December Medium/ Long Range

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a storm that winter with a distribution similar to Boxing Day. It didn’t miss south as much as east. There were some minor events that missed south. But that’s also Nina climo. The worst negative snow anomaly is right over the DC Balt area in cold enso. You’re more likely to get more snow wrt average in every direction. 

Yeah, central NC did get that dusting last week and we (DMV area) are still waiting. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, central NC did get that dusting last week and we (DMV area) are still waiting. 

There is a bit of randomness to this thing of timing cold and moisture. Like I said, if our area is the farthest south snow is likely to ever fall, we won't being getting snow too often.

[midatlanticweather]

Now you see it ---- Now we don't! Still cold... but really nothing but cold

 

[Ji]

Horrible run. That random sw in south mucked up any chance for the ns to dig it seems

We miss out on precip from all e events

[pazzo83]

drought begets drought

[Daniel Boone]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Horrible run. That random sw in south mucked up any chance for the ns to dig it seems

We miss out on precip from all e events

Yeah, just posted in the Tn Valley sub what a terrible run it is. Totally destroys the Western Ridge. Could be adjusting to the MJO.

[TSSN+]

Hate this hobby. Wake me up when we have a threat inside 48hrs. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Hate this hobby. Wake me up when we have a threat inside 48hrs. 

See you tomorrow at 12z!

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

See you tomorrow at 12z!

I’m about 12 drinks in, I might not be up till 18z 

[psuhoffman]

If we don’t get any snow out of the next 2 weeks and the long range guidance isn’t out to lunch…we might be in trouble. This would take a while to recover from!  

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we don’t get any snow out of the next 2 weeks and the long range guidance isn’t out to lunch…we might be in trouble. This would take a while to recover from!  

Well, you said the other analogs were cold in December and torched the rest of the way right? Lol And hey, this winter was already expected to be a ratter...if that happens it'll just be more of a shoulder shrug punt to the next (but still kinda annoying)

[TSSN+]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we don’t get any snow out of the next 2 weeks and the long range guidance isn’t out to lunch…we might be in trouble. This would take a while to recover from!  

Oh we are in trouble. Why I predicted like no snow this year in the contest lol 

[Weather Will]

At least Christmas Day is not a torch...WB 0Z EPS.

[BristowWx]

Less than fun 6z GFS run. You can see where things are headed toward the end as the pac air floods in.  Going back to sleep now and dream of better days. 

[87storms]

Less than fun 6z GFS run. You can see where things are headed toward the end as the pac air floods in.  Going back to sleep now and dream of better days. 

We are who we thought we were.

[clueless]

Ugly.  

[TSSN+]

49 minutes ago, 87storms said:

We are who we thought we were.

Shittin the blinds 

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Shittin the blinds 

Open them in 6 hours and it will be "now that's a beautiful pattern. Look at that blocking" lol

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, you said the other analogs were cold in December and torched the rest of the way right? Lol And hey, this winter was already expected to be a ratter...if that happens it'll just be more of a shoulder shrug punt to the next (but still kinda annoying)

You’ve come a long way!  

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Oh we are in trouble. Why I predicted like no snow this year in the contest lol 

The crazy thing is…as much as everyone thinks I’m a huge Deb, I’ve over predicted snow 5 of the last 6 years. Even when I went way below normal and predicted a total ratter like in 2023 I still said we would get like 3-5” and we got absolutely nothing!  In 2020 when I made that infamous “time of death” post on winter I said we would probably luck into a minor snowfall at some point but for all intents and purposes winter was cooked, but that was too optimistic we didn’t see another flake all winter!  As pessimistic as I’ve been I’ve not been pessimistic enough. I predict too much snow. Keep that in mind. It’s sobering!  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Less than fun 6z GFS run. You can see where things are headed toward the end as the pac air floods in.  Going back to sleep now and dream of better days. 

We're cooked.

[Benjamn3]

Fast forward to 6:30 tonight. “That looks great, look at that would ya look at it”. It’s a roller coaster in here. Lolol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Benjamn3 said:

Fast forward to 6:30 tonight. “That looks great, look at that would ya look at it”. It’s a roller coaster in here. Lolol

Not if you know what to ignore 

[Terpeast]

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The crazy thing is…as much as everyone thinks I’m a huge Deb, I’ve over predicted snow 5 of the last 6 years. Even when I went way below normal and predicted a total ratter like in 2023 I still said we would get like 3-5” and we got absolutely nothing!  In 2020 when I made that infamous “time of death” post on winter I said we would probably luck into a minor snowfall at some point but for all intents and purposes winter was cooked, but that was too optimistic we didn’t see another flake all winter!  As pessimistic as I’ve been I’ve not been pessimistic enough. I predict too much snow. Keep that in mind. It’s sobering!  

