December Medium/ Long Range

[benjammin]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s the coldest 35 degrees ever 

Given the time of the year the angle of cold will be impressive though...

[ravensrule]

25 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

I believe you're thinking of Christmas Eve 2022 when the high was 20 but it felt much colder.  The last Arctic outbreak I can remember was January 5 and 6th of 2018 when the high temperature failed to reach 20 in Baltimore.   The last day with a sub-10 high was January 19 of 1994 when the high was 5.  The lowest high ever (3 F) occurred on February 10, 1899 during "the greatest Arctic outbreak in history" according to David Ludlum.  Temperatures fell to 0 F along the beaches of the Gulf Coast and ice flowed from the mouth of the Mississippi River into the Gulf ...  

I remember 1899 very well. Damn was it cold. I had icicles hanging from everywhere. 

[WEATHER53]

27 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

I believe you're thinking of Christmas Eve 2022 when the high was 20 but it felt much colder.  The last Arctic outbreak I can remember was January 5 and 6th of 2018 when the high temperature failed to reach 20 in Baltimore.   The last day with a sub-10 high was January 19 of 1994 when the high was 5.  The lowest high ever (3 F) occurred on February 10, 1899 during "the greatest Arctic outbreak in history" according to David Ludlum.  Temperatures fell to 0 F along the beaches of the Gulf Coast and ice flowed from the mouth of the Mississippi River into the Gulf ...  

I think that might be the time that BWI had a high of 18 for three days in a row?

[PrinceFrederickWx]

57 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Sorry I was mistaken... it was two years ago.  And the wind was howling too.  That was the only real cold spell of that winter I believe.

 

It was a 36-hour pause of the never-ending blowtorch. I literally received zero accumulating snow the entire winter. Worst winter of all time IMHO

[NorthArlington101]

ICON not going without a fight, but looks like a modest step back from 12z. 18z ENS held steady with 12z ENS.

Only cooperative for accumulation for favored spots. Poor timing with this during daylight hours.

[BlizzardNole]

59 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

I believe you're thinking of Christmas Eve 2022 when the high was 20 but it felt much colder.  The last Arctic outbreak I can remember was January 5 and 6th of 2018 when the high temperature failed to reach 20 in Baltimore.   The last day with a sub-10 high was January 19 of 1994 when the high was 5.  The lowest high ever (3 F) occurred on February 10, 1899 during "the greatest Arctic outbreak in history" according to David Ludlum.  Temperatures fell to 0 F along the beaches of the Gulf Coast and ice flowed from the mouth of the Mississippi River into the Gulf ...  

I just looked up Feb 1899 for DC -- OMG

[Ji]

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

ICON not going without a fight, but looks like a modest step back from 12z. 18z ENS held steady with 12z ENS.

Only cooperative for accumulation for favored spots. Poor timing with this during daylight hours.

thats a huge step back. i dont know why we look at anything but the euro @Deck Pic

[WEATHER53]

12 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I just looked up Feb 1899 for DC -- OMG

Long long time ago and DCA would register +10 to +15 to that if that sort of air mass would arrive today.

I think that location may have been in NW then or Navy yard. I think they had been taking temps since  1877?

 

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats a huge step back. i dont know why we look at anything but the euro @Deck Pic

EURO AI looks like ICON... just too warm to snow during the day outside our favorite spots even with temps being BN

[IronTy]

24 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I just looked up Feb 1899 for DC -- OMG

Imagine how cold it was in Mongolia then.  The ghost of Tamerlane.  

[rjvanals]

For those who like a cold Christmas the GFS gives us a cold rain 

[WEATHER53]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

For those who like a cold Christmas the GFS gives us a cold rain 

Where do you see that?

