cbmclean Posted Friday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:30 PM 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS, at least the SER is squashed for awhile if this verifies.....and cold air is building back in with the can being kicked.... Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 07:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:31 PM End of the EPS run has a southern stream shortwave moving east with colder air in place. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:37 PM 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time. As long as the Mongolian High is intact all is well with winter in the Mid Atlantic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:39 PM 15 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR? No that ridge along the Inside Passage up through Yukon helps drag polar air down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Friday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:39 PM It’s interesting that the sustained warmups are being can kicked this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Friday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:41 PM 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow That's a much better look with the epo bulging AND some Atlantic side help. Been burned so many times LR last decade so nice to see but not dusting off the snowblower..yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:44 PM You love to see it from @griteater 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:51 PM 21 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time. you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:54 PM 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You love to see it from @griteater Was just about to post this. I saw someone in here speaking about the fabled long range torch that just hasn't materialized thus far. My Co-Op station (RSTM2) has recorded 3 60+ degree days this December, which is less than previous years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Friday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:02 PM 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there. Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:10 PM 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced A 'torch' in Siberia in Jan is like -20c 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:10 PM 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there. Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us it can be +15 over N Canada and it would be more than cold enough for us 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:14 PM 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there. Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us That has to happen in order to get anomalous cold into the lowlands of the midlatitudes, in particular places that are moderated by proximity to oceans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted Friday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:22 PM 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: No that ridge along the Inside Passage up through Yukon helps drag polar air down. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:27 PM GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flowWhat was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:28 PM Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier. Zero ensemble support for the op storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:32 PM 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Zero ensemble support for the op storm lol I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 08:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:44 PM 16 minutes ago, Ji said: What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something? fantabulous, actually 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Friday at 08:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:53 PM 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. I will be tracking our incoming HECS on my fight home January 4th. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Friday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:22 PM 49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. Rooting for a Jan 6-8, 1996 redux. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 09:24 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:24 PM 51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. Yeah I think the NYE storm (if there is one) will likely be a cutter that brings about the cold air closer in. The second or third wave after that are the ones we'd have a chance with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Friday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:27 PM 58 minutes ago, Ji said: What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something? Please don't poke the bear. He got enough heat from us last year, he's aware. Full redemption this year, positive vibes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted Friday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:48 PM https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Below normal but dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Friday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:00 PM 11 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Below normal but dry? I’ll take my chances with that, gotta have cold to have snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 10:14 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 10:14 PM 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I’ll take my chances with that, gotta have cold to have snow Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Friday at 10:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:18 PM 6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Below normal but dry? Well, with the cup 1/2 full, ratios would be much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Friday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:03 PM 49 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal. We're generally much better at precip than cold. DCA averages over 8 inches of precip in the winter...if we had the temps on our side, we might actually get bored of snow lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:21 PM I think 18z GFS would be a hit for the time period many have mentioned above in the last few pages. Yes, all caveats apply, but I don't hate the look at 384 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:30 PM Just now, mitchnick said: Yep. That was around the time as one of those storms on last night's Cfs I posted earlier today. That 700mb RH map is wonderfully savory. https://giphy.com/gifs/reaction-mortal-kombat-mk-j3sauffiYNcio8tY40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:33 PM GFS and GFS ensembles got better on 1st week of January pattern today, increasing the -EPO signal This is LR GFS, but it's what models are showing right now, with big ridges pinching north. I would definitely take my chances with this in early Jan. Let's see if it stays consistent or changes in the next few days. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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