December Medium/ Long Range

[snowmagnet]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

give me the euro and lets call it a winter

Ha!  How quickly you forget Jan 2016.  Even the blizzard wasn't enough for you that winter!  

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS...dreaming of a white Christmas....

 

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS...dreaming of a white Christmas....

Well, not sure how great the GEFS is considering it has me at 7 inches of snow by Friday

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS...dreaming of a white Christmas....

 

What’s funny is that 95% of that snow is from tomorrow’s non-event. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What’s funny is that 95% of that snow is from tomorrow’s non-event. 

The Nam has been steady in advertising at least an hour of flakes at the tail end. 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The Nam has been steady in advertising at least an hour of flakes at the tail end. 

I’m willing to buy that…. just amazing that the GEFS can’t handle this event and ones like it. I’d guess it’s a combination of its low-resolution and this just being a genuine area of weakness for it. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What’s funny is that 95% of that snow is from tomorrow’s non-event. 

There is no signal on that run for snow within 4 days of Xmas.

[Chris78]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m willing to buy that…. just amazing that the GEFS can’t handle this event and ones like it. I’d guess it’s a combination of its low-resolution and this just being a genuine area of weakness for it. 

Speak for yourself. I'm waxing my shovel for the 5 " of snow the GEFS says I'm getting tomorrow night.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Speak for yourself. I'm waxing my shovel for the 5 " of snow the GEFS says I'm getting tomorrow night.

[Chris78]

17 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

How'd you get a copy of my ring camera? 

[Deck Pic]

we're kind of due.  There hasn't been a good december storm in 15 years.

4-8" storm after Christmas

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

we're kind of due.  There hasn't been a good december storm in 15 years.

4-8" storm after Christmas

Ah but I counter with the snowstorm of November 2018. First time DCA had measurable snow in November since 1996.

[psuhoffman]

13 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

In a nina or cold neutral, you kinda have to root for a +tnh pattern in general unless a real blocky winter pattern shows up.  That's why I've been aligned with the idea since fall. It's not just temps, it's prob the best way this season to get anything in the NS to track under us or at least approach from the south.  95-96 is not walkin in the door imho so the next best way to keep the SE ridge or any semblance of such out of our faces is getting it smashed down by a progressive -epo/+tnh longwave pattern. In some ways, it's a best case scenario in a winter that is highly unlikely to overperform. I don't think anyone is expecting anything close to a big winter. We just want to drink a little sweet lemonade instead of other yellow beverages that keep getting served lol

 

Oh I totally agree. That’s why our goalposts are realistically between a near total dud to best case a slightly below avg year across the area.   But some were rooting for an EPO driven pattern even last year in a Nino. 
 

I was just pointing out if we ever want a HECS or a truly snowy winter (say widespread 30”+ across the area) an EPO or TNH driven pattern is not most likely to be the way to get it.  IMO we need to hope once the PDO flips the temps across NAM can return to a status quo that allows blocking to work again. 

[TSSN+]

Be nice if the models could show a snow solution for more than a run before going back to total garbage. 

[stormy]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Be nice if the models could show a snow solution for more than a run before going back to total garbage. 

As the resolution improves the likelihood of your desire declines.

[Weather Will]

Experts can tell me why I am wrong, but our one shot of snow before Christmas is about at Day 11...WB 0Z 0Z EURO AI.

 

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Experts can tell me why I am wrong, but our one shot of snow before Christmas is about at Day 11...WB 0Z 0Z EURO AI.

 

I don't think you are wrong its just pre-Christmas snow is too magical and mythical for most of us to even hope for.  Rain and 55 sure...snow?  nah.  I'm in!

[CAPE]

Latest EPS and GEFS are hinting at a storm for that window. Something to keep an eye on. Doesn't look particular cold at this point and given the advertised h5 look it could end up offshore.

[Interstate]

7 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Be nice if the models could show a snow solution for more than a run before going back to total garbage. 

Hahaha. You asking for something that most of the cannot predict 4 days out, to predict 10+ days. 

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

Hahaha. You asking for something that most of the cannot predict 4 days out, to predict 10+ days. 

10+ days? I’m talking about even day 3-5 lol 

[midatlanticweather]

Serious question. A while back I felt the Euro was super strong in long range forecasting. When it showed stuff I felt pretty confident. Now both GFS and Euro seem less capable in the long range. Is this perception or real? Is it because we want much more specifics? It may be that the patterns I remember were easier to predict and the chaos the last several years have caused less confidence. Am I wrong? Probably. Short range, models have really gotten much better.. I think. Get to 5+ days and it is so inconsistent you can't rely on what we see at all.. Again, maybe it is due to so much recent instability 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Bam!  Kick it up a notch 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866853581904839101?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the overnight Euro is insistent on no Christmas torch.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the overnight Euro is insistent on no Christmas torch.

warm/wet, cold/dry?

[87storms]

GFS still shows some mischief around the 20th.

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the overnight Euro is insistent on no Christmas torch.

No one was, low/mid 50s is not a torch.

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

No one was, low/mid 50s is not a torch.

Low/mid 50s is what is considered a "torch" for the winter time, though. But perhaps this time around we're looking at something in the 40s neighborhood or lower.

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Low/mid 50s is what is considered a "torch" for the winter time, though. But perhaps this time around we're looking at something in the 40s neighborhood or lower.

DCA average high for Christmas is 47, Accuweather's current forecast gives a high of 51 for that day so +4.

A torch would be more like today where the high is 62 compared to the average of 50, which is +12.

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Serious question. A while back I felt the Euro was super strong in long range forecasting. When it showed stuff I felt pretty confident. Now both GFS and Euro seem less capable in the long range. Is this perception or real? Is it because we want much more specifics? It may be that the patterns I remember were easier to predict and the chaos the last several years have caused less confidence. Am I wrong? Probably. Short range, models have really gotten much better.. I think. Get to 5+ days and it is so inconsistent you can't rely on what we see at all.. Again, maybe it is due to so much recent instability 

I think we just have higher expectations in the 6-10, 11-15 day range whereas we used to only look out to 5-7 days. I think the models today are better than even the euro used to be, but the lead times have gotten much longer. 

[Ji]

dr was close