December Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Here's an excerpt from Archives of the '49 One's :

   The Blizzard of 1949 is considered one of the worst on record for the northern Plains. The first storm began January 2 and continued through January 5, with heavy snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. Subsequent storms through mid-February produced enormous snow drifts that paralyzed much of the region.

The stuff snow weenie dreams are made of.

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Thoughts? 

 

If blocking manifests the 2nd half of December it could help mitigate the effects of Trough westward retrogression being shown late Month. The SST'S just south of Newfoundland and around Nova Scotia is supportive of LP in that area. That could help pull the Urals HP on Southwestward and pop a legit -NAO. Just my rusty, relic has been opinion.

 

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Here's an excerpt from Archives of the '49 One's :

   The Blizzard of 1949 is considered one of the worst on record for the northern Plains. The first storm began January 2 and continued through January 5, with heavy snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. Subsequent storms through mid-February produced enormous snow drifts that paralyzed much of the region.

We just don’t get them like that anymore 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Obviously we could go through the whole cold pattern snowless, but I’d bet against getting totally skunked. But we could certainly  top out at a dusting or two. Saw a plot yesterday of EPS analogs for its D10-15 forecast (this was yesterday’s 0z run). Couple were essentially snowless at BWI with just a T or two. Several had a light event or two nearby in time (1-3” type deal). Best was 12/5/2002…the OG December 5th storm. 

Here's the event archive for those of you with faded memories like me: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/05-Dec-02.html

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Solution Man said:

We just don’t get them like that anymore 

Yeah, unfortunately not. Man how I miss the good ole days !

[RDM]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Here's an excerpt from Archives of the '49 One's :

   The Blizzard of 1949 is considered one of the worst on record for the northern Plains. The first storm began January 2 and continued through January 5, with heavy snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. Subsequent storms through mid-February produced enormous snow drifts that paralyzed much of the region.

   My father grew up just outside of Dubuque, Iowa and often talked about that storm.  His family was running out of coal and his dad took their two Belgian draft horse to get coal with a large wood sled.  Said his dad almost didn't make it home because the horses were exhausted and stopped about a half mile from the house.  He took them across the fields because most of the snow blew off in the wind.  He managed to get the horses back to the barn or the horses would have froze to death in the cold and wind. 

  They lived on High Ridge Road in Joe Davies Co. Illinois.  The "High Ridge" name for the road was because it was the highest road around, with nothing to block the wind.  Said it howled for days and was the only storm he ever encountered that was on par with the mid-west blizzard of 78, which we lived through in Ohio.  That is the one I'll never forget because of the wind.  We had drifts 20+ feet high too.  Many roads were closed for weeks until the snowblowers from Dayton Airport and Wright Patterson AFB came out to dig through the drifts.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, RDM said:

   My father grew up just outside of Dubuque, Iowa and often talked about that storm.  His family was running out of coal and his dad took their two Belgian draft horse to get coal with a large wood sled.  Said his dad almost didn't make it home because the horses were exhausted and stopped about a half mile from the house.  He took them across the fields because most of the snow blew off in the wind.  He managed to get the horses back to the barn or the horses would have froze to death in the cold and wind. 

  They lived on High Ridge Road in Joe Davies Co. Illinois.  The "High Ridge" name for the road was because it was the highest road around, with nothing to block the wind.  Said it howled for days and was the only storm he ever encountered that was on par with the mid-west blizzard of 78, which we lived through in Ohio.  That is the one I'll never forget because of the wind.  We had drifts 20+ feet high too.  Many roads were closed for weeks until the snowblowers from Dayton Airport and Wright Patterson AFB came out to dig through the drifts.  

Good memories. My Uncle lived in NW Ohio during '78 Blizzard and said drifts were up to their 2 Story Windows. There's several great Articles with Pics , Videos and Interviews regarding it. 

[RDM]

14 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Good memories. My Uncle lived in NW Ohio during '78 Blizzard and said drifts were up to their 2 Story Windows. There's several great Articles with Pics , Videos and Interviews regarding it. 

Indeed.  There's a book about the '78 blizzard too.  Someone here brought it to my attention several years ago so I bought a copy.  Brought back lots of memories.  My hometown about 12 miles N of Dayton (where Ohio gets really flat) was essentially isolated for several days until the plows and blowers could get through the drifts on a couple of routes into/out of town.  It was getting ugly when the one grocery store in town sold out of everything edible. 

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Thoughts? 

 

 Looking like it's gonna be a December to remember!!!

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, unfortunately not. Man how I miss the good ole days !

Amen brother!!!

[winter_warlock]

I will say one thing  about alot of you in here... ive been a member  of AmericanWx  for 14 years  and I gotta say ive actually  learned alot from alot of you in here.  Meteorology  has been a hobby of mine for   many years ( going back to when I was a kid  during the blizzard of 79.. remember that one?)   And   many of u in here have been in here like I have since the beginning   back in 2010...  and I've learned alot in here..you  are a lil smarter then me with this  field of study !  So. Thanks!! .  It's a credit to u all... but dont let it go to ur heads!! 

[wxdude64]

6 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Im not picky i just want a blizzard to hammer us like this one did in the dakotas !!!!

 

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

That was from the Plains Blizzard of 1949 I think. What a Storm it must have been.

There were 20 ft Drifts in part's of my area during the 93 Blizzard and the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 but, generally in area's above 2500 feet. 

Yep, 74th anniversary yesterday and today!

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

I will say one thing  about alot of you in here... ive been a member  of AmericanWx  for 14 years  and I gotta say ive actually  learned alot from alot of you in here.  Meteorology  has been a hobby of mine for   many years ( going back to when I was a kid  during the blizzard of 79.. remember that one?)   And   many of u in here have been in here like I have since the beginning   back in 2010...  and I've learned alot in here..you  are a lil smarter then me with this  field of study !  So. Thanks!! .  It's a credit to u all... but dont let it go to ur heads!! 

I remember that one. My dad was living at Watergate at Landmark in Alexandria and I got stuck there during that storm. It was so fun jebwalking in it! I was only 14 and damn good at jebwalking back in those days! DC got totally JanuBuried by that one lol.

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

The stuff snow weenie snowgasms are made of.

Fixed.

[yoda]

00z GFS has a storm on the 7th... big snowstorm for i81 corridor, W MD into C MD into PA.  Pouring cold rain for some of us, but it's very close to a huge hit for all if its just a tad further south.  It's also slow moving and spread out over a few days

00z CMC has a nice 1-3" for almost all on the 4th

[yoda]

00z CMC

[yoda]

00z GFS (it's a 72 hour map because it's spread out over a few days)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

One thing to note is that the NAO will be going positive in about 7 days. All the cold is Pacific-driven. +NAO's in its pure form have as much of a +300% precip difference than -NAO's.. so models may not dry up getting closer if we keep this -epo/+nao pattern. +PNA's are dry though. -epo/+pna/+nao patterns produce 2-6" events, but Balt/DC only average 2-3" in Dec so keep that in mind.