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

For those who like a cold Christmas the GFS gives us a cold rain 

We take it.  Just look up instead of down…clouds are white 

[CAPE]

The latest extended products have normal temps back in the east within the first few days of Jan, then colder from there through mid month. Pattern might go more 'classic Nina' by the end of the month, but the -EPO looks to persist into early Feb which should keep the SER on the flat side.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO AI looks like ICON... just too warm to snow during the day outside our favorite spots even with temps being BN

Is the Euro AI considered to be an operational model?

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, rjvanals said:

For those who like a cold Christmas the GFS gives us a cold rain 

Ouch... 37 and rain

[BristowWx]

35 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Ouch... 37 and rain

37 is below normal.  I think.  

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

Ouch... 37 and rain

That shouldn’t hurt we have abundant scar tissue from 37 and rain

[87storms]

39 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

That shouldn’t hurt we have abundant scar tissue from 37 and rain

I'm actually getting paper-like cuts on my fingertips from playing too much basketball in the cold.  This happened a couple years ago, too, which ended up being a better winter in Frederick.  I might start using this as an early season sign...like the snowy owl appearances.

[WxUSAF]

NE MD pummeled!

 

[frd]

 

 

Euro 18Z

https://x.com/BradyBGWX/status/1869170215990469060

[pazzo83]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Two years ago Xmas eve had a low of 6 at BWI. BWI hasn’t had a high temp in the single digits in decades?

94 probably, right?

[pazzo83]

5 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

I believe you're thinking of Christmas Eve 2022 when the high was 20 but it felt much colder.  The last Arctic outbreak I can remember was January 5 and 6th of 2018 when the high temperature failed to reach 20 in Baltimore.   The last day with a sub-10 high was January 19 of 1994 when the high was 5.  The lowest high ever (3 F) occurred on February 10, 1899 during "the greatest Arctic outbreak in history" according to David Ludlum.  Temperatures fell to 0 F along the beaches of the Gulf Coast and ice flowed from the mouth of the Mississippi River into the Gulf ...  

we were actually in Baltimore during that 1994 cold outbreak.  It basically never got above zero on the drive there from VA - Staunton had a low near -20F that morning.  The Inner Harbor was frozen solid lol.

[MN Transplant]

23 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

we were actually in Baltimore during that 1994 cold outbreak.  It basically never got above zero on the drive there from VA - Staunton had a low near -20F that morning.  The Inner Harbor was frozen solid lol.

They still had the old wind chill scale back then and the numbers were insane back home in Minnesota.  -60, -70, -80.  We were out of school for a few days and I remember just sitting and watching tv coverage of the Northridge earthquake.

[WxUSAF]

36 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

94 probably, right?

I believe so

[wxdude64]

33 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

we were actually in Baltimore during that 1994 cold outbreak.  It basically never got above zero on the drive there from VA - Staunton had a low near -20F that morning.  The Inner Harbor was frozen solid lol.

That was a COLD week, had 6 out of 7 mornings below zero, with the 19th at -15. Bonus was the 4-6 inches of snow/ice OTG during that week. 

[Kevin Reilly]

6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

ICON not going without a fight, but looks like a modest step back from 12z. 18z ENS held steady with 12z ENS.

Only cooperative for accumulation for favored spots. Poor timing with this during daylight hours.

Daylight hours??? You know the sun angle is of zero consequence right now? Shortest days of the year have about arrived.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Daylight hours??? You know the sun angle is of zero consequence right now? Shortest days of the year have about arrived.

In an area that's frequently on the margins like ours, wether or not the sun is out could mean the difference between being above or below freezing.

[87storms]

They still had the old wind chill scale back then and the numbers were insane back home in Minnesota.  -60, -70, -80.  We were out of school for a few days and I remember just sitting and watching tv coverage of the Northridge earthquake.

I’ll never forget my hs ski trip to killington that winter. Couldn’t even ski one of the days. Way below zero wind chills. Haven’t experienced cold like that since.

[Terpeast]

Other than the vodka cold in 94, I remember getting about 2” of fluffy snow on top of 3 inches of thick ice. My dad tried to drive his jeep up our driveway, he got only halfway up the hill and he slid all the way back down.