So are you officially calling “TOD 12/14/24” on this winter?

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So are you officially calling “TOD 12/14/24” on this winter?

Not yet but I don’t like what I see and if I had to bet if I bust high or low on snow I’d bet high. But there is still a way out. The AO isn’t quite as uncooperative right now as it was those two years. The reason for my early emphatic calls those years was if you get to Xmas and see a strongly positive AO combined with a strong central pac ridge and a pac torch encompassing the continent history says it’s game over. That combo never ends well.  Never. It’s too stable, supported by multiple factors, and takes too long to break down to save winter. By new years you can call it when you see that. It’s ova. 
 

There is still a way out this year. The pac ridge and AO are not as hostile. That pattern is ugly and would take weeks to recover but it could recover. The problem is history says our best chance of snow is actually December and early January. So if we get to Xmas and are staring a never ending pac puke torch in the face were probably in big trouble. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but I don’t like what I see and if I had to bet if I bust high or low on snow I’d bet high. But there is still a way out. The AO isn’t quite as uncooperative right now as it was those two years. The reason for my early emphatic calls those years was if you get to Xmas and see a strongly positive AO combined with a strong central pac ridge and a pac torch encompassing the continent history says it’s game over. That combo never ends well.  Never. It’s too stable, supported by multiple factors, and takes too long to break down to save winter. By new years you can call it when you see that. It’s ova. 
 

There is still a way out this year. The pac ridge and AO are not as hostile. That pattern is ugly and would take weeks to recover but it could recover. The problem is history says our best chance of snow is actually December and early January. So if we get to Xmas and are staring a never ending pac puke torch in the face were probably in big trouble. 

I think we have one more shot at a wintry period sometime in Jan. Both ensembles have an EPAC WWB at the end of this month, and we’ll be crossing over into MJO 7 around the same time, and potentially 8 by mid-Jan. If the ensembles are correct about these, we should get a shot at some snow. Better than now because MC forcing wouldn’t be as unfavorable as it is now. 

But if we don’t produce in that next shot, we’re looking at another ratter because by Feb, the MJO probably is done with 8-1-2 or just reloads at 4.

I was also thinking that this is a one-and-done winter where we get one decent snowfall and then that’s it. If we do get that shot. 

[CAPE]

The extended products continue to advertise significant weakening/retrogression of the Nino-like NPAC trough by early Jan, to be replaced with +heights near the GoA and an EPO ridge, which is more of a Nina look. That should at least allow for continued cold shots, but without help in the NA wave timing will be critical to give us some shots at snow. We have had the cold, but with the progressive pattern it's been cold/dry followed by milder periods with precip, then more cold/dry.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The extended products continue to advertise significant weakening/retrogression of the Nino-like NPAC trough by early Jan, to be replaced with +heights near the GoA and an EPO ridge, which is more of a Nina look. That should at least allow for continued cold shots, but without help in the NA wave timing will be critical to give us some shots at snow. We have had the cold, but with the progressive pattern it's been cold/dry followed by milder periods with precip.

We might get a shot sometime in January but we have a tight window because Nina climo says that trough will retrograde as the month goes on and by late January the SER will take over and it’s pretty much game over.  It’s really bad luck that we got a Nino lag in December when Nina climo would be better and now are transitioning to a Nina pattern right as that forcing becomes hostile!  We got the worst of both worlds  

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

I was also thinking that this is a one-and-done winter where we get one decent snowfall and then that’s it. If we do get that shot. 

This was also my wag a while back over in the other sub I post at. Quiet thru early Jan then a one-off sorta 2016, tho probably not that extreme a storm, but one decent hit then a wrap.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We might get a shot sometime in January but we have a tight window because Nino climo says that trough will retrograde as the month goes on and by late January the SER will take over and it’s pretty much game over.  It’s really bad luck that we got a Nino lag in December when Nina climo would be better and now are transitioning to a Nina pattern right as that forcing becomes hostile!  We got the worst of both worlds  

 

In the end, just have to see how it plays out. If the -EPO is persistent there should still be chances into Feb. The SER can be flattened at times, and maybe we get lucky with a wave or 2 moving along the boundary. A couple moderate events would be a major victory in a weak Nina winter.