December Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

You seem to want to pick a fight which would be a mistake 

i know what I specifically observe while you share what you feel your model dependency tells you to . 
it doesn’t work to tell someone they “see it wrong”!

You monitor air pressure in Mongolia? Cool.

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The party that is confused is you

You are Not the spokesman Nor the self appointed corrector of others. The simple lact of  observation is that for many years that region in the winters has had considerably less strong, very cold high pressure in the winter.

i hope this  cures your confusion and your need to “correct” others observations.  

You're right. It is not as cold there in recent years. Siberian HP is generally weaker. Do you know why?

[WEATHER53]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You're right. It is not as cold there in recent years. Siberian HP is generally weaker. Do you know why?

The “why” is far less important than the reality of observing that so far high pressure is more  prevalent  You are not the board teacher posing questions to your students 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The “why” is far less important than the reality of observing that so far high pressure is more  prevalent  You are not the board teacher posing questions to your students 

The why is definitely important, but this isn't the thread.

I am a teacher actually, so it is a habit I guess. This is a place for weather/climate related discussion. We can all learn from each other.  

Anyway, back to my model dependency.

 

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

The party that is confused is you

You are Not the spokesman Nor the self appointed corrector of others. The simple lact of  observation is that for many years that region in the winters has had considerably less strong, very cold high pressure in the winter.

i hope this  cures your confusion and your need to “correct” others observations.  

Time to take a break and go touch grass Howard.  Maybe take a drive out to Garrett County to see some snow.

[cbmclean]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The why is definitely important, but this isn't the thread.

I am a teacher actually, so it is a habit I guess. This is a place for weather/climate related discussion. We can all learn from each other.  

Anyway, back to my model dependency.

 

I think the original question is one of potential interest?  Perhaps there is a correlation between Siberian HP and Eastern Conus weather?  Remember that ABNA index that Webb pulled out of the depths the other day.

[T. August]

I know it’s long range, but I kind of like what the GFS is showing. Reinforcing cold shots (nothing too oppressive) with precip approaching from the southwest. Verbatim, a few CAD events on the 12z run.

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I think the original question is one of potential interest?  Perhaps there is a correlation between Siberian HP and Eastern Conus weather?  Remember that ABNA index that Webb pulled out of the depths the other day.

The correlation is via the Siberian HP influence on the SPV and the lower level reflection of that, which is the AO. I believe the generally accepted idea is a stronger Siberian HP tends to weaken the SPV and that is associated with a -AO, which allows colder air to move further southward into the midlatitudes.

[WxUSAF]

GEPS was onboard with this before, but 12z is the first I’ve seen GEFS move strongly toward showing the western ridge move off the west coast, allowing the eastern trough axis to shift westward as well. And what happens almost immediately? The gulf opens up and precip starts flowing toward us. This is all after next weekend (7th and after), but I like to see it. Thanksgiving through the 7th or so looks northern stream dominant. After that, small shifts could open us up to more southern stream involvement.

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEPS was onboard with this before, but 12z is the first I’ve seen GEFS move strongly toward showing the western ridge move off the west coast, allowing the eastern trough axis to shift westward as well. And what happens almost immediately? The gulf opens up and precip starts flowing toward us. This is all after next weekend (7th and after), but I like to see it. Thanksgiving through the 7th or so looks northern stream dominant. After that, small shifts could open us up to more southern stream involvement.

But then does the SER try to build? (at work so stuck working instead of looking at models  )

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

But then does the SER try to build? (at work so stuck working instead of looking at models  )

Not within the next 16 days at least according to the GEPS and GEFS. A little SER or WAR can be ok to keep the storm track close when we also have cold air established. But in this case, having the whole pattern move a bit west lets the Gulf open up potentially. 

