December Medium/ Long Range

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Today's edition of the weeklies looks even colder for early Jan. Time a wave or 2 and we defeat historical weak Nino snow climo.

The Weeklies always seem to look good weeks out but it hardly seems to be realized. We can’t even get the models to agree on pattern days 5-10 I don’t believe day 15+ Show me that look at hour 120 then we are talkin 

[CAPE]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The Weeklies always seem to look good weeks out but it hardly seems to be realized. We can’t even get the models to agree on pattern days 5-10 I don’t believe day 15+ Show me that look at hour 120 then we are talkin 

Grain of salt ofc but the extended products have been consistently depicting this pattern evolution. A week to 10 days beyond the end of the current ens runs is the timeframe when the extended tools should be useful. Not a month beyond.

[Ji]

Worthless model. Just making up shite every 6 hours plus

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Worthless model. Just making up shite every 6 hours plus

Pray for once in its wretched existence the CMC is correct…Jesus Christ for once for fucks sake…happy holidays 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Pray for once in its wretched existence the CMC is correct…Jesus Christ for once for fucks sake…happy holidays 

Winter hasn’t even started, seems like we are already on borrowed time. First hobby I’ve ever done and got absolutely no satisfaction.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Winter hasn’t even started, seems like we are already on borrowed time. First hobby I’ve ever done and got absolutely no satisfaction.

It’s tough that’s for sure.  Probably because our snow  window is so narrow.  We can never afford to waste sub 540 air. 15 Dec to 1 March here at least.  Be happy we don’t live in Raleigh.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Has winter long range ever looked this bad in mid December?

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s tough that’s for sure.  Probably because our snow  window is so narrow.  We can never afford to waste sub 540 air. 15 Dec to 1 March here at least.  Be happy we don’t live in Raleigh.  

You’re right Raleigh is the new Atlanta.

[AlexD1990]

Has winter long range ever looked this bad in mid December?

It doesn't even look that bad? Where are people getting this from lol

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[CAPE]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

It doesn't even look that bad? Where are people getting this from lol

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Yeah it isn't a shit the blinds look.

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

It doesn't even look that bad? Where are people getting this from lol

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

PSU has been hinting at the models showing a SER Pac puke fest sometime after the new year and he made a post explaining how that setup is usually self sustained for weeks on end. He's not 100% on board yet because he said some pieces aren't in place yet but given our luck over the past 8 years...

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Has winter long range ever looked this bad in mid December?

First winter in the forums, eh?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

PSU has been hinting at the models showing a SER Pac puke fest sometime after the new year and he made a post explaining how that setup is usually self sustained. He's not 100% on board yet because he said some pieces aren't in place yet but given our luck for the past 8 years...

I've had 10 warning criteria winter storms the last 8 years, and I am at 60 ft elevation on the central eastern shore. 'Our luck' hasn't been that bad.

[Benjamn3]

Does anyone ever think maybe all this is a “watched pot doesn’t boil” kind of thing. Maybe if we quit watching it, we will have another 09-10 lol 

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

First winter in the forums, eh?

Second actually, but I've been lurking since 22-23. I used CWG to track between 16-17 and 22-23.

[jayyy]

Damn, can we just get a LITTLE snow to calm some nerves in here!? Haha. Besides PSU, CAPE, Heisy, and a handful of others providing some unbiased analysis and having some great discussions, it’s kind of a shitshow in here right now. Stormy’s always off his rocker but good lord haha. Everybody chill.

It’s December 14th for starters. We knew our ceiling would be low this winter. Patience is going to be required this winter - we ALL knew this going in. Let’s not act surprised about what PSU is saying. He’s not wrong. We may not LIKE what he has to say - as we all want a ton of snow (him included I’m sure) - but what’s the point of pretending like we’re in some epic +PDO Modoki niño and ignoring the facts? The man isn’t saying it won’t snow. We *could* get lucky and strike gold sure, but the historical data (plus our new base state) strongly argues that getting a good snowfall this winter will be like pulling teeth.

We’re not out of the game. Keep your expectations in check and you won’t be disappointed.

[IronTy]

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Second actually, but I've been lurking since 22-23. I used CWG to track between 16-17 and 22-23.

This happens every year.  Didn't even make it to Christmas this season.   It's gonna get worse, so strap in. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

My snowfall chart just seemed to have more hits in that window than 21-22

With friends like that…

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Damn, can we just get a LITTLE snow to calm some nerves in here!? Haha. Besides PSU, CAPE, Heisy, and a handful of others providing some unbiased analysis and having some great discussions, it’s kind of a shitshow in here right now. Stormy’s always off his rocker but good lord haha. Everybody chill.

It’s December 14th for starters. We knew our ceiling would be low this winter. Patience is going to be required this winter - we ALL knew this going in. Let’s not act surprised about what PSU is saying. He’s not wrong. We may not LIKE what he has to say - as we all want a ton of snow (him included I’m sure) - but what’s the point of pretending like we’re in some epic +PDO Modoki niño and ignoring the facts? The man isn’t saying it won’t snow. We *could* get lucky and strike gold sure, but the historical data (plus our new base state) strongly argues that getting a good snowfall this winter will be like pulling teeth.

We’re not out of the game. Keep your expectations in check and you won’t be disappointed.

In fairness when the mood switched 2 weeks ago I changed my expectations from less than an inch to at most 6 inches for the metros. I knew this form of ENSO never gives us those 18in - 2ft storms. I didn't change my contest entry though because that would've for sure jinxed it.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

That's the look we want in a Nina- shortwave energy can drop southward further west and have space to develop a surface low to our SW, instead of what we have now/over the next 10 days which is probably too far east.

