December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[FXWX]

With lots ensemble support for a colder than normal start to December, there are 2 questions; 1 how stable will it be and will consistent storm activity materialize during the cold period?

The medium to long range ensemble data has been growing more adamant about the early month pattern being pretty stable and possibly have legs.  Whether or not it stays that way or folds heading into the 2nd week heading toward mid-month is far from certain.  

Storm wise, lots of uncertainty but I'll take my chances compared to the last few Decembers.

[dryslot]

[FXWX]

Hopefully it doesn't go the 1989 route!

[weatherwiz]

I know we don't need southern stream energy to get storms but I would like to see signals of a bit more active southern stream. It is nice seeing a PV lobe (or multiple pieces) hanging around in southeast Canada so the one thing to watch for that is any shortwaves which may swing through our region. If you just look at SLP/QPF maps for storms you can often miss these because sometimes a storm won't "pop up" until like 2-3 days out while the signal where there at H5 for 4-5 days. But we keep that PV energy around and get a southern stream vort to ride the coast...

[ORH_wxman]

@CoastalWx

Weeklies are starting to cave for 3rd week of December. Previously showing a kind of torchy pattern but it’s keeping that ridge in the west now which delays the warmup. 
 

Don’t worry, I’m sure it will flip just in time for a grinch cutter. But interesting to see nonetheless given what we see at the end of the ensembles recently. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

@CoastalWx

Weeklies are starting to cave for 3rd week of December. Previously showing a kind of torchy pattern but it’s keeping that ridge in the west now which delays the warmup. 
 

Don’t worry, I’m sure it will flip just in time for a grinch cutter. But interesting to see nonetheless given what we see at the end of the ensembles recently. 

LOL. Yeah that sounds right. 
 

I’m hopeful with the ensemble look. That end of the EPS looks pretty darn strong out west with the ridging. Doesn’t look to break down anytime soon verbatim. Obvious that caveats apply, but that’s the first time I’ve felt somewhat optimistic in a long time. 
 

When you brought up that point about having a -NAO with a workable Pacific, but a terrible WPO….I literally had chills. I remember specifically looking at the models and I remember bringing up the point about I could see  that Bering Sea trough fuck up and break down the temporary decent Pacific. Sure enough that happened. Ugh. I want to vomit now. 

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL. Yeah that sounds right. 
 

I’m hopeful with the ensemble look. That end of the EPS looks pretty darn strong out west with the ridging. Doesn’t look to break down anytime soon verbatim. Obvious that caveats apply, but that’s the first time I’ve felt somewhat optimistic in a long time. 
 

When you brought up that point about having a -NAO with a workable Pacific, but a terrible WPO….I literally had chills. I remember specifically looking at the models and I remember bringing up the point about I could see  that Bering Sea trough fuck up and break down the temporary decent Pacific. Sure enough that happened. Ugh. I want to vomit now. 

That WPO has been such a persistent turd and it’s amazing how positive the EPO was last winter too despite it often being progged negative or neutral. It wasn’t as positive as the WPO but that WPO always ended up bullying it so it went positive too…and solidly. 
 

Let’s hope this year is different. 

[cleetussnow]

The effects of the last 2 winters on our psyche….jeez.  Everyone has an eye twitch and a thousand yard stare.  Yes it can be cold in December.  

[Jebman]

Yeah methinks the New England Region shall do well this winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That WPO has been such a persistent turd and it’s amazing how positive the EPO was last winter too despite it often being progged negative or neutral. It wasn’t as positive as the WPO but that WPO always ended up bullying it so it went positive too…and solidly. 
 

Let’s hope this year is different. 

I have zero doubt it will be different this year. If you read my work from last week, the WPO signal was pretty glaring..right up there with 2013.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is the first year I have addressed the WPO, which is in response to having it derail my outlook last year.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

@CoastalWx

Weeklies are starting to cave for 3rd week of December. Previously showing a kind of torchy pattern but it’s keeping that ridge in the west now which delays the warmup. 
 

Don’t worry, I’m sure it will flip just in time for a grinch cutter. But interesting to see nonetheless given what we see at the end of the ensembles recently. 

what i find interesting about the outer <-- correction tendencies we've been observing ( i mentioned last week the wpo's been guilty of that as well fwiw - ) is that it seems the mjo is ( thankfully ) demonstrating early in the year ( thus necessarily reeducating people ) that it's not a pattern forcing mechanism, but is a reenforcer.  the surrounding hemisphere has to be mechanically in sync 

it appears there are other motivating factors that are favoring a front loaded winter, and that they are suppresing/destructively interfering with the mjo in the right side of the rmm/marine continent.      

