollowness a day after celebrating, in peace, a holiday to be Thankful for what they have. ...although, some of the households in here ... you know, you wonder if they are a delicious pressure cooker socio-dynamic functionality state, where time outs spent with social media serve as a release valve... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: You the one who’s been angry…and passive aggressive since the decent pattern started showing up. Nothing wrong with saying what you don’t like about something. But being a jerk to folks saying what they do like, ain’t cool either. Hey, maybe you’re correct, and nothing happens. But don’t be busting peoples balls cuz they like what they see. Cuz that’s what you’ve been doing. Lordamercy…it’s not that serious. Smoke some weed bruh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Will be nice to get a real powder fest of a storm that blows around. So done with the slop fests of the last several seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 Lost in the predator’s rage is Ray saying he has a 4th kid coming. The dude will field a baseball team at this rate…congrats! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26 Share Posted November 26 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lost in the predator’s rage is Ray saying he has a 4th kid coming. The dude will field a baseball team at this rate…congrats! Thanks, buddy. Happy Holidays, for real. haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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