December Medium/ Long Range

[WEATHER53]

Arctic outbreak is music to my ears.  This is not roll over and  roll out cold.  Its  down and upon us for like 4 days of -15 departures. Meanwhile Mongolia getting ready to distribute more . We have not had back to back below average months for 18 months so maybe this is the beginning of that 

 

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

I'm still watching Sat night/Sunday morning as the GFS has a wave tracking to our south and suggests precip makes it over the mtns

I see it too, its been on the models for a while. And more than one clipper too. TBD whether the precip makes it over the mountains and gives us some light snow. 

[yoda]

It's the 12z CMC at the end of its run, but I'd like to think it was getting ready for something good after 240 looking at SLP/HP placement and h5... I think lol

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

It's the 12z CMC at the end of its run, but I'd like to think it was getting ready for something good after 240 looking at SLP/HP placement and h5... I think lol

Yeah it looked good. Gfs is a parade of northern stream clippers that all manage to barely screw us lol. Either way, all showing potential by late next week and beyond.

[stormtracker]

48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah it looked good. Gfs is a parade of northern stream clippers that all manage to barely screw us lol. Either way, all showing potential by late next week and beyond.

Just make it before the 12th bro.     Nothing between the 12th and 17th.   I'll be sick if it's a smokejob will I'm on a beach.  My friends will think I'm sick, but screw those guys.

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just make it before the 12th bro.     Nothing between the 12th and 17th.   I'll be sick if it's a smokejob will I'm on a beach.  My friends will think I'm sick, but screw those guys.

I sense a 12 incher coming between the 12th and 15th. 

[WxUSAF]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just make it before the 12th bro.     Nothing between the 12th and 17th.   I'll be sick if it's a smokejob will I'm on a beach.  My friends will think I'm sick, but screw those guys.

I mean, when was the last warning level snowfall in DC in December? 2009?? 
 

There are reasons to be encouraged obviously. We need anomalously cold air in the first half of December to even have a chance. But this could be the winteriest December in years for our area and we could still end up with 2-4” of snow total…

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, when was the last warning level snowfall in DC in December? 2009?? 
 

There are reasons to be encouraged obviously. We need anomalously cold air in the first half of December to even have a chance. But this could be the winteriest December in years for our area and we could still end up with 2-4” of snow total…

Just seeing accumulating snow in December would be a win for me 

[Ji]

I mean, when was the last warning level snowfall in DC in December? 2009?? 
 
There are reasons to be encouraged obviously. We need anomalously cold air in the first half of December to even have a chance. But this could be the winteriest December in years for our area and we could still end up with 2-4” of snow total…

Dec 2013

[Eskimo Joe]

Oh yea baby

 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Oh yea baby

 

Yeah that looks nice. GEFS pretty similar, just less intense in the height anomalies. Both show us BN for the duration and precip bumps up starting late next week. 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah that looks nice. GEFS pretty similar, just less intense in the height anomalies. Both show us BN for the duration and precip bumps up starting late next week. 

12z EPS shows the same thing. Less intense than GEPS, but we can work with that. 

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, ravensrule said:

I sense a 12 incher coming between the 12th and 15th. 

That's what I tell my wife.......  if she ever learns how to read  a measuring tape ,my manhood will be gone lmaooo 

[winter_warlock]

26 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

12z EPS shows the same thing. Less intense than GEPS, but we can work with that. 

I'll take that anyday!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18z GEFS really shifted away from last nights modeling of -EPO/+PNA in the medium-long range. Now it shows a Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian High pressure. Although the pattern may be getting wetter after Day 10, it may just be rain. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS really shifted away from last nights modeling of -EPO/+PNA in the medium-long range. Now it shows a Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian High pressure. Although the pattern may be getting wetter after Day 10, it may just be rain. 

Sounds about right 

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS really shifted away from last nights modeling of -EPO/+PNA in the medium-long range. Now it shows a Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian High pressure. Although the pattern may be getting wetter after Day 10, it may just be rain. 

It's 18z but, shows that possibility on the Table now. Not surprised really. That solution is clearly viable. Let's see how the other's and it do the next couple days before presuming we're headed that way though. 

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Arctic outbreak is music to my ears.  This is not roll over and  roll out cold.  Its  down and upon us for like 4 days of -15 departures. Meanwhile Mongolia getting ready to distribute more . We have not had back to back below average months for 18 months so maybe this is the beginning of that 

 

Back in earlier forecasting years that was one of the Teleconnections we used. Worked quite well. 

[Solution Man]

42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS really shifted away from last nights modeling of -EPO/+PNA in the medium-long range. Now it shows a Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian High pressure. Although the pattern may be getting wetter after Day 10, it may just be rain. 

[Terpeast]

47 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

It's 18z but, shows that possibility on the Table now. Not surprised really. That solution is clearly viable. Let's see how the other's and it do the next couple days before presuming we're headed that way though. 

This coincides with the MJO going into 5 at decent amplitude. 

We may moderate back to NN or somewhat AN for a period of time around the 12th or so, but things may get interesting again once we get to 7/8 (maybe late dec or early jan) with a colder airmass the second time around. 

Still watching the clippers and the 12/8-10 window. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS really shifted away from last nights modeling of -EPO/+PNA in the medium-long range. Now it shows a Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian High pressure. Although the pattern may be getting wetter after Day 10, it may just be rain. 

First ensemble support for Pacific collapse: Mark 2024-11-27 20:30 EST.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 3 main global ensembles at 12z still maintain a favorable look in the day 10 to 15 period.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z ensembles each end with below normal temps at the 360 hr. time stamp.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GEFS has brief transient ridging in the east on day 12/13, but then quickly evolves back into a more favorable look by day 15. Temperatures at day 15 are below normal as well.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 18z GEFS has brief transient ridging in the east on day 12/13, but then quickly evolves back into a more favorable look by day 15. Temperatures at day 15 are below normal as well.

It's not going to be below normal with that kind of H5. NAO is positive, and it's close in the Pacific to a -PNA. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS really shifted away from last nights modeling of -EPO/+PNA in the medium-long range. Now it shows a Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian High pressure. Although the pattern may be getting wetter after Day 10, it may just be rain. 

Boy if we get a rug pull . . .

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Back in earlier forecasting years that was one of the Teleconnections we used. Worked quite well. 

Thanks for the comment

[Terpeast]

40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Boy if we get a rug pull . . .

That would be the second time in this calendar year

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

This coincides with the MJO going into 5 at decent amplitude. 

We may moderate back to NN or somewhat AN for a period of time around the 12th or so, but things may get interesting again once we get to 7/8 (maybe late dec or early jan) with a colder airmass the second time around. 

Still watching the clippers and the 12/8-10 window. 

Yeah, makes sense. That's probably what it's reacting to.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Boy if we get a rug pull . . .

Listen, this year there can only be good surprises. Any "rug pull" wouldn't be anything we haven't seen before. Now may be the perfect time to step back and let it play out...(Or at least, that's what I TRY to do, though I keep breaking my rule and turning off my site blocker app and coming in here sometimes).