[poolz1]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEPS was onboard with this before, but 12z is the first I’ve seen GEFS move strongly toward showing the western ridge move off the west coast, allowing the eastern trough axis to shift westward as well. And what happens almost immediately? The gulf opens up and precip starts flowing toward us. This is all after next weekend (7th and after), but I like to see it. Thanksgiving through the 7th or so looks northern stream dominant. After that, small shifts could open us up to more southern stream involvement.

I did notice some agreement between the GEFS and EPS on southern stream energy coming out of the SW late in their runs. A small detail late in the run that probably isn't worth mentioning but hoping the idea gains some traction in the coming days.  Lets get the real life version of an epic overrunning event. 

[Ji]

the EPS and GEFS both have increasing precip periods after next weekend. Especially the GEFS

[AlexD1990]

Definitely interesting to be seeing a colder pattern setting up, with the possibility of it turning stormier after the 1st; especially when you consider a lot of long range stuff was leaning towards a lousy winter.

[WEATHER53]

One historical precedent I’ll be looking at is how long does this cold shot over the weekend last . 24 hours like recently is not good but 3 days is great 

[Weather Will]

Just made an appointment for the 9th....I will sacrifice for the team and dare the snow gods to cancel it!!!

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Just made an appointment for the 9th....I will sacrifice for the team and dare the snow gods to cancel it!!!

I just hope you will be able to post the snow maps from the appointment. 

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

GEPS was onboard with this before, but 12z is the first I’ve seen GEFS move strongly toward showing the western ridge move off the west coast, allowing the eastern trough axis to shift westward as well. And what happens almost immediately? The gulf opens up and precip starts flowing toward us. This is all after next weekend (7th and after), but I like to see it. Thanksgiving through the 7th or so looks northern stream dominant. After that, small shifts could open us up to more southern stream involvement.

EPS seems to be doing the same thing but later by a couple days. We’ll see how it all evolves in time. 

[winter_warlock]

Im not picky i just want a blizzard to hammer us like this one did in the dakotas !!!!

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Im not picky i just want a blizzard to hammer is like this one did !!!!

Is that Jesus in the pic?   Biblical storm?  Nice corona.  

[wxdude64]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Just made an appointment for the 9th....I will sacrifice for the team and dare the snow gods to cancel it!!!

Ditto, so it's on. 

[winter_warlock]

39 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Is that Jesus in the pic?   Biblical storm?  Nice corona.  

No it's an actual Pic from a blizzard in The dakotas years ago

[Lowershoresadness]

46 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Im not picky i just want a blizzard to hammer us like this one did in the dakotas !!!!

why do they build utility poles so low to the ground in North Dokota?

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Lowershoresadness said:

why do they build utility poles so low to the ground in North Dokota?

Oi don't know. This blizzard produced drifts over 20 ft high that's what the guy is standing on

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

No it's an actual Pic from a blizzard in The dakotas years ago

Thought that was 1888 pic.  Good screensaver 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

Im not picky i just want a blizzard to hammer us like this one did in the dakotas !!!!

That was from the Plains Blizzard of 1949 I think. What a Storm it must have been.

There were 20 ft Drifts in part's of my area during the 93 Blizzard and the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 but, generally in area's above 2500 feet. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

That was from the Plains Blizzard of 1949 I think. What a Storm it must have been.

There were 20 ft Drifts in part's of my area during the 93 Blizzard and the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 but, generally in area's above 2500 feet. 

1966 blizzard  ND

 

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, Solution Man said:

1966 blizzard  ND

 

Yeah, that's right. It's listed in the NOAA Archives.The 40's featured a big one as well.

[midatlanticweather]

Thoughts? 

 

[Daniel Boone]

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that's right. It's listed in the NOAA Archives.The 40's featured a big one as well.

Here's an excerpt from Archives of the '49 One's :

   The Blizzard of 1949 is considered one of the worst on record for the northern Plains. The first storm began January 2 and continued through January 5, with heavy snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. Subsequent storms through mid-February produced enormous snow drifts that paralyzed much of the region.