December Medium/ Long Range

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ensembles this morning start to cool Canada down around Jan 1-2, so I’m thinking we start to see colder air build back in around Jan 3-5

just in time for my Jan 7-14 vacay. Last time I was there was the Jan 3, 2022 storm. Book it

[WEATHER53]

15 hours ago, cbmclean said:

What are you using to visualize the state of the "Mongolian resource".  After it reasserts itself this weekend, what is the time frame you believe it will start to impact the sensible weather in the eastern conus?  

500 mb current maps and then allow 8 ish days for it to arrive here when the set up is correct there.  Does not matter much what’s downstream, that higher  pressure will work down here.

This method allows for observation of actual current weather and I can forecast from decades of observational experience and outcomes what will occur next with this aspect .  It’s not microscopic with 30 outcomes changing every 6 hours.  It’s a binocular style approach covering just that one single aspect that works very effectively for outcomes in our region as yo cold air 

Thank you for asking 

 

[WxUSAF]

Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday. 

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday. 

We need a "shocker" emoji. 

The temperature anomalies over Hudson Bay are pretty crazy warm on the GFS. Ugly

[WxUSAF]

lol GGEM near 0F Monday morning. GFS upper 10s/low 20s.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

We need a "shocker" emoji. 

The temperature anomalies over Hudson Bay are pretty crazy warm on the GFS. Ugly

Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay.

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ensembles this morning start to cool Canada down around Jan 1-2, so I’m thinking we start to see colder air build back in around Jan 3-5

In return from Revelstoke on the 4th so the timing checks out.  Euro 15 day snowfall…there are still some rooms available at the lodge lol 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay.

It’s the coldest 35 degrees ever 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

500 mb current maps and then allow 8 ish days for it to arrive here when the set up is correct there.  Does not matter much what’s downstream, that higher  pressure will work down here.

This method allows for observation of actual current weather and I can forecast from decades of observational experience and outcomes what will occur next with this aspect .  It’s not microscopic with 30 outcomes changing every 6 hours.  It’s a binocular style approach covering just that one single aspect that works very effectively for outcomes in our region as yo cold air 

Thank you for asking 

 

Legit question not trying to fight trying to learn. The correlation to cold is legitimate, however doesn’t it depend on the mid latitude long wave pattern across North America?  That cold does not necessarily have to get directed here, and so how do you factor in that part of the equation?  Thanks. 

[paxpatriot]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay.

[North Balti Zen]

42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday. 

Don't know what any of that means. I only speak German now. 

[WEATHER53]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Legit question not trying to fight trying to learn. The correlation to cold is legitimate, however doesn’t it depend on the mid latitude long wave pattern across North America?  That cold does not necessarily have to get directed here, and so how do you factor in that part of the equation?  Thanks. 

I dont   know the mechanics but when Mongo is in the pink and especially the deeper pinks/reds  then that cold air almost always bullies its way to us .  And again  Im not sure why but when the long wave is as you stated, the Mongo region is in the blue already anyway .  Probably not cause and effect yet it is consistent 

Many of us who started in 60’s didn’t have the tools that exist now. We kinda had to learn how to forecast from the ground up.  It’s not exactly appropriate to this  discussion but may shed light I  think  on how we  end up in “conflict” at times. 
Thanks  for the question

[T. August]

Euro sucked for Friday, but perhaps the more interesting thing is it has some areas just NW of the cities below freezing from Saturday morning through Tuesday.

[HighStakes]

51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol GGEM near 0F Monday morning. GFS upper 10s/low 20s.

Euro splits the difference lol. Has me about 10 degrees Monday morning.

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Euro splits the difference lol. Has me about 10 degrees Monday morning.

I guess it's nice to know it can still be cold... but so annoying we can't get things to line up.

[cbmclean]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Best case scenario is when the pac jet starts to retract we get enough cross polar flow to replenish our cold source quickly. Worst case would be we don’t and we waste 1-2 weeks of a better long wave pattern with unworkable temps then by the time it’s getting cold enough the pattern is breaking down.

The synergy between the jet extension and the -------PDO/SER is killer for us because when Canada starts to reload, the SER goes all Gandalf "YOU SHALL NOT PASS" and slows /prevents the cold from reaching us.  This year there seems to be a tendency for -EPO/+TNH which we have seen can have the capability of squashing the SER so there may be reason, if not for optimism, at least reduced pessimism: maybe it will be different this year.

Of course we might just end up back to cold and dry, but I personally prefer that to flametorch.

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I guess it's nice to know it can still be cold... but so annoying we can't get things to line up.

That's definitely the downside of relying on -EPO.  Will we see "domestic" cold return to workability when/if the PDO shifts?  Only time will tell.

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I guess it's nice to know it can still be cold... but so annoying we can't get things to line up.

It has been frustrating however it looks like things could be lining up for a 2-3 week period after New Year's. Teleconnections look good. Hopefully things stay on track. Then it's just timing and luck as you know. EPO goes negative around 12/29 at the same time PNA goes positive. Also looks like AO head towards negative with a slightly negative NAO. Just give us a decent shot at a couple moderate events with a light event or 2 thrown in during January. That's all I ask for!

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

In return from Revelstoke on the 4th so the timing checks out.  Euro 15 day snowfall…there are still some rooms available at the lodge lol 

Yeah I couldn’t book any major trips this year because I was going through some stuff earlier and now I just started my new job. But keeping an eye on canaan when it gets cold again, and I have the points saved up for another trip out west next year. 

[Interstate]

25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I guess it's nice to know it can still be cold... but so annoying we can't get things to line up.

Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Interstate said:

Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore?

Nah, I've got a goldfish memory. You could tell me anything. Feel like a BN December is out of the ordinary lately.

[North Balti Zen]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore?

Shoveled that cold for days and days. So much cold shoveling.  Be careful, I said, don't overexert yourself, shoveling the cold. 

[HighStakes]

12 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore?

What?

[ravensrule]

18 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

What?

I need some of the strong stuff he is smoking.

[Round Hill WX]

32 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore?

2 years ago....

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

In return from Revelstoke on the 4th so the timing checks out.  Euro 15 day snowfall…there are still some rooms available at the lodge lol 

How are you getting WB maps to display in mm?

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore?

Two years ago Xmas eve had a low of 6 at BWI. BWI hasn’t had a high temp in the single digits in decades?

[Interstate]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Two years ago Xmas eve had a low of 6 at BWI. BWI hasn’t had a high temp in the single digits in decades?

Sorry I was mistaken... it was two years ago.  And the wind was howling too.  That was the only real cold spell of that winter I believe.

 

[Ji]

EPS with a quick pattern change. By Jan 1??

[dallen7908]

I believe you're thinking of Christmas Eve 2022 when the high was 20 but it felt much colder.  The last Arctic outbreak I can remember was January 5 and 6th of 2018 when the high temperature failed to reach 20 in Baltimore.   The last day with a sub-10 high was January 19 of 1994 when the high was 5.  The lowest high ever (3 F) occurred on February 10, 1899 during "the greatest Arctic outbreak in history" according to David Ludlum.  Temperatures fell to 0 F along the beaches of the Gulf Coast and ice flowed from the mouth of the Mississippi River into the Gulf ...