December Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

What we know is that we are going to have the coldest winter solstice this Sunday in a long time....WB 18Z NAM.

[frd]

 

Great post by Tomer on the pattern evolution going forward. 

I like it !   mentions the word snow ....   

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1870246071852572678

[WxUSAF]

8 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Is the low spread on Monday morning still 0-30 on the models?

Narrowed a bit. GGEM still has low 0s widespread. Euro is mid 10s. GFS has some down bit to upper 10s-mid 20s.

[WxUSAF]

 

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

“Who are you and what have you done to psuhoffman?”

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

“Who are you and what have you done to psuhoffman?”

lol 

Im still cautious. Long way to go before we’re measuring anything. But most of what I do is just math. Playing probabilities.  And the probabilities say -pdo cold enso years are likely to be garbage. But flukes happen. 1996 happened. 2014 happened. They aren’t the most likely outcome and you’ll lose betting on that outcome most often but they do happen. More likely than those level flukes one off storm flukes happen like Jan 2000 and Feb 2006.  
 

What I’m seeing opens the door to the possibility this is an anomaly year. That’s all. I’ll take my chances considering how things could look right now. Several years recently I was working on my “winters over” draft about now!  

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Gee, top analog 1985-01-21.  Merely the day that RDU set it's all-time record low of an incredible -9 F.  The height of the January 1985 polar outbreak.

Several of those analogs had historic cold snaps in the Mid-Atlantic.  January 1970, 1977, 1981 (along with 1985.)

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But flukes happen. 1996 happened. 2014 happened. They aren’t the most likely outcome and you’ll lose betting on that outcome most often but they do happen. More likely than those level flukes one off storm flukes happen like Jan 2000 and Feb 2006.  

95-96 was a +PDO, but SSTs are more a reflection of atmospheric conditions, so changing times aren't gauged well by the PDO. This could be one of those anomalous years. I'm actually surprised that the CPC is so cold in their 3-4 week forecast. They have the cold centered in the Tenn valley, which your composite for most snowy Winters showed. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

Go back and look at my post from this morning for that same period, focusing on the jet stream and h5. One astute poster asked if I was predicting a redux of the 96 storm.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

can’t wait for people to say this is cold and dry. this is perfect for amplification into confluence along with a decaying block and an Arctic air mass feeding in 

IF this is legit, this is the kind of pattern that presents high end potential from DC-BOS. just need to give it another week to see if the block is real… i think the Pacific is going to end up favorable 

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I have said it a lot here…
But I am rooting for a Jan 6-8, 1996 redux.
And it just might happen.

NO FEBRUARY 2024 BUST AHHHHH.

Everyone on this board has been rooting for a Jan 6-8 1996 redux since Jan 9th 1996. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can’t wait for people to say this is cold and dry. this is perfect for amplification into confluence along with a decaying block and an Arctic air mass feeding in 

IF this is legit, this is the kind of pattern that presents high end potential from DC-BOS. just need to give it another week to see if the block is real… i think the Pacific is going to end up favorable 

+PNA and -NAO are dry, but -EPO has a neutral precip correlation plus the most extreme negative temps.. so you could say that the current model look is actually a little better than that time in 95-96, although randomness does spike some storms in the H5 drier patterns. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Mikeymac5306 said:

Everyone on this board has been rooting for a Jan 6-8 1996 redux since Jan 9th 1996. 

A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. 

Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. 

Imagine that. 

[cbmclean]

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Several years recently I was working on my “winters over” draft about now!  

Be sure to take notes for the inevitable "what went wrong analysis" you have to write around 12/26 when the ensembles suddenly show a ridge from gulf to pole.

[bncho]

LOL
We’re going to get a the blizzard redux, and then twenty years later I’m going to be writing a book called “The Beginning of the End of Winters.”

[bncho]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Imagine that. 

subtle foreshadowing

[wxdude64]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. 

Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. 

Imagine that. 

So, you're talking a 30% increase possible? (as he eyes his 32 inch total from Jan 6-8 1996)

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

So, you're talking a 30% increase possible? (as he eyes his 32 inch total from Jan 6-8 1996)

I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. 

Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. 

Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows

Spoof totals to excite the snow weenies!
IAD: 32.8”
DCA: 25.9”
BWI: 29.1”
 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Spoof totals to excite the snow weenies!
IAD: 32.8”
DCA: 25.9”
BWI: 29.1”
 

2009-10 and 2016 is also proof that this is already happening (inflated snow storm totals in a warming climate). Not just here, but also in other places. 

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

2009 and 2016 is also proof that this is already happening (inflated snow storm totals in a warming climate). Not just here, but also in other places. 

Being serious though, you’re 100% right. Areas that are still more than cold enough for snow have seen increases in average snow totals.

Now we just need a blizzard to hit. 2016-2009=7. 2009-2003=6. 2016+7=2023. (7+6)/2=6.5. 2016+6.5=2022.5. We’re due for a blizzard, according to the math.
Let’s get 3ft of snow.

[Heisy]

18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm

Mother of god.jpg






.

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm

Mother of god.jpg






.

you know, maybe i can manifest the blizzard redux into existence if i just remind everyone about it everyday.

[Eskimo Joe]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. 

Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows

The winter of 2015-2016 is a perfect example of this. It was a shutout until that one event saved winter.

[CAPE]

I don't necessarily think our window of opportunity is limited to early- mid Jan. Looking way out there towards the end of Jan/into early Feb on the latest Euro weeklies(fwiw), a period where many have suggested the pattern will become hostile/shit the blinds- it probably does trend more towards a typical Nina, but this is far from a shutout pattern should it materialize. It in fact looks much like h5 leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm. If that EPO ridge keeps on keeping on, we should continue to see opportunities for a wave to track underneath along the thermal boundary at times, with a flatter SER.

 

[winter_warlock]

With the very cold temps coming.  Over the weekend I had to post this!!

 

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't necessarily think our window of opportunity is limited to early- mid Jan. Looking way out there towards the end of Jan/into early Feb on the latest Euro weeklies(fwiw), a period where many have suggested the pattern will become hostile/shit the blinds- it probably does trend more towards a typical Nina, but this is far from a shutout pattern should it materialize. It in fact looks much like h5 leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm. If that EPO ridge keeps on keeping on, we should continue to see opportunities for a wave to track underneath along the thermal boundary at times, with a flatter SER.

 

Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. 

[MillvilleWx]

24 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm

Mother of god.jpg






.

Noticed this too when assessing guidance as the 00z comes in. Can't say I hate it. The 6hr precip panels were actually very nice to look at for the period of interest after 1/1. I'm keeping the faith as we turn the calendar forward. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. 

Agree 100%

[Dendrimer77]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. 

I prefer the gradient to be from approximately Shot Pump down to the hell pits of Charlotte, being that I live in Charlottesville. Here's to hoping we can all score a solid winter storm (or three) worthy of a Jeb walk and a few brews along the way!