December Medium/ Long Range

[psuhoffman]

Lastly, 1 of the 4 storms that ended up a big cold enso snowstorm was maybe the biggest surprise snow ever but 3/4 were storms many on here identified as legit threats well in advance. One was that WAG I got right from 10 days out in 2011.  But what all 4 had in common was a trough diving well to our southwest with an amplified wave digging into the TN valley to our southwest. 3/4 also featured a rarity for a Nino which was a mature STJ moisture feed to our southwest.  
 

If we see those things it’s ok to think this could be one of the exceptions. And the day 8-9 thing is way too far out to put to bed yet, but runs that show some NS dominant event with a SW that barely digs to our latitude and has to stall and bomb to get us don’t excite me.  We all know how those actually play out. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

Informative post, psu. I do think you underestimate how many people just want to see accumulating snow at this point, HECS or not

I predicted we will get snow this winter. Just not a lot and unlikely a big storm.  And I see posts that show us getting 1-3” saying “that would be frustrating” because it has northeast of us getting 20”.  That was what the impetus of my post was. For those that would be totally happy to get 1-2” of snow from a storm that crushes somewhere north or east of us with big snow they are being totally realistic and that’s healthy. Expecting is go get big snow then being upset when it hits the places climo favored in cold enso is not. That’s all. Everyone is different. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My advice is in a cold enso when we are tracking a major snowstorm at range...expect it to miss us to the north or east and to get a very minor event because that is what the probabilities say are by far the greatest odds...then be happy if it turns out to be the very rare fluke where we get a major event.  

Even in a warm enso our odds from range at a major threat being a BIG snow are below 50% but they are over double the chances in a cold enso.  

 

How would you feel if snow misses us to the south like in 2017-2018? The Capital Weather Gang even wrote an article back then that said something along the lines of "the number of southern cities that have more snow than DC this winter is embarassing".

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

How would you feel if snow misses us to the south like in 2017-2018? The Capital Weather Gang even wrote an article back then that said something along the lines of "the number of southern cities that have more snow than DC this winter is embarassing".

It happens. Snow can fall to the south of us too. Always has. If that stops occurring, we are truly fucked.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

How would you feel if snow misses us to the south like in 2017-2018? The Capital Weather Gang even wrote an article back then that said something along the lines of "the number of southern cities that have more snow than DC this winter is embarassing".

There was a storm that winter with a distribution similar to Boxing Day. It didn’t miss south as much as east. There were some minor events that missed south. But that’s also Nina climo. The worst negative snow anomaly is right over the DC Balt area in cold enso. You’re more likely to get more snow wrt average in every direction. 

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a storm that winter with a distribution similar to Boxing Day. It didn’t miss south as much as east. There were some minor events that missed south. But that’s also Nina climo. The worst negative snow anomaly is right over the DC Balt area in cold enso. You’re more likely to get more snow wrt average in every direction. 

Yeah, central NC did get that dusting last week and we (DMV area) are still waiting. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, central NC did get that dusting last week and we (DMV area) are still waiting. 

There is a bit of randomness to this thing of timing cold and moisture. Like I said, if our area is the farthest south snow is likely to ever fall, we won't being getting snow too often.

[midatlanticweather]

Now you see it ---- Now we don't! Still cold... but really nothing but cold

 

[Ji]

Horrible run. That random sw in south mucked up any chance for the ns to dig it seems

We miss out on precip from all e events

[pazzo83]

drought begets drought

[Daniel Boone]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Horrible run. That random sw in south mucked up any chance for the ns to dig it seems

We miss out on precip from all e events

Yeah, just posted in the Tn Valley sub what a terrible run it is. Totally destroys the Western Ridge. Could be adjusting to the MJO.

[TSSN+]

Hate this hobby. Wake me up when we have a threat inside 48hrs. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Hate this hobby. Wake me up when we have a threat inside 48hrs. 

See you tomorrow at 12z!

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

See you tomorrow at 12z!

