December Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

Need to see a stronger overall signal on the ensembles over the next few cycles. GEFS is the closest right now with a handful of hits and near hits.

[Ji]

Carolina’s stole our snow that we stole from nj

[winter_warlock]

06z GEFS ensembles  brings storm up coast

 

[Terpeast]

If canada is gonna torch, I rather it be NW canada than SE canada 

[Terpeast]

Ensembles show signs of aleutian low retrograding at the end of their runs, bringing more cold air back into our source regions (it’ll get mild locally for a bit)

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

06z GEFS ensembles  brings storm up coast

 

What's being depicted there is the 19-20th event that is a rainstorm on all the op runs. The energy dropping in behind with colder air coming in is the one to keep an eye on. Precip from that looks light/offshore for the most part on the means.

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What's being depicted there is the 19-20th event that is a rainstorm on all the op runs. The energy dropping in behind with colder air coming in is the one to keep an eye on. Precip from that looks light/offshore for the most part on the means.

Doesn't matter anyhow. Its 6-7 days out so it will change lol

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I certainly get why it is disturbing to see the eastern CONUS warm in that scenario, but isn't it expected for a strong -EPO to torch our source regions, with the huge ridge there and all?  Again I'm not saying that it is not an ugly look, but I would not necessarily have keyed on the warmth in NW Canada.

 

37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If canada is gonna torch, I rather it be NW canada than SE canada 

The thermal distribution isn’t the issue. That’s general profile is what to expect with a strong -EPO. The issue is the degree of the anomaly. It’s ok if western and central Canada are +3 or +5 but when it’s +10 or more we’ve seen recently that even when we get a favorable long wave configuration the air masses here just aren’t cold enough because our source regions are torched.  Southeast Canada isn’t super warm yet but roll that day 15 forward 5 days and it would be. 
 

it’s way too far out to worry about the specifics I was just trying to point out that we’ve blamed the hostile pac of the last 8 years for our source regions being torched several times. But there we have the opposite pacific long wave pattern and it’s a similar result. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

it’s way too far out to worry about the specifics I was just trying to point out that we’ve blamed the hostile pac of the last 8 years for our source regions being torched several times. But there we have the opposite pacific long wave pattern and it’s a similar result. 

Well, its December and an el nino longwave pattern for Decembers tend to be warm.

i just hope that the mid-lat atmosphere doesn’t flip Nina in January and maintains a torch pattern the rest of the winter. That’s the worst case scenario

[WxUSAF]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ensembles show signs of aleutian low retrograding at the end of their runs, bringing more cold air back into our source regions (it’ll get mild locally for a bit)

So far this month, it’s the torch that’s been getting cankicked. Guidance has repeatedly been adjusting colder at shorter lead times for the eastern conus with more -EPO and less of that rollover ridge. 

 

[Bob Chill]

29 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Well, its December and an el nino longwave pattern for Decembers tend to be warm.

i just hope that the mid-lat atmosphere doesn’t flip Nina in January and maintains a torch pattern the rest of the winter. That’s the worst case scenario

Just spitballin but nino hangover is making things muddy imo. We need to work through the tug of war before worrying much beyond that. I personally expected Dec to provide few chances for snow. Really hard here for early season northern stream stuff in any enso setup. That said, we've had the ingredients flying around already and guidance says that isn't changing yet. Get enough chances and you can stumble drunk into something if you try hard enough lol. 

Imho, Jan will feature a "hammer period" with cold and snow but it will primarily be NS driven (stating obvious) so my gut says a chaotic take what you can get versus tracking an actual big storm pattern. 

So far things have been moving along pretty close to what I was thinking in the fall. 

[winter_warlock]

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just spitballin but nino hangover is making things muddy imo. We need to work through the tug of war before worrying much beyond that. I personally expected Dec to provide few chances for snow. Really hard here for early season northern stream stuff in any enso setup. That said, we've had the ingredients flying around already and guidance says that isn't changing yet. Get enough chances and you can stumble drunk into something if you try hard enough lol. 

Imho, Jan will feature a "hammer period" with cold and snow but it will primarily be NS driven (stating obvious) so my gut says a chaotic take what you can get versus tracking an actual big storm pattern. 