That’s very 2014ish. Now of course the key is getting lucky with waves and also to have that last longer than a New York minute.  It’s a pattern that can still take persistence so we need it to settle on for more than a week to really cash in probably. 
 

But take what we can get it at least suggests we get a legit window of opportunity after the likely late month moderation which is more than we can say for some winters lately, sadly. 

[Ji]

That’s very 2014ish. Now of course the key is getting lucky with waves and also to have that last longer than a New York minute.  It’s a pattern that can still take persistence so we need it to settle on for more than a week to really cash in probably. 
 
But take what we can get it at least suggests we get a legit window of opportunity after the likely late month moderation which is more than we can say for some winters lately, sadly. 

How close are you to 50 inches?

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

PSU, you are very smart, and your analysis is solid, and unfortunately probably going to end up being correct, but your relentless, repetitive, passive aggressive pessimism is a downer.  

How do the ensemble snow probabilities look?  

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s very 2014ish. Now of course the key is getting lucky with waves and also to have that last longer than a New York minute.  It’s a pattern that can still take persistence so we need it to settle on for more than a week to really cash in probably. 
 

But take what we can get it at least suggests we get a legit window of opportunity after the likely late month moderation which is more than we can say for some winters lately, sadly. 

Agree. At least some cold will be here it appears. Without that it is over anyways. I am tracking a small event for tomorrow. And you have already had a decent event. This winter is progressing fine so far. 

[TSSN+]

Nothing like lack of snow threats to get the holiday cheer going in here lol 

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Has winter long range ever looked this bad in mid December?

 

43 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

It doesn't even look that bad? Where are people getting this from lol

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

 

40 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

PSU has been hinting at the models showing a SER Pac puke fest sometime after the new year and he made a post explaining how that setup is usually self sustained for weeks on end. He's not 100% on board yet because he said some pieces aren't in place yet but given our luck over the past 8 years...

I made some vague comments that are being taken in various directions so I feel like maybe I should clarify.  First of all my analysis was not based purely on models, my post of the GEFS the other day was purely to illustrate a very specific point I was making that despite an opposite pacific to what we kinda expected, we might end up with a similar result in terms of the north american temp profile.  But I did also say that look is a problem because it can take a week or two to recover from that if we do torch our source regions like that.  

 

I am in 100% agreement with others that we likely still get a window in January.  But my pessimism is that our legit window for snowfall might be getting really narrow here.  Based on all the analogs I identified I fully expect the pattern to get rough for snowfall sometime in the second half of January and probably persist through February.  Unfortunately that is in incredibly strong consistent signal across weak nina and most cold neutral enso years.  So losing a week or two during the window climo says we had the best opportunity to snow is a big hit to our chances to overperform this season. 

 

There are goalposts to a winters potential and I used a formula to predict snowfall based on what I thought were the middle of those goalposts.  But of course the possibility to get the higher end of that range of possible outcomes is there and I am rooting for that.  Not seeing any legit high probability snowfall threats in the next 10 days and a possible moderation that would take us into January after makes me feel like our chances at overperforming expectations this winter is probably slipping away.  I am not saying we will get no snow, sorry if any of my posts came off that way.  We also could luck into something during the rough period.  We got a 2-4" snowfall in February 2018 during the middle of a horrible torch pattern when we got lucky with a trailing wave behind a pressing cold airmass.  But if we have no snow heading into January, and its likely we flip to a bad pattern by January 15-20th...our window to get much snow this winter is pretty small.  That's all I'm saying.  But this was expected...we knew this was not likely to be a good winter.  Things are about what I expected but maybe I was rooting to be pleasantly surprised.  

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Damn, can we just get a LITTLE snow to calm some nerves in here!? Haha. Besides PSU, CAPE, Heisy, and a handful of others providing some unbiased analysis and having some great discussions, it’s kind of a shitshow in here right now. Stormy’s always off his rocker but good lord haha. Everybody chill.

It’s December 14th for starters. We knew our ceiling would be low this winter. Patience is going to be required this winter - we ALL knew this going in. Let’s not act surprised about what PSU is saying. He’s not wrong. We may not LIKE what he has to say - as we all want a ton of snow (him included I’m sure) - but what’s the point of pretending like we’re in some epic +PDO Modoki niño and ignoring the facts? The man isn’t saying it won’t snow. We *could* get lucky and strike gold sure, but the historical data (plus our new base state) strongly argues that getting a good snowfall this winter will be like pulling teeth.

We’re not out of the game. Keep your expectations in check and you won’t be disappointed.

This 

[benjammin]

You’re right Raleigh is the new Atlanta.

Richmond is the new Raleigh. DC is the new Richmond...

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[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

How close are you to 50 inches?

Chill I'm at 4".  That crazy disparity between here and your area happened one time in the 20 years I've been up here.  Yes I will almost always get more snow but it's almost never 400% more like that.  That was a very rare one time type thing.  Now, if we start to see that kind of thing happening regularly during "good patterns" because the boundary temps just arent cold enough to support snow in lower elevations that would be a huge problem.  But so far to that extreme it's only happened once really ever.  

[TSSN+]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

How close are you to 50 inches?

Closer than you’ll ever be 

[AlexD1990]

I've had 10 warning criteria winter storms the last 8 years, and I am at 60 ft elevation on the central eastern shore. 'Our luck' hasn't been that bad.

This. Obviously it's location dependent, but I'm very much in a "chips fall" mode.

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