cbmclean Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Got to get the MJO out of Phase 6....hopefully by the end of the year.... The one that verifies will be the one that loops backwards through 4 -5 -6 again... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 41 minutes ago, cbmclean said: The one that verifies will be the one that loops backwards through 4 -5 -6 again... Obviously, you're kidding but although the phase speed is slowing due to interference from La Niña conditions the magic land of phase 7 is still expected to be reached in early January according to the NOAA CPC Weekly MJO Update that was posted here yesterday by Eskimo Joe and hinted at by WxUSA and with it chances of measurable snow. Hopefully, we'll luck into something before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 20 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It’s also worth pointing out that some have transitioned to rooting for EPO driven cold patterns because lately our more classical ways to snow have failed due to not being cold enough. But this last week was an example of the issue with that. EPO driven patterns are often dry when it’s cold. 2014 and 2015 were anomalies not normal. In a nina or cold neutral, you kinda have to root for a +tnh pattern in general unless a real blocky winter pattern shows up. That's why I've been aligned with the idea since fall. It's not just temps, it's prob the best way this season to get anything in the NS to track under us or at least approach from the south. 95-96 is not walkin in the door imho so the next best way to keep the SE ridge or any semblance of such out of our faces is getting it smashed down by a progressive -epo/+tnh longwave pattern. In some ways, it's a best case scenario in a winter that is highly unlikely to overperform. I don't think anyone is expecting anything close to a big winter. We just want to drink a little sweet lemonade instead of other yellow beverages that keep getting served lol 11 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 6 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Yes we know its going to rain thank u... u keep posting the same rain crap every day lol I appreciate the rain updates. I actually started a thread a couple years ago for tracking winter rain. I find rain interesting so please don't discouraged anyone from posting anything weather related. The GFS looks like it took our Sunday rain away or decreased it as the storm tracks to our NW. It has a heavy band of snow move across the area north of 70 tomorrow night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: In a nina or cold neutral, you kinda have to root for a +tnh pattern in general unless a real blocky winter pattern shows up. That's why I've been aligned with the idea since fall. It's not just temps, it's prob the best way this season to get anything in the NS to track under us or at least approach from the south. 95-96 is not walkin in the door imho so the next best way to keep the SE ridge or any semblance of such out of our faces is getting it smashed down by a progressive -epo/+tnh longwave pattern. In some ways, it's a best case scenario in a winter that is highly unlikely to overperform. I don't think anyone is expecting anything close to a big winter. We just want to drink a little sweet lemonade instead of other yellow beverages that keep getting served lol Exactly! Absolutely right on Point with everything Bob !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 GEFS (and the GFS too) is such garbage in the short range, especially with the rain-to-snow. If half of us get 1” tomorrow, I’ll buy everyone here a drink. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 5 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Let’s get the party started. Merry warmist SMH you can bet the bank this is the sumbitch that will verify 15 days out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Euro for the win. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Euro for the win. Lol So you're going to make everyone go look,huh? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range.... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 2 hours ago, dallen7908 said: Obviously, you're kidding but although the phase speed is slowing due to interference from La Niña conditions the magic land of phase 7 is still expected to be reached in early January according to the NOAA CPC Weekly MJO Update that was posted here yesterday by Eskimo Joe and hinted at by WxUSA and with it chances of measurable snow. Hopefully, we'll luck into something before then. As a side note, if one looks closely at the ensemble MJO forecasts, it seems like there are often one or two members that go backwards. I remember reading somewhere that NWP models often not infrequently predict the MJO to go backward, but it almost never happens. That goes into the "I wonder why they can't fix that" file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 give me the euro and lets call it a winter 1 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range.... @brooklynwx99 You mentioned the solstice window. I'm sure this will lock in, right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS (and the GFS too) is such garbage in the short range, especially with the rain-to-snow. If half of us get 1” tomorrow, I’ll buy everyone here a drink. Start a thread! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 euro ensembles seemed to have gotten colder for Dec 18-23 window 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 57 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range.... JB messed with that Run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Just now, Daniel Boone said: JB messed with that Run. He's hacking into the ECMWF, taking over BAMWx's twitter feed. The man is out of control. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: So you're going to make everyone go look,huh? Things like that always weaken the resolve to not look, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, Ji said: give me the euro and lets call it a winter Amen brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Concerning the Euro around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Meh need the euro to dig more. Don’t like the bullseye up in NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 9 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Meh need the euro to dig more. Don’t like the bullseye up in NE PA lol don’t worry it will be in Michigan next run 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Things like that always weaken the resolve to not look, lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 It is never good when you see a L in the Great Lakes region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 It is never good when you see a L in the Great Lakes region.Thanks Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Gfs kinda has the euro system 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range.... Yea right lol let's see it for 8 runs before I believe this nonsense. I will check back in on Saturday with the Euro. It will change 8 times by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Little interesting look on the GFS.... wonky! Sure that goes different later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 23 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Little interesting look on the GFS.... wonky! Sure that goes different later. Ya what a weird run. Multiple passes with snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Well there are definitely some interesting takes being throw around by the operationals at range. I just have trouble convincing myself that the thermals will be recovered enough by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now