I’m about 12 drinks in, I might not be up till 18z 

[psuhoffman]

If we don’t get any snow out of the next 2 weeks and the long range guidance isn’t out to lunch…we might be in trouble. This would take a while to recover from!  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we don’t get any snow out of the next 2 weeks and the long range guidance isn’t out to lunch…we might be in trouble. This would take a while to recover from!  

Well, you said the other analogs were cold in December and torched the rest of the way right? Lol And hey, this winter was already expected to be a ratter...if that happens it'll just be more of a shoulder shrug punt to the next (but still kinda annoying)

[TSSN+]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we don’t get any snow out of the next 2 weeks and the long range guidance isn’t out to lunch…we might be in trouble. This would take a while to recover from!  

Oh we are in trouble. Why I predicted like no snow this year in the contest lol 

[Weather Will]

At least Christmas Day is not a torch...WB 0Z EPS.

[BristowWx]

Less than fun 6z GFS run. You can see where things are headed toward the end as the pac air floods in.  Going back to sleep now and dream of better days. 

[87storms]

Less than fun 6z GFS run. You can see where things are headed toward the end as the pac air floods in.  Going back to sleep now and dream of better days. 

We are who we thought we were.

[clueless]

Ugly.  

[TSSN+]

49 minutes ago, 87storms said:

We are who we thought we were.

Shittin the blinds 

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Shittin the blinds 

Open them in 6 hours and it will be "now that's a beautiful pattern. Look at that blocking" lol

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, you said the other analogs were cold in December and torched the rest of the way right? Lol And hey, this winter was already expected to be a ratter...if that happens it'll just be more of a shoulder shrug punt to the next (but still kinda annoying)

You’ve come a long way!  

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Oh we are in trouble. Why I predicted like no snow this year in the contest lol 

The crazy thing is…as much as everyone thinks I’m a huge Deb, I’ve over predicted snow 5 of the last 6 years. Even when I went way below normal and predicted a total ratter like in 2023 I still said we would get like 3-5” and we got absolutely nothing!  In 2020 when I made that infamous “time of death” post on winter I said we would probably luck into a minor snowfall at some point but for all intents and purposes winter was cooked, but that was too optimistic we didn’t see another flake all winter!  As pessimistic as I’ve been I’ve not been pessimistic enough. I predict too much snow. Keep that in mind. It’s sobering!  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Less than fun 6z GFS run. You can see where things are headed toward the end as the pac air floods in.  Going back to sleep now and dream of better days. 

We're cooked.

[Benjamn3]

Fast forward to 6:30 tonight. “That looks great, look at that would ya look at it”. It’s a roller coaster in here. Lolol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Benjamn3 said:

Fast forward to 6:30 tonight. “That looks great, look at that would ya look at it”. It’s a roller coaster in here. Lolol

Not if you know what to ignore 

[Terpeast]

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The crazy thing is…as much as everyone thinks I’m a huge Deb, I’ve over predicted snow 5 of the last 6 years. Even when I went way below normal and predicted a total ratter like in 2023 I still said we would get like 3-5” and we got absolutely nothing!  In 2020 when I made that infamous “time of death” post on winter I said we would probably luck into a minor snowfall at some point but for all intents and purposes winter was cooked, but that was too optimistic we didn’t see another flake all winter!  As pessimistic as I’ve been I’ve not been pessimistic enough. I predict too much snow. Keep that in mind. It’s sobering!  

So are you officially calling “TOD 12/14/24” on this winter?

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So are you officially calling “TOD 12/14/24” on this winter?

Not yet but I don’t like what I see and if I had to bet if I bust high or low on snow I’d bet high. But there is still a way out. The AO isn’t quite as uncooperative right now as it was those two years. The reason for my early emphatic calls those years was if you get to Xmas and see a strongly positive AO combined with a strong central pac ridge and a pac torch encompassing the continent history says it’s game over. That combo never ends well.  Never. It’s too stable, supported by multiple factors, and takes too long to break down to save winter. By new years you can call it when you see that. It’s ova. 
 

There is still a way out this year. The pac ridge and AO are not as hostile. That pattern is ugly and would take weeks to recover but it could recover. The problem is history says our best chance of snow is actually December and early January. So if we get to Xmas and are staring a never ending pac puke torch in the face were probably in big trouble.