winter_warlock Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 3 hours ago, Ji said: he isnt a met that you should trust/follow Oh I know.. that's why I said...."FWIW".. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Oh I know.. that's why I said...."FWIW".. lol Why is he not trustworthy? Does he steal snow from people's yards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 One of the better OP euro runs for the LR…Has a snow threat NYE and no ridge bridge . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: One of the better OP euro runs for the LR… Has a snow threat NYE and no ridge bridge . It will be AN after Xmas, but doesn’t seem like a real multi day torch for our area. If we have a really warm day it’s probably with a cutter and fairly short lived. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It will be AN after Xmas, but doesn’t seem like a real multi day torch for our area. If we have a really warm day it’s probably with a cutter and fairly short lived. Is it just me or has an early early trend for this upcoming winter has been more short term warm-ups and back to cold? (It has been a breath of fresh cold air after seeing the opposite so many years!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is it just me or has an early early trend for this upcoming winter has been more short term warm-ups and back to cold? (It has been a breath of fresh cold air after seeing the opposite so many years!). Yeah duration of warm ups have been modest. Although amplitude of warmups still outdoes the cold. 3 airports all just barely BN for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier. big 50/50 showing up trapped by the -NAO. could have something larger showing up around the 6-10th, but that's a ways out there. lots of the pieces seem to be in place. very high confidence in a -EPO, and confidence in a -NAO is increasing by the day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: big 50/50 showing up trapped by the -NAO. could have something larger showing up around the 6-10th, but that's a ways out there. lots of the pieces seem to be in place. very high confidence in a -EPO, and confidence in a -NAO is increasing by the day Euro op kinda had my scenario from yesterday with a cutter (although it wasn’t a full on cutter) turn into a confluence source and put a follow on storm on a good track. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro op kinda had my scenario from yesterday with a cutter (although it wasn’t a full on cutter) turn into a confluence source and put a follow on storm on a good track. the GEPS sees the vision at 15 days out lmao perfect synoptics 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 Actually like GEFS and EPS a bit more, but i wouldn’t kick the GEPS out of bed. For D15, they all agree very well with the major features. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually like GEFS and EPS a bit more, but i wouldn’t kick the GEPS out of bed. For D15, they all agree very well with the major features. I hope no February 2024 flop 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEPS sees the vision at 15 days out lmao perfect synoptics That's a KU look. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a KU look. I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I hope no February 2024 flop That possibility is always on the table. Have to always keep that in mind. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR? Well, in that panel it gives room for the trough axis to be west of us, which gives waves more room. Obviously there can be too much room at times. Everything is a balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 WB 12Z EPS, at least the SER is squashed for awhile if this verifies.....and cold air is building back in with the can not being kicked.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 WB 12Z Day 13.5 compered to Day 14.5 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS, at least the SER is squashed for awhile if this verifies.....and cold air is building back in with the can being kicked.... Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 End of the EPS run has a southern stream shortwave moving east with colder air in place. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time. As long as the Mongolian High is intact all is well with winter in the Mid Atlantic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 15 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR? No that ridge along the Inside Passage up through Yukon helps drag polar air down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 It’s interesting that the sustained warmups are being can kicked this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow That's a much better look with the epo bulging AND some Atlantic side help. Been burned so many times LR last decade so nice to see but not dusting off the snowblower..yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 You love to see it from @griteater 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 21 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time. you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You love to see it from @griteater Was just about to post this. I saw someone in here speaking about the fabled long range torch that just hasn't materialized thus far. My Co-Op station (RSTM2) has recorded 3 60+ degree days this December, which is less than previous years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there. Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced A 'torch' in Siberia in Jan is like -20c 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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