December Medium/ Long Range

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

My recollection is we were teased with classic Nino looks and NA blocking on the extended products for months, then ultimately seeing it advertised within a couple weeks on ens guidance when it finally went poof. Regardless, my expectation for the evolving longwave pattern is a significant -EPO developing and persisting for the first 10 days or so of Jan, with the Pacific puke induced Canadian heat ridge evolving into a modest -NAO. Beyond that, we shall see.

I think the overall pattern here is a lot safer since the Pacific looks locked into moving favorably... last year was pretty much fully dependent on the Atlantic, and the Atlantic itself was contingent on a cutter leading to massive wave breaking. very precarious

[yoda]

Of course all caveats apply, but I liked the look at the end of the 18z GFS 

[rjvanals]

18z euro would give most of us a white Christmas 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

18z euro would give most of us a white Christmas 

Some flakes in the air at least, maybe a coating in places. Who would complain about that?

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some flakes in the air at least, maybe a coating in places. Who would complain about that?

I can think of 1. 

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, yoda said:

Of course all caveats apply, but I liked the look at the end of the 18z GFS 

A legitimate NA (omega) block, amped EPO ridge, and a ridge bridge. Hell yeah. Odds of it verifying...

[frd]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A legitimate NA (omega) block, amped EPO ridge, and a ridge bridge. Hell yeah. Odds of it verifying...

 

All we can ask is being  in the game.    

 

 

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A legitimate NA (omega) block, amped EPO ridge, and a ridge bridge. Hell yeah. Odds of it verifying...

Op takes low from S VA to Michigan… right. But a strong cutter like that will bring the cold air in real fast. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

But we did see this last year, constantly depicted by guidance in the LR, and it never really materialized. Other variables have influence ofc. Last winter (being a Nino)we didn't have the -EPO. I know some others don't agree, but in a current day Nina that is a key feature imo to bring cold/ flatten the SER tendency. We will need at least some help in the NA to slow/suppress the flow to increase our chances of a wave tracking further south, or a hell of a lot of luck. Hopefully we get a modest -NAO period in conjunction with an EPO ridge- which is what we are seeing at the end of the ens runs/ continuing with the extended guidance. Once the cold is in place, it comes down to wave timing, and maybe we get a little southern stream action as well. Drooling over depicted epic blocking possibilities on LR guidance is a fools errand, as usual, imo. Well timed transient -NAO episodes will have to do the trick, and often do in a Nina when we get moderate snow events.

I share the skepticism but ironically the pacific was in a more Nina base state last year than this one so far.  I don’t know what it means. I think enso is decreasing in impact, especially when it’s weak or in contradiction with the pacific background state. But let me be clear, when I say I’m interested in that look, it’s with the notion maybe we get a window where we could get a snowstorm. A. Singular. One. I’m not suggesting 2010 or 1996 are walking through that door. I’m just hoping for a 2006 or 2000 here. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Op takes low from S VA to Michigan… right. But a strong cutter like that will bring the cold air in real fast. 

Sorry it had to do that, I’m not back yet. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

AMS week in New Orleans, so that tracks.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, the -EPO developing during the first week of Jan is a near certainty, we are going to have that feature barring a complete mishandling of the Pacific. the potential -NAO just ups the ante, and there is increasing confidence that one is going to form. it's showing up on all ensembles around day 10

I want to wait another 5-7 days to see if it sticks around, but it's promising. I'm not going to let last year's debacle influence my thinking all that much

I agree to an extent but I do think there is an applicable lesson to be taken from what happened regarding the long range teases in both 2019 and 2024. In both cases the dominant long wave influence was a strongly -pdo pacific base state. In both cases the extended guidance wanted to quickly morph the pattern into a canonical look for the SSTs.  Additionally NWP did a similar thing day 15+ in 2021 when a kind of hybrid pattern dominated yet at range the extended often wanted to resume a more canonical Nina look. I think guidance is over weighting enso SSTs at range. I don’t know the physics behind it but that seems too much a coincidence. 
 

But that isn’t necessarily what’s going on here. Actually guidance is bucking a standard weak cold enso look. Now that doesn’t mean it’s right. Maybe it’s wrong for a different reason now but I don’t think it’s doing the same thing as last year fwiw. 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree to an extent but I do think there is an applicable lesson to be taken from what happened regarding the long range teases in both 2019 and 2024. In both cases the dominant long wave influence was a strongly -pdo pacific base state. In both cases the extended guidance wanted to quickly morph the pattern into a canonical look for the SSTs.  Additionally NWP did a similar thing day 15+ in 2021 when a kind of hybrid pattern dominated yet at range the extended often wanted to resume a more canonical Nina look. I think guidance is over weighting enso SSTs at range. I don’t know the physics behind it but that seems too much a coincidence. 
 

But that isn’t necessarily what’s going on here. Actually guidance is bucking a standard weak cold enso look. Now that doesn’t mean it’s right. Maybe it’s wrong for a different reason now but I don’t think it’s doing the same thing as last year fwiw. 

How many more years do you  think were looking at a - pdo?

How many years are we into this - cycle?

7 years?

