Terpeast Posted December 16, 2024 Author Share Posted December 16, 2024 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I mean if New England is capitulating then it's going to be bad here too. They’re capitulating in mid December? Sheesh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: They’re capitulating in mid December? Sheesh I'm referring to the weekend storm, though they're also seeing the long ranges potentially punting most of January. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 Looks like the gulf is closed for business for the late week clipper systems: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2024121612&fh=102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2024 Author Share Posted December 16, 2024 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I'm referring to the weekend storm, though they're also seeing the long ranges potentially punting most of January. Yeah I wouldn’t be so quick to punt January. Ensembles/weeklies show the PNA ridge building back 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 9 hours ago, CAPE said: The last few runs of the Euro weeklies are depicting an increasingly colder look for early to mid January. GFSX and CMC weeklies are advertising the same general h5 look for the first half of Jan. All 3 are hinting at +heights building into the NAO space. The Mongolian resource has stayed in play with no shutdown looming and reasserts again this weekend . Just gotta get a southern Miller A and not the to our west junk that the models can’t handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 The Canadian ensembles try to start cross polar flow by New Year's Day. We'll see how it goes, but hopefully we can at least prevent a torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR. It's rushing it, I don't get back until the 4th 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Looks like spv going to get squeezed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 17 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Look at that torch in the Alps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR. Yeah, that looks plenty good enough. Hopefully, the GFS is incorrect in the magnitude and expansive area of above normal Temps in North America preceding this output. We definitely don't want a good pattern be ruined by not enough cold coming down from Source Region. We should be fine as long as CPF gets established even if Canada is torched ala GFS as it should cool rapidly. It looks as though some blocking is trying to take shape in this Output as well. We really would want that after CPF fills in the cold as we don't want a 01-02 situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 bamwx is getting nervous 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Look at that torch in the Alps. That's a 10 mb temp anomaly panel. Not very relevant to sensible weather. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's a 10 mb temp anomaly panel. Not very relevant to sensible weather. It's not meshing well with his holiday vacation plans in the stratosphere 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 The 1-4 week from the 3 pm CPC is warm and dry.................................... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Why are you looking at 10 HP temp anomalies? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2024 Share Posted December 16, 2024 15 minutes ago, TSG said: It's not meshing well with his holiday vacation plans in the stratosphere 2 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: The Mongolian resource has stayed in play with no shutdown looming and reasserts again this weekend . Just gotta get a southern Miller A and not the to our west junk that the models can’t handle What are you using to visualize the state of the "Mongolian resource". After it reasserts itself this weekend, what is the time frame you believe it will start to impact the sensible weather in the eastern conus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 4 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Wait, is that a stratospheric avocado in the other hemisphere? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 32 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What are you using to visualize the state of the "Mongolian resource". After it reasserts itself this weekend, what is the time frame you believe it will start to impact the sensible weather in the eastern conus? Good question. Don't expect a logical answer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Good question. Don't expect a logical answer. "We sent three reporters to Ulaanbaatar to find out!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 5 hours ago, CAPE said: 12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR. The latest Euro Weeklies today show a workable pattern developing by the beginning of January. This run shows the first 3 weeks of next month should at least give us chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest Euro Weeklies today show a workable pattern developing by the beginning of January. This run shows the first 3 weeks of next month should at least give us chances. The extended products have been pretty persistent with the idea of a cold period in January. We shall see if we get lucky with coincidence of antecedent cold and a well timed wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 Giving this until Jan 10th. If we don't have the pattern change ongoing or a workable threat under 120 hrs by then, it's probably another dead ratter winter inbound for us. 1 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Giving this until Jan 10th. If we don't have the pattern change ongoing or a workable threat under 120 hrs by then, it's probably another dead ratter winter inbound for us. 5 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 CFS among others leading the MJO to 7 portends a colder January here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 Icon 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 I know it’s the icon, but that is a huge jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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