December Medium/ Long Range

[WesternFringe]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Clean almost WSW event Day 9. Everyone happy. 
 

 

It’s gonna snow y’all!

[Weather Will]

12Z AI went poof....really just need to watch the ensembles through this weekend.  

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z AI went poof....really just need to watch the ensembles through this weekend.  

Didn’t go poof. Just isn’t as developed.

 

[Weather Will]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Didn’t go poof. Just isn’t as developed.

 

It is a fish storm this run...

[LeesburgWx]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It is a fish storm this run...

Trending the wrong direction...

[Ji]

weatherwill thinks if a model dosent have the exact storm 30 runs in a row....that it went poof

[stormy]

Everybody needs to chill out and wait for 18z and 00z.

THIS IS A FLUKE...................................

[CAPE]

poof.. fish storm...trending

lol this place.

Been super busy with work. A nice break from weather geekdom. Refreshing.

[jayyy]

weatherwill thinks if a model dosent have the exact storm 30 runs in a row....that it went poof

You’ve been known to do the same from time to time. You also cancelled winter like 5 days ago lol

Love ya Ji


.

[jayyy]

Also, everyone stop uttering the words B__ D__ in here. What the phuck is wrong with yall

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Good to know the context even though it's annoying, smh So we actually DON'T wanna see something wound up...don't bet against history!

But I am curious...is there a particular reason WHY it happened like that during those years? (Something with the cold neutral enso state that favored that kind of storm track?). The usual NS interference or something else?

We are the furthest southwest of all the major eastern zones affected by HECS storms. Since these storms generally move SW to NE that means we need a storm to develop faster and further west. Everything about cold enso is worse for that. Weaker STJ so storms are less likely to approach with an already developed mature feed to our south. Dominant NS so more chances for there to be the need for stream interaction that can slow down or complicate development. Or a NS dominant wave that simply tracks north or develops too late as it moves east without enough STJ.
 

Really we need an STJ dominant storm to get an HECS here. History shows they NS dominant waves just won’t develop in time for us to her more than low to moderate level snowstorms. 
 

In a Nino with blocking our geographic location can be a positive. We can even get storms that track far enough west to be a problem for the immediate cost to our northeast. Or we can get STJ events that peak early or can’t climb due to blocking. In a +PDO Nino the greatest snow anomalies are over us. The opposite is true in cold enso.
 

This doesn’t mean we can’t get an HECS.  Nothing is impossible.  But in a cold enso Philly northeast is favored and we miss most of them and it’s not a fluke it’s climo. 

[WEATHER53]

We know all too well how the biggies  turn out as we get within 24-72 hours 

The only manner that works for us now is the rare  Miller A. Phase jobs and transfers always had poor results around here yet snowstorms are constantly forecasted from them. They don’t occur. Let’s hope we can get a modest organized rain storm from Atlanta that moves northeast  into cold air over us.  That does work 

[midatlanticweather]

swapping a high where a low was at 12z! LOL

 

[Ji]

swapping a high where a low was at 12z! LOL
 

I have two markers before taking a storm seriously

192 hours
120 hours

Most storms don’t make it to 192
And those that do don’t make it to 120

At least not the snow part

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

45 minutes ago, jayyy said:

You’ve been known to do the same from time to time. You also cancelled winter like 5 days  MONTHS ago lol

Love ya Ji


.

FYP!!

 

42 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Also, everyone stop uttering the words B__ D__ in here. What the phuck is wrong with yall

Big Di*k?  Big Dog?  Birth Date?  Bull Durham?  A holiday celebrated in Great Britain the day after Christmas??  Don't know at all what you mean!!!

[87storms]

I have two markers before taking a storm seriously

192 hours
120 hours

Most storms don’t make it to 192
And those that do don’t make it to 120

At least not the snow part

I prefer 24 hrs until about -40 hrs (by then i typically want my basketball courts back). >24 hrs is for the culture.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I prefer 24 hrs until about -40 hrs (by then i typically want my basketball courts back). >24 hrs is for the culture.

Wait what about the basketball courts? Lol

[stormy]

If LP had been dominant along the East Coast for the last 6 months, I would have paid more attention to the 12z GFS.   It has been just the opposite!!!! That's why I called it a fluke.

The 12z was whistling Dixie.

 

[winter_warlock]

 This isn't bad for 8 to 9 days out...

 

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 This isn't bad for 8 to 9 days out...

 

Unfortunately as it's shown there's nothing good about the set up. It's cold chasing warm rain again.

I'm  more interested in,  can we get a  SW to dig underneath us after the cold air is established prior to it lifting out and moderating. Here's 2m and 850 temps out ahead of the storm.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Unfortunately as it's shown there's nothing good about the set up. It's cold chasing warm rain again.

I'm  more interested in,  can we get a  SW to dig underneath us after the cold air is established prior to it lifting out and moderating. Here's 2m and 850 temps out ahead of the storm.

 

+12, now that’s a torch.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

+12, now that’s a torch.

Merry Christmas to all

[Solution Man]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Merry Christmas to all

We know how we roll round these parts

[87storms]

Wait what about the basketball courts? Lol

When they’re snow covered, I get antsy. I prob should belong to a gym, but there’s not many around here with courts and i already get gym access (without courts) at home and work.

[BristowWx]

14 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We know how we roll round these parts

You see a 1052 high creeping in from the plains 5 days before Christmas and you think now that’s a step in the right direction…you’d think that

[Scraff]

I feel like the last few days the band is finally back together here. Need a ton of practice though. Probably some beer too. Not sure we’re sounding great, but damn those dreams of making it big are still alive and well! 

PS—Damn right. Of course there is beer involved in my posts! Do you even know me!? I can’t even. Oh. And this is the Scraff AI model just so you’re in the loop. Sort of Euro, but mostly American. And my verification scores…..mmmm….not great. 

[Weather Will]

Disappointed that I let myself get sucked in by the global models which are not worth a grain of salt outside 5 days.  I will only post ensembles outside 5 days moving forward. Too much hype and false hope otherwise....

[Dabuckeyes]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Disappointed that I let myself get sucked in by the global models which are not worth a grain of salt outside 5 days.  I will only post ensembles outside 5 days moving forward. Too much hype and false hope otherwise....

You gotta watch out for those WB models, they’ll get ya. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS....20% chance of a White Christmas...

[rjvanals]

18z Euro says Sunday is still worth watching especially for N/W of 95