December Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m just stating probabilities based on past results in comparable situations.  There can be flukes within the normal variance. We have to hope for such a fluke. Because the probabilities are not in our favor this year. That’s all. 

PSU, you are very smart, and your analysis is solid, and unfortunately probably going to end up being correct, but your relentless, repetitive, passive aggressive pessimism is a downer.  

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I understand modeling is better than it used to be I been into this weather science since the blizzard of 79!! But.   Modeling still don't even get a handle on stuff till it's sometimes  within 48 hours . So.  Jumping off a cliff cause of long range modeling weeks out is just plain stupid lol

Our fate isn’t determined until inside 48 hours but this isn’t a both ways thing. There are way more permutations that result in no snow than snow for us. And because we are hyper vigilant pouring over ensembles and every obscure model run if there is a “threat” we will see it usually pretty far out. We won’t know the outcome of course. 

[WxUSAF]

Don’t hate the setup on the GGEM leading into Xmas…

[SnowenOutThere]

Don't think the Euro run is gonna look great with a far flatter western ridge

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Don't think the Euro run is gonna look great with a far flatter western ridge

Shocking 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

People are so bipolar in here when they see long range modeling lol.. I mean I can see why people get that way I mean long range modeling is soooo accurate   lmaoooooo. You people are too much.. you'd think you never tracked storms or  didn't know the models suck...  i mean come on people is this ur first time here???    Trusting Modeling weeks out  is like trusting my ex not to cheat lol.    U people are sad!!! Every 6 hours  the mood changes that change with model changes are unreal in here !! Lol   people that day omg winters over in December  musta  been the kind of kids who  quit playing games and fo home when they are losing 

OMG

Speaking badly about models and departing group adulation?  Thank the Lord NHC does not present 30 different outcomes every 12 hours. From Daytona to Galveston ground zero.  Need some more fact and outcome based discussions and pressure to bring about changes. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Our fate isn’t determined until inside 48 hours but this isn’t a both ways thing. There are way more permutations that result in no snow than snow for us. And because we are hyper vigilant pouring over ensembles and every obscure model run if there is a “threat” we will see it usually pretty far out. We won’t know the outcome of course. 

I agree but saying winters over in December is just  whiney lol

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

OMG

Speaking badly about models and departing group adulation?  Thank the Lord NHC does not present 30 different outcomes every 12 hours. From Daytona to Galveston ground zero.  Need some more fact and outcome based discussions and pressure to bring about changes. 

Respectfully how is that a fair comparison. NHC doesn’t even put out a long range hurricane track.  The official cone only goes to day 5 and sometimes it’s pretty wide at day 5.  We just don’t have the ability to be that accurate at those ranges. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I agree but saying winters over in December is just  whiney lol

Other than Ji who said winter’s over? 

[WEATHER53]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Respectfully how is that a fair comparison. NHC doesn’t even put out a long range hurricane track.  The official cone only goes to day 5 and sometimes it’s pretty wide at day 5.  We just don’t have the ability to be that accurate at those ranges. 

Self appointed comments  corrector 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Self appointed comments  corrector 

No it’s called dialogue. We have different points of view but the discussion doesn’t have to be hostile. I asked a legitimate good faith question. I’m not trying to trick you or trap you. But in honesty don’t see how a short range day 1-5 hurricane track and trying to predict long range day 10-15 or even longer patterns is a good comp.  You could explain your point of view. That’s how a discussion works. You don’t have to take every comment I make as if it’s some attack. 

[winter_warlock]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Other than Ji who said winter’s over? 

 Hmmm good point.. Ji is probably the only one but he says it alot lol seems like  more  lol

[Miss Pixee]

3 hours ago, 87storms said:

One of the bigger issues, at least in the 95 corridor, the last 10-15 years has been the lack of December snow.  We used to be able to wet our palette's with at least a close in 'burbs storm or two early in the season, but if you look at DCA stats there hasn't been a 2"+ snowfall since 2011...which is pretty bad and fully supports the idea that we're losing snow on the margins.  I guess the question is whether it's a decadal pattern issue or a long-term trend.

I'm a native Washingtonian and December has never been a snow month here in DC. Maybe different in other people's neck of the woods. Our window usually is Jan-Feb (and at times March).

 

So when people talk about a white Christmas I assume it's somewhere else in the area (like 100 miles or more).

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Other than Ji who said winter’s over? 

Me, as usual.

[Ji]

EPS seems to like 25/26th more than 21/22

[87storms]

42 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Me, as usual.

I'm not that far behind.  We're simply not good at snow anymore and that's just the reality of the situation.  Hoping we can at least have something to track soon.  That would be a step in the right direction.

[osfan24]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS seems to like 25/26th more than 21/22

It’s almost as if the can keeps getting kicked. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS....at least it is looking cold leading up to Christmas.

[Terpeast]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

EPS seems to like 25/26th more than 21/22

I don’t see that. 25/26 is more likely to cut n/w. Or maybe I just haven’t seen the new run yet

[87storms]

Just now, osfan24 said:

It’s almost as if the can keeps getting kicked. 

It does look kind of enticing, though.  Pretty stout HP nearby on both of the spotlight models.  Precip is generally easier than cold here.

[Ji]

I don’t see that. 25/26 is more likely to cut n/w. Or maybe I just haven’t seen the new run yet

My snowfall chart just seemed to have more hits in that window than 21-22

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

My snowfall chart just seemed to have more hits in that window than 21-22

Pretty underwhelming 

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It’s almost as if the can keeps getting kicked. 

No. The 25th time period was there for awhile with a second PNA spike. Just never shown much storm wise

[Ji]

Pretty underwhelming 

Sad gray chart

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Pretty underwhelming 

Even when it has 20” showing it is usually wrong anyway so whatever haha. Really just got to wait for something to pop up under day 5 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Even when it has 20” showing it is usually wrong anyway so whatever haha. Really just got to wait for something to pop up under day 5 

Kinda like last January. Twice. 

[TSSN+]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Kinda like last January. Twice. 

Ya idk how many times I’ve been in loads of snow from those charts and I end up with dirt lol

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

My snowfall chart just seemed to have more hits in that window than 21-22

The best snow is east. Charter a boat and drop anchor.

[CAPE]

Today's edition of the weeklies looks even colder for early Jan. Time a wave or 2 and we defeat historical weak Nino snow climo.

[CAPE]

That's the look we want in a Nina- shortwave energy can drop southward further west and have space to develop a surface low to our SW, instead of what we have now/over the next 10 days which is probably too far east.