So far things have been moving along pretty close to what I was thinking in the fall. 

Ok stupid question. What u mean by NS driven?

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Ok stupid question. What u mean by NS driven?

NS = Northern stream

Meaning that he doesn't expect much southern stream involvement like energy ejecting out of the SW region. Instead, clippers and little impulses in the northern stream - and getting them to dig and time up to pass south of our latitude (hopefully). 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

NS = Northern stream

Meaning that he doesn't expect much southern stream involvement like energy ejecting out of the SW region. Instead, clippers and little impulses in the northern stream - and getting them to dig and time up to pass south of our latitude (hopefully). 

 Ahh  ok ty bro!!

[winter_warlock]

06z euro Ai.     Has storm off shore.  Not bad for  7 days out!!

[WxUSAF]

BamWx referencing 93-94 as an analog for late month and January now. We need an Elmo face planting into “sugar” reaction…

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

BamWx referencing 93-94 as an analog for late month and January now. We need an Elmo face planting into “sugar” reaction…

[Interstate]

27 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

06z euro Ai.     Has storm off shore.  Not bad for  7 days out!!

It is always the GL low that ruins everything for us.

[Terpeast]

Really not a fan of 93-94. We may have gotten a lot of record cold, but it really isn't a snowy pattern. Lots of mixed precip/ice with the baroclinic boundary more inland.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Really not a fan of 93-94. We may have gotten a lot of record cold, but it really isn't a snowy pattern. Lots of mixed precip/ice with the baroclinic boundary more inland.

Think I had 3 full days of school in January 94. My kids would approve.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Think I had 3 full days of school in January 94. My kids would approve.

Yeah I was out of school a lot, but hurt myself falling on ice. 

Either way I don’t see this happening. Replay it now, precip will mostly be rain.

Early-mid January could go either way… if the pac jet lets up a bit and allows the aleutian low to retrograde, we could get 2 week of cold. But if the trough sticks itself over AK, we torch like 2023. 

[anotherman]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I was out of school a lot, but hurt myself falling on ice. 

Either way I don’t see this happening. Replay it now, precip will mostly be rain.

Early-mid January could go either way… if the pac jet lets up a bit and allows the aleutian low to retrograde, we could get 2 week of cold. But if the trough sticks itself over AK, we torch like 2023. 

Winter '93-94 was epic in PA.  Was my freshman year at PSU-Altoona.  Some of the most crazy cold weather I've ever experienced.

[Chris78]

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I was out of school a lot, but hurt myself falling on ice. 

Either way I don’t see this happening. Replay it now, precip will mostly be rain.

Early-mid January could go either way… if the pac jet lets up a bit and allows the aleutian low to retrograde, we could get 2 week of cold. But if the trough sticks itself over AK, we torch like 2023. 

My sister broke her arm that winter ice skating in our back yard lol.

 

Ice on top of snow on top of ice. Continously cycle.

[kdskidoo]

24 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Winter '93-94 was epic in PA.  Was my freshman year at PSU-Altoona.  Some of the most crazy cold weather I've ever experienced.

yeah epic is the word.   we had 14" snow on the 17th followed by 3 consecutive below zero nights.  -18 on the 19th, -14 on the 20th and the coldest temp I have ever experienced of -32 on the 21st.  and yes those are F temps.  I remember it well because we had just purchased replacement windows and the guy called the morning of the 21st to see if it was ok to come and replace them. 

[Paleocene]

OP GFS showing a big ole cold HP punch coming after the 19th-21st rain mess.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Paleocene said:

OP GFS showing a big ole cold HP punch coming after the 19th-21st rain mess.

Hopefully. The cold precedes  a storm

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Think I had 3 full days of school in January 94. My kids would approve.

Because Zoom didn't exist in 1994

[winter_warlock]

 This is looking  better ( colder) than 06z. In my opinion .. much deeper tough!!

[winter_warlock]

 Wow!! A 510 thickness over Tennessee 

[Shad]

what a pattern on the GFS....somebody will definitely be shoveling if that verifies