December Medium/ Long Range

[Kevin Reilly]

57 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

To much excitement and happiness in this group lady’s and gents. I’ll throw some buzz words to keep away the evil. Torch. S.E Ridge. Dry slot. Underperform. Can kick…There that should do the trick. 

Let me add a phrase... "No cold high up north".

[stormy]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's an h5 snapshot from an ensemble mean for a specific time on a single day. The longwave pattern phase isn't stationary.

I understand that the chart is only a snapshot in time, but  folks new to this hobby need to understand that we usually do better with a trough axis to our west (Ohio Valley).

Case in point, the 18z GFS drops a 2 - 5 inch swath of snow across Virginia on Dec. 9 with a weak trough axis back over the western Ohio Valley.

Thanks Cape

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, stormy said:

I understand that the chart is only a snapshot in time, but  folks new to this hobby need to understand that we usually do better with a trough axis to our west (Ohio Valley).

Case in point, the 18z GFS drops a 2 - 5 inch swath of snow across Virginia on Dec. 9 with a weak trough axis back over the western Ohio Valley.

Thanks Cape

The western US ridge and the downstream trough orientation/axis have been discussed. The big picture as advertised on guidance is a pattern that can deliver anomalous cold. Plenty to nitpick should you choose to do so. Might end up cold and dry- that is a 'risk'. As I said in at least one post, it will probably take a significant NS shortwave to get a surface low to develop far enough south(and west) for the MA to cash in. A higher amplitude ridge with an axis further west would help to facilitate this.

[Weather Will]

Thanksgiving week WB 6Z EURO:

light showers east of the mountains Tuesday am. 

Rainy Thursday tapering off west to east in the afternoon to evening.  Nice soaker...

Cold, but dry settles in for the weekend.

Wishing you and your families a healthy and happy Thanksgiving!