December Medium/ Long Range

[Ji]

Gfs a little closer to something this run. That northern steam part goes a little more south wed at least score a light event 1-3” 

You mean 1-3 flakes?

[yoda]

00z GFS tosses out some mood snow for Christmas afternoon into evening

[Ji]

00z GFS tosses out some mood snow for Christmas afternoon into evening

lol our new window

[yoda]

Day 14 to 15 Euro at h5 is lulz... perfect placement of the ridge out west and a ton of energy coming down into the Plains into the Gulf from Canada with an SLP in S LA

[BristowWx]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

lol our new window

6z tosses out some mood drops on Christmas this time.  Along with warm temps coast to coast.  Festive! 

[IronTy]

06Z is rough.   

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

06Z is rough.   

Can't get any worse than the past 5 years here. 

[Benjamn3]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

06Z is rough.   

Just an opp run. Seems kinda split in my oppinion, on what the 10 day period holds. Looks seasonal to me, not shit the blinds but boring. Which for Xmas is just fine. 

[87storms]

06Z is rough.   

12z is our most important run of the year so far.

[IronTy]

28 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Just an opp run. Seems kinda split in my oppinion, on what the 10 day period holds. Looks seasonal to me, not shit the blinds but boring. Which for Xmas is just fine. 

If I had a dollar for every time someone has posted "just the op at range" as cope then I'd be driving an Enzo out to the cabin for Christmas.  Torches always verify at Christmas. 

[TSSN+]

Just throwing out completely different solutions every 6 hours lol

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Just throwing out completely different solutions every 6 hours lol

 

 

Confusion due to confliction. 

[Benjamn3]

38 minutes ago, IronTy said:

If I had a dollar for every time someone has posted "just the op at range" as cope then I'd be driving an Enzo out to the cabin for Christmas.  Torches always verify at Christmas. 

Well, get the keys ready cause I ain’t stopping my optimism. Ain’t like I’m hoping for 25 and snow, 48 and pleasant is fine by me. I’ll bet you’re a joy at parties. Lol I’m currently building a farm so I should hope for warm. 

[NorthArlington101]

12z GFS dusts us on Friday - only 5 days out!

[Solution Man]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z GFS dusts us on Friday - only 5 days out!

Yes please

[Terpeast]

52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z GFS dusts us on Friday - only 5 days out!

Looks like a weak clipper. Will be interesting to see if it trends stronger or disappears. 

[Kevin Reilly]

40 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a weak clipper. Will be interesting to see if it trends stronger or disappears. 

Disappears Poof!

[SnowenOutThere]

Euro was also decently close to something too 

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

GFS high temps on the Dec29th. Put it in the bank. Only warm verifies.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

If I had a dollar for every time someone has posted "just the op at range" as cope then I'd be driving an Enzo out to the cabin for Christmas.  Torches always verify at Christmas. 

Christmas 2017 had two possibilities on the models 10 days out. One was a cold shot and the other was widespread 70s, the cold one verified.

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

GFS high temps on the Dec29th. Put it in the bank. Only warm verifies.

Gonna be in New Orleans on the 29th and 30th for two Billy Strings shows so...looks pretty great. 

[cbmclean]

4 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Christmas 2017 had two possibilities on the models 10 days out. One was a cold shot and the other was widespread 70s, the cold one verified.

I remember that well.  Like you said, the models were all over the place.  I remember commenting that they we were definitely getting either tropical warmth or bitter cold, or bone dry or sopping wet.  That time anyway the cold won and it was a memorable cold snap in eastern NC.  It got down to 0 F at my house, ponds were freezing over, shore fast ice was forming in the outer banks!  That was all she wrote for that winter though.  The rest of January was mild.  Looked like the MJO was timed to give a Fab Feb but it turned into an utter torch instead.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, cbmclean said:

I remember that well.  Like you said, the models were all over the place.  I remember commenting that they we were definitely getting either tropical warmth or bitter cold, or bone dry or soppign wet.  That time anyway the cold one and it was a memorable cold snap in eastern NC.  It got down to 0 F at my house, ponds were freezing over, shorefast ice was forming in the outer banks!  That was all she wrote for that winter though.  The rest of January was mild.  Looked like the MJO was timed to give a Fab Feb but it turned into an utter torch instead.

For DC January 2018 had mild spells but the month overall was below normal by a fraction of a degree.

[midatlanticweather]

Well - think above normal for Christmas seems to be the way we go. Will keep an eye on this weekend and not expect anything! 

[CAPE]

The last few runs of the Euro weeklies are depicting an increasingly colder look for early to mid January.

GFSX and CMC weeklies are advertising the same general h5 look for the first half of Jan. All 3 are hinting at +heights building into the NAO space.

[BristowWx]

On 12/4/2024 at 6:10 AM, Benjamn3 said:

Do we shit the blinds for Xmas week yet? It’s a yearly tradition ya know. 

yes...yes we do

[CAPE]

The beginning of the advertised pattern change on the extended products is evident at the very end of the latest ens runs. The NPJ is forecast to be (too) extended for the last week of the month, but around NYE there is some retraction that relocates the exit region, so the GoA trough retrogrades while a downstream h5 ridge starts to redevelop. The jet configuration has been shifting, so its hard to say how stable this will be. In general a retracted jet is favored in a Nina, but with the weak nature of it(and tropical forcing) who knows. When it retracts too far westward the characteristic Nina NPAC ridge develops.

 

[WxUSAF]

Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run. 

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run. 

Gfs has been consistent in advertising at least some flurries areawide

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run. 

There are some Miller B SECS-y looks that would make us mad, but definitely a vast improvement from the ens runs I’d been checking yesterday. More of a shot at something legitimate than it seems.