[WEATHER53]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Talking about Jan 12-17 Mr Tomer is bullshit 

We have wised   up to the always 15-20 days away crap that murdered last winter

Also I don’t see more than 1-2 days of warmth coming up oscillating with some very good cold   .No 5-10 days of awful warmth 

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

AMS week in New Orleans, so that tracks.

Im in Maine Jan 14-15 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

How many more years do you  think were looking at a - pdo?

How many years are we into this - cycle?

7 years?

Im less sure of the larger PDO cycle, but we don’t need a wholesale PDO flip we just need the current near record negative one to end. There are cycles within cycles of the PDO.  Within the decades long larger cycles there are shorter spikes. We don’t need a crazy positive PDO. 2010 was neutral. 2014 was slightly negative.  A lot of the snowy winters in the 60s were neutral or slightly negative. But we need the -2 to -3 dip within the longer -pdo to end. 
 

There is some regularity to these cycles too. The last 3 severe -pdo periods lasted 4-9 years. We’re now 5 years in so it could start to flip anytime now. But it might take a few more years. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Talking about Jan 12-17 Mr Tomer is bullshit 

We have wised   up to the always 15-20 days away crap that murdered last winter

Also I don’t see more than 1-2 days of warmth coming up oscillating with some very good cold   .No 5-10 days of awful warmth 

Merry Christmas. 

[DownpourDave]

On 12/12/2024 at 8:12 PM, SnowLover22 said:

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

 

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise. 

 

Lets get this at -1.00 by January 1st

 

[Weather Will]

WB  latest GEFS extended is cooling North America faster the first week of January this run.....

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

My recollection is we were teased with classic Nino looks and NA blocking on the extended products for months, then ultimately seeing it advertised within a couple weeks on ens guidance when it finally went poof. Regardless, my expectation for the evolving longwave pattern is a significant -EPO developing and persisting for the first 10 days or so of Jan, with the Pacific puke induced Canadian heat ridge evolving into a modest -NAO. Beyond that, we shall see.

2019 was always an epic-looking Week 3 of the weeklies.  Sometimes the tail end of the ENS would start to look good but it would then disappear.  Rinse and repeat all winter.

Last year it was well it was progressing nicely from d16 up to d10.  I seem to remember it breaking the d10 barrier at one point, and then completely collapsing. 

 

 

[cbmclean]

Also in 2021 the ensembles kept showing us getting a portion of the Midwest cold.  It didn't happen.  And yes I am still bitter.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This doesn't look so bad on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean

The thing is, I'm suspicious of the big +EPO ridge turning into a -NAO in the medium range (usually they don't run into each other like that). And for the last few days, the long range GEFS has tried to build a -EPO at the 384hr range, to lose it lately. That Pacific pattern has been stuck there for the last 3 days. Let's see what happens when we get closer. Verbatim, it's a good look, but I don't really like the evolution to getting there.  It might end up verifying as a slight -pna or something warmer. 

That particular panel, the way that it is, looks good though.  Let's see if the MJO remains strong going into the later phases.. Usually after such a strong +EPO, at H5 the pattern has to reload though. The ridging usually doesn't just go poleward all around and give us snow. 

[Kevin Reilly]

35 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This doesn't look so bad on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean

The thing is, I'm suspicious of the big +EPO ridge turning into a -NAO in the medium range (usually they don't run into each other like that). And for the last few days, the long range GEFS has tried to build a -EPO at the 384hr range, to lose it lately. That Pacific pattern has been stuck there for the last 3 days. Let's see what happens when we get closer. Verbatim, it's a good look, but I don't really like the evolution to getting there.  It might end up verifying as a slight -pna or something warmer. 

That particular panel, the way that it is, looks good though. Let's see if the MJO remains strong going into the later phases.. Usually after such a strong +EPO, at H5 the pattern has to reload though. 

Ehh there's always a first let's try it out could be interesting to see something new with a +EPO turning into a

-NAO.... What can go wrong?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Ehh there's always a first let's try it out could be interesting to see something new with a +EPO turning into a

-NAO.... What can go wrong?

Maybe the models are weighing too heavily the MJO? Should be interesting to see if it holds this look the next few days..  I also think at that time we are hitting Day 40 on the +PNA phase, which is usually a complete cycle. 

[Ji]

Thousands of people on a weenie Facebook site thought we were getting 25 inches of snow tonight

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

Thousands of people on a weenie Facebook site thought we were getting 25 inches of snow tonight

Did you mislead your followers Jay?

[NorthArlington101]

Unrelated, but I’m not giving up on a Christmas Eve/Day miracle. Most of the OPs have something wintry in the area. I guess I’d take a glaze of ice… something to spice it up. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Unrelated, but I’m not giving up on a Christmas Eve/Day miracle. Most of the OPs have something wintry in the area. I guess I’d take a glaze of ice… something to spice it up. 

EPO is raging positive.. it usually busts warm. 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

November/December Snow events of 1"+ IMBY since December 2009.  Sucks but I don't worry about December here in UHI central.  Even Mt PSU probably only averages 5-6" in December.  

12/16/10: 1.5"

12/8/13: 1"

12/9/17: 2.25"

11/15/18: 2"

12/16/20: 1"

 

 

You need to move, that’s pitiful.