December Medium/ Long Range

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there.  Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us 

it can be +15 over N Canada and it would be more than cold enough for us 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there.  Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us 

That has to happen in order to get anomalous cold into the lowlands of the midlatitudes, in particular places that are moderated by proximity to oceans.

[AlexD1990]

43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No that ridge along the Inside Passage up through Yukon helps drag polar air down.

Thank you!

[Ji]

GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow

What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something?

[Ji]

Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier. 

Zero ensemble support for the op storm lol

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Zero ensemble support for the op storm lol

I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. 

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something?

fantabulous, actually

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. 

I will be tracking our incoming HECS on my fight home January 4th. 

[bncho]

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. 

Rooting for a Jan 6-8, 1996 redux.

[Terpeast]

51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. 

Yeah I think the NYE storm (if there is one) will likely be a cutter that brings about the cold air closer in. The second or third wave after that are the ones we'd have a chance with

[Ralph Wiggum]

58 minutes ago, Ji said:

What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something?

Please don't poke the bear. He got enough heat from us last year, he's aware. Full redemption this year, positive vibes.

[dallen7908]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Below normal but dry? 

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Below normal but dry? 

I’ll take my chances with that, gotta have cold to have snow

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I’ll take my chances with that, gotta have cold to have snow

Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Below normal but dry? 

 

Well,  with the cup 1/2 full,  ratios would be much higher. 

 

 

 

[87storms]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal.

We're generally much better at precip than cold.  DCA averages over 8 inches of precip in the winter...if we had the temps on our side, we might actually get bored of snow lol.

[yoda]

I think 18z GFS would be a hit for the time period many have mentioned above in the last few pages.  Yes, all caveats apply, but I don't hate the look at 384

[yoda]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Yep. That was around the time as one of those storms on last night's Cfs I posted earlier today. That 700mb RH map is wonderfully savory.

https://giphy.com/gifs/reaction-mortal-kombat-mk-j3sauffiYNcio8tY40

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

GFS and GFS ensembles got better on 1st week of January pattern today, increasing the -EPO signal

This is LR GFS, but it's what models are showing right now, with big ridges pinching north. I would definitely take my chances with this in early Jan. Let's see if it stays consistent or changes in the next few days. 

[Chris78]

I'm not on board until Chuck is....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

I'm not on board until Chuck is....

We might be turning the corner to a little more of a snowy time.  I had a lot of roll forward stuff that was showing a +NAO January, so if the 1st week ends up with a big Greenland block that is a different pattern than my analogs. I want to see if it stays consistent though, because last year models missed a few times at that range.. 

[psuhoffman]

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

[Weather Will]

Blizzard of 2025...EPS extended  control Day 7 ending 10th; 

[WxUSAF]

I was going to check some of the CIPS analogs so this is nice to see. Early December analogs often were a bunch of traces…which is what we got.

 

[Jebman]

More good news, MUCH less west coast interaction with the jet, MORE Mid Atlantic troughs from now on into April 2025.

Numerous opportunities to time cold with storms resulting in widespread accumulating snow throughout the Mid Atlantic.

Get those shovels ready!

[Paleocene]

59 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm not on board until Chuck is....

That was an eerily positive Chuck post. Spidey senses tingling

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I was going to check some of the CIPS analogs so this is nice to see. Early December analogs often were a bunch of traces…which is what we got.

 

Gee, top analog 1985-01-21.  Merely the day that RDU set it's all-time record low of an incredible -9 F.  The height of the January 1985 polar outbreak.

[bncho]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

I have said it a lot here…
But I am rooting for a Jan 6-8, 1996 redux.
And it just might happen.

NO FEBRUARY 2024 BUST AHHHHH.

[Eskimo Joe]

40 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We might be turning the corner to a little more of a snowy time.  I had a lot of roll forward stuff that was showing a +NAO January, so if the 1st week ends up with a big Greenland block that is a different pattern than my analogs. I want to see if it stays consistent though, because last year it missed a few times at that range.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Great pattern continuing on 384hr GFS ensemble

Medium and long range models move a lot as per as what is happening currently, so I want see us make it past the Christmas major +EPO/+NAO pattern for the validity.