Daniel Boone Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: In a nina or cold neutral, you kinda have to root for a +tnh pattern in general unless a real blocky winter pattern shows up. That's why I've been aligned with the idea since fall. It's not just temps, it's prob the best way this season to get anything in the NS to track under us or at least approach from the south. 95-96 is not walkin in the door imho so the next best way to keep the SE ridge or any semblance of such out of our faces is getting it smashed down by a progressive -epo/+tnh longwave pattern. In some ways, it's a best case scenario in a winter that is highly unlikely to overperform. I don't think anyone is expecting anything close to a big winter. We just want to drink a little sweet lemonade instead of other yellow beverages that keep getting served lol Exactly! Absolutely right on Point with everything Bob !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 GEFS (and the GFS too) is such garbage in the short range, especially with the rain-to-snow. If half of us get 1” tomorrow, I’ll buy everyone here a drink. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 5 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Let’s get the party started. Merry warmist SMH you can bet the bank this is the sumbitch that will verify 15 days out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 Euro for the win. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Euro for the win. Lol So you're going to make everyone go look,huh? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range.... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 2 hours ago, dallen7908 said: Obviously, you're kidding but although the phase speed is slowing due to interference from La Niña conditions the magic land of phase 7 is still expected to be reached in early January according to the NOAA CPC Weekly MJO Update that was posted here yesterday by Eskimo Joe and hinted at by WxUSA and with it chances of measurable snow. Hopefully, we'll luck into something before then. As a side note, if one looks closely at the ensemble MJO forecasts, it seems like there are often one or two members that go backwards. I remember reading somewhere that NWP models often not infrequently predict the MJO to go backward, but it almost never happens. That goes into the "I wonder why they can't fix that" file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 give me the euro and lets call it a winter 1 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range.... @brooklynwx99 You mentioned the solstice window. I'm sure this will lock in, right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS (and the GFS too) is such garbage in the short range, especially with the rain-to-snow. If half of us get 1” tomorrow, I’ll buy everyone here a drink. Start a thread! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 euro ensembles seemed to have gotten colder for Dec 18-23 window 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 57 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range.... JB messed with that Run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 Just now, Daniel Boone said: JB messed with that Run. He's hacking into the ECMWF, taking over BAMWx's twitter feed. The man is out of control. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: So you're going to make everyone go look,huh? Things like that always weaken the resolve to not look, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 1 hour ago, Ji said: give me the euro and lets call it a winter Amen brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 Concerning the Euro around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 Meh need the euro to dig more. Don’t like the bullseye up in NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 9 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Meh need the euro to dig more. Don’t like the bullseye up in NE PA lol don’t worry it will be in Michigan next run 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Things like that always weaken the resolve to not look, lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 It is never good when you see a L in the Great Lakes region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 It is never good when you see a L in the Great Lakes region.Thanks Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 Gfs kinda has the euro system 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range.... Yea right lol let's see it for 8 runs before I believe this nonsense. I will check back in on Saturday with the Euro. It will change 8 times by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 Little interesting look on the GFS.... wonky! Sure that goes different later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 23 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Little interesting look on the GFS.... wonky! Sure that goes different later. Ya what a weird run. Multiple passes with snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 Well there are definitely some interesting takes being throw around by the operationals at range. I just have trouble convincing myself that the thermals will be recovered enough by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 10, 2024 Share Posted December 10, 2024 5 hours ago, Ji said: give me the euro and lets call it a winter Ha! How quickly you forget Jan 2016. Even the blizzard wasn't enough for you that winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2024 Share Posted December 11, 2024 WB 18Z GFS...dreaming of a white Christmas.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 11, 2024 Share Posted December 11, 2024 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS...dreaming of a white Christmas.... Well, not sure how great the GEFS is considering it has me at 7 inches of snow by Friday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 11, 2024 Share Posted December 11, 2024 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS...dreaming of a white Christmas.... What’s funny is that 95% of that snow is from tomorrow’s non-event. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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