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what i find interesting about the outer <-- correction tendencies we've been observing ( i mentioned last week the wpo's been guilty of that as well fwiw - ) is that it seems the mjo is ( thankfully ) demonstrating early in the year ( thus necessarily reeducating people ) that is is not a pattern forcing mechanism, but is a reenforcer.  the surrounding hemisphere has to be mechanically in sync 

it appears there are other motivating factors that are favoring a front loaded winter, and that they are suppresing/destructively interfering with the mjo in the right side of the rmm/marine continent.      

Yeah the MJO would suggest nothing like we’re seeing on model guidance. 
 

There’s a pretty big PNA ridge spike shown at around D11-12 that occurs so I’m wondering if that 12/5 period give or take a day is something to watch for a larger scale system. Much more pronounced on EPS than GEFS but still there on the latter. 

[MJO812]

Euro and EPS are very cold moving forward.

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro and EPS are very cold moving forward.

 

 

The dry cracked ground should be nice. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The dry cracked ground should be nice. 

Hopefully no suppression 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and EPS are very cold moving forward.

 

 

Steined 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Steined 

Worried

[WalpoleJoe]

After these last 2 years, I will be happy to just have cold weather

[bwt3650]

The dry cracked ground should be nice. 

Ehh..after the run of AN December’s, would it be terrible if we just put a couple inches down and it lasted a few weeks while we wait for something to materialize? This is what’s been missing for a while and what everyone remembers as yore. I’ll roll the dice with a consistent cold.


.

[weatherwiz]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the MJO would suggest nothing like we’re seeing on model guidance. 
 

There’s a pretty big PNA ridge spike shown at around D11-12 that occurs so I’m wondering if that 12/5 period give or take a day is something to watch for a larger scale system. Much more pronounced on EPS than GEFS but still there on the latter. 

There seems to be a degree of spread within the strength of the MJO but perhaps the MJO strength will be too weak to have much of an impact or influence on the overall pattern, especially if that northern PAC domain verifies as is. 

[SnowGoose69]

We probably want the MJO to remain fairly weak this winter as the SST anomalies more or less argue it should spend most of the time in 3-4-5

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the MJO would suggest nothing like we’re seeing on model guidance. 
 

There’s a pretty big PNA ridge spike shown at around D11-12 that occurs so I’m wondering if that 12/5 period give or take a day is something to watch for a larger scale system. Much more pronounced on EPS than GEFS but still there on the latter. 

it is.  it actually fits the canonical load -release -load timing that more typically separates events in the atmosphere.  sometimes the 2 in 72 hour thing can happen - 1997 - and so forth but that's rarer.   i feel the 29th is a real event ...whether it develops in time for us or not, doesn't matter.  meteorologically it counts as the succession. 

anyway, the dec  5-7 is legit 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I like 5th on myself. That is not a suppression look.

[George001]

I’m not a fan of the 29th threat outside NNE/elevations, but I am optimistic about this upcoming pattern and believe we will see some snow in December this year. We are seeing 2 things on the long range, persistent ridging over Alaska and a stronger than normal polar vortex. This is a completely different pattern than what we have seen the past 2 winters. We have been seeing a lot of -NAO/+EPO/-PNA. It looks like in December we are headed towards a -EPO/+PNA/+NAO pattern instead.

[George001]

The NAO is overrated. Yes storms tend to be more progressive in +NAO regimes, but what good is it if there is troughing out west and you are blocking in mild pacific air? You don’t need 36 hours of snow to get buried, a fast moving 12 hour storm in a cold regime can and has resulted in big snows. When I think of big east coast winter storms the first thing I think of is a Montana ridge, not Greenland blocking. Ultimately the pacific drives the bus.

[DavisStraight]

36 minutes ago, George001 said:

The NAO is overrated. Yes storms tend to be more progressive in +NAO regimes, but what good is it if there is troughing out west and you are blocking in mild pacific air? You don’t need 36 hours of snow to get buried, a fast moving 12 hour storm in a cold regime can and has resulted in big snows. When I think of big east coast winter storms the first thing I think of is a Montana ridge, not Greenland blocking. Ultimately the pacific drives the bus.

Those quick hit 20 inchers were great, go to bed at 11 wake up to 20 inches, those storms were great but nothing wrong with a stalled low and it snows for 36 hours either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it is.  it actually fits the canonical load -release -load timing that more typically separates events in the atmosphere.  sometimes the 2 in 72 hour thing can happen - 1997 - and so forth but that's rarer.   i feel the 29th is a real event ...whether it develops in time for us or not, doesn't matter.  meteorologically it counts as the succession. 

anyway, the dec  5-7 is legit 

1996.

1997 was the 8"/hr bomb in Ayer on the eve of Xmas eve.

[wxeyeNH]

and the winner is?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

and the winner is?

Steined