December Medium/ Long Range

[aldie 22]

I'll take my 1-3" and be happy

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

I'll take my 1-3" and be happy

Story of your life. 

[Chris78]

15 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

The GFS hates us lol

I might lose it if it went down like that lol. 

 

[CAPE]

Gotta love the GFS at range. It has been advertising some whacky outcomes for that period recently.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I might lose it if it went down like that lol. 

 

I’d lay out on the street 

[MillvilleWx]

I’ll take the under on the 12z GFS outcome of Boxing Day 2: Electric Bugaloo 

[Benjamn3]

I’m just glad it’s not 59 lol. Y’all getting crazy asking for snow Xmas week. 

[Alfoman]

12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'll take my 1-3" and be happy

You sound like my wife

[LeesburgWx]

28 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

The GFS hates us lol

I would quit this damn hobby for life if this happened verbatim

[hstorm]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’ll take the under on the 12z GFS outcome of Boxing Day 2: Electric Bugaloo 

Under for us . . . over for Atlantic City. 

[mattie g]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You don’t think jersey’s getting a 4 footer?? Bold call

Places in Jersey got 30"+ in 2010. At that point, what's another foot between friends?

Seriously though...how the GFS comes together is a little different than I recall Boxing Day. Wasn't that a Miller B that redeveloped a tad too far northeast? Maybe not and I'm just refusing the remember it clearly because we drove home from South Jersey that f'ing morning, leaving like 15-18" of wind-whipped snow behind us. It flurried on the ride home though, so I guess that was cool.

Seems like the GFS has been wanting to develop something just off the coast in the same general timeframe for a while now, so I guess we just keep an eye out and hope that the next 35 runs snow on us.

[cbmclean]

36 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

You know what they say about Nina's and beaches and the Carolinas? Well at least what that one dumbass says anyway 

Snow weenies in Wilson NC approve.  Of course I am scheduled in to be in NC mountains for Xmas.  In the very unlikely even that this were to ever happen, I might have to think about telling the wife to go ahead to her parents and me and the kids will stay home 

[midatlanticweather]

Maybe the AI was onto something??? LOL! What a crazy run! 

 

 

[aldie 22]

23 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Story of your life. 

I put the bait on the line and knew you would bite it

[NorthArlington101]

20 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Long shot for sure but still eyeing 12/15-16 for our western zones. As has been pointed out there is a nice strong HP that is progged to run away, but several ens, especially the GEPS members (which I personally think are solid enough) keep it a little mixy/snowy for the I-81 corridor and west

This continues to trend snowier - check the 12z EURO. I doubt this can get interesting for the metro but could allow favored spots to pad stats. 

[LeesburgWx]

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Maybe the AI was onto something??? LOL! What a crazy run! 

 

 

We know we can't deny AI

[rjvanals]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This continues to trend snowier - check the 12z EURO. I doubt this can get interesting for the metro but could allow favored spots to pad stats. 

Euro actually is kind of close for Sunday for a brief period of front end snow even into the metros 

[WxUSAF]

Ok euro, I see you. Its not 5 feet, but I’ll take it 

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

One good thing for next weekend is the trend on the ensembles over the last 24hours for less northern stream involvement to muck it up. 

12z GEFS very much continuing this

[rjvanals]

Euro looks good for the 21st 

[NorthArlington101]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ok euro, I see you. Its not 5 feet, but I’ll take it 

Clean almost WSW event Day 9. Everyone happy. 
 

 

[rjvanals]

Interesting that both the Euro and GFS agree on a storm being off Cape Hatteras 12/21-12/22

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

You don’t think jersey’s getting a 4 footer?? Bold call

Cmon, you know those drones over NJ are controlling the weather and causing this 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@CAPE Nina beach blizzard warning 

lol holy shit it’s a Boxing Day 2010 redux 

Obviously it’s way too far out to worry about specific Synoptics yet. But since 2000 there have been 6 cold enso HECS level storms and every one of them missed us east like that. So if we do get a HECS storm this winter it’s highly likely to miss us exactly like that. It’s not a fluke. It’s cold enso climo. 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ok euro, I see you. Its not 5 feet, but I’ll take it 

A more progressive wave is a much more realistic way for us to get a snowstorm. 

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A more progressive wave is a much more realistic way for us to get a snowstorm. 

Looks like the gefs agrees with you - more members show the euro progression than a big bomb off the coast regarding snow for us.

[brooklynwx99]

near ideal ridge axis for a coastal storm. right over ID/MT into western Canada

[winter_warlock]

41 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Clean almost WSW event Day 9. Everyone happy. 
 

 

    Thst would be  above normal snow for the month of December  from 1 storm for alot of us lol

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Obviously it’s way too far out to worry about specific Synoptics yet. But since 2000 there have been 6 cold enso HECS level storms and every one of them missed us east like that. So if we do get a HECS storm this winter it’s highly likely to miss us exactly like that. It’s not a fluke. It’s cold enso climo. 

Good to know the context even though it's annoying, smh So we actually DON'T wanna see something wound up...don't bet against history!

But I am curious...is there a particular reason WHY it happened like that during those years? (Something with the cold neutral enso state that favored that kind of storm track?). The usual NS interference or something else?

[Ji]

my eps snowchart loooks like crap