December Medium/ Long Range

[BristowWx]

22 minutes ago, 87storms said:

So basically, we have a better chance at snow in January and February…like every year.

Well not necessarily but….yeah that pretty much sums it up

[NorthArlington101]

36 minutes ago, 87storms said:

So basically, we have a better chance at snow in January and February…like every year.

Anyone who falls the for the trap that it can snow in December in the lowlands anymore is stupid…

 

 

 

[TSSN+]

23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Anyone who falls the for the trap that it can snow in December in the lowlands anymore is stupid…

 

 

 

Obviously it can we just need an actual storm. Not like it’s snowing anywhere close to here anytime soon besides far north. 

[Kevin Reilly]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Well, it is above normal basically everywhere what is causing all this warmth???  Hmm.....

[Kevin Reilly]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If you pull back and stop focusing on our locations specific snow chances the biggest issue I see is this…

We need cold anomalies to snow. Our coldest day of the year has an avg high near 40. But if you simply look at a 5 or 10 day mean temp anomaly for the whole northern hemisphere the warm expanse outnumbers cold by 2 and sometimes 3-1 across the mid latitudes. 
 

We got lucky recently that one of the small (globally speaking) pockets of cold did end up over us for a week, but how often are we going to win if we need cold and 2/3 of the whole hemisphere is warm at any given time?

This has been the normal now for the past 5 years it is basically exactly the same. Winter for 2-3 weeks and then it is over. 

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

For most no.  But it’s worth saying that there comes a point, and we aren’t there yet, where it won’t even matter what the pattern is. It just won’t be cold enough unless we get increasingly anomalous setups. 

Honestly, I think that is what we are on the cusp now and will only heighten in time. 

[cbmclean]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

dont let PSU get you down too much. We have had decent winters following a moderate to strong Nino. Not great but fine. 2004-05 wasnt bad. 2010-11 wasnt bad. 87-88, 95-96 wasnt that bad....87-88 wasnt horrible.....2016-17 was a disaster 

I'm still not ready for a world where Ji is the one trying to keep everybody optimistic...

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

did JB hijak Bamwx account?

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866187927140663665

Yea, keep checking back to I can get hits on my site for something that is not going to materialize.  It's getting old and it is the same old dance. All about ratings.  I would say check back two days before it snows not 384 hours. 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dr. No is, and has always been, a c*ck tease. 

I fully expect it to show a flush hit next run then take it away never to be seen again in usual Euro fashion.

Actually, that is most models over the past 4-5 years.  The models give you hope of what winter looked like 10+ years ago then it reverts to the WARM PACIFIC REGIME!  Nothing new really.  I mean case in point 12z GFS showed PD3 near or just before Christmas where are you now. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[87storms]

Anyone who falls the for the trap that it can snow in December in the lowlands anymore is stupid…
 

 
 

I’d be with stupid more often if we get a pattern where storms actually traversed south of our latitude.

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Actually, that is most models over the past 4-5 years.  The models give you hope of what winter looked like 10+ years ago then it reverts to the WARM PACIFIC REGIME!  Nothing new really.  I mean case in point 12z GFS showed PD3 near or just before Christmas where are you now. 

As of now, the NPAC is much more favorable than it was just a Month ago. Cooled substantially in the WPAC and warmed in the GOA. This should help with the -EPO as it should shunt the Nina augmented Pac Ridge further East. How long those cooler SST'S remain in the WPAC is up for debate but at any rate should be a good while imo. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WxUSAF]

The setup for the weak system this weekend seems to look good, but that powerhouse 1017mb low in the Midwest just bullies the 1047mb high over New England out of the way

[midatlanticweather]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The setup for the weak system this weekend seems to look good, but that powerhouse 1017mb low in the Midwest just bullies the 1047mb high over New England out of the way

Euro is bullish on rain.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO...get the gutters cleared out tomorrow!!!! Rain Wed. And Sunday...

[BristowWx]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO...get the gutters cleared out tomorrow!!!! Rain Wed. And Sunday...

Thought that map was 2m temps for 25 December.  Crisis averted.  

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thought that map was 2m temps for 25 December.  Crisis averted.  

Wait for it.....

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Thought that map was 2m temps for 25 December.  Crisis averted.  

So you don't want a high of 3.06 °F near DC and 2.98 °F near Baltimore?

[cbmclean]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Hey could ya blame me?  But nah not obsessively--but I have been hoping that one of these years it would finally start to cool off...and of course we're hoping that -PDO will finally relent! (I'm unclear on how the two are connected if someone could chime in on that. I just know that the warm pool has been a part of said pain in the butt).

The West Pac warm pool is in the equatorial region east of Indonesia.  It is potentially connected to the MJO.  Specifically, the expansion of the warm pool over the last decade or so is thought by some to be a driving force in the strong bias to the "bad" phases of the MJO (i.e. 4-6) observed in that time frame.  Meanwhile the PDO is a pattern of observed temp anomalies in the North Pacific.  As to how/if they are connected, my blanket assumption in weather is that everything is connected to everything.  In any event both conditions appear to be positively correlated to greater prevalence and intensity of southeast ridges and hence east coast snow weenie tears.

[jayyy]

Obviously it can we just need an actual storm. Not like it’s snowing anywhere close to here anytime soon besides far north. 

Also, pretty sure the lowlands technically saw some snow in late November. Didn’t accumulate but it was snowing in places like Columbia and points N. It’s clearly possible. Difficult? 150%. A big storm? Even less likely. But not impossible.

[BristowWx]

5 hours ago, cbmclean said:

So you don't want a high of 3.06 °F near DC and 2.98 °F near Baltimore?

If that turns out to be the 2m departure from average map Ji will post it with “Merry Christmas one and all” caption..and I will promptly shit my own blinds

[Weather Will]

Only have about a mile drive to the train station but the fog is horrible if you are an early commuter.  Stay safe out there, or better yet if you have a long driving commute work from home today if you can. May be some school delays....

[TSSN+]

Let’s get the party started. Merry warmist 

 

 

[Weather Will]

Got to get the MJO out of Phase 6....hopefully by the end of the year....

[CAPE]

I'd take my chances with this look in early Jan. Visualize a NS wave tracking just underneath.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Got to get the MJO out of Phase 6....hopefully by the end of the year....

The one that verifies will be the one that loops backwards through 4 -5 -6 again...

[dallen7908]

41 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The one that verifies will be the one that loops backwards through 4 -5 -6 again...

Obviously, you're kidding but although the phase speed is slowing due to interference from La Niña conditions the magic land of phase 7 is still expected to be reached in early January according to the NOAA CPC Weekly MJO Update that was posted here yesterday by Eskimo Joe and hinted at by WxUSA and with it chances of measurable snow.  Hopefully, we'll luck into something before then. 

[Bob Chill]

20 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s also worth pointing out that some have transitioned to rooting for EPO driven cold patterns because lately our more classical ways to snow have failed due to not being cold enough. But this last week was an example of the issue with that.  EPO driven patterns are often dry when it’s cold.  2014 and 2015 were anomalies not normal.  

 

In a nina or cold neutral, you kinda have to root for a +tnh pattern in general unless a real blocky winter pattern shows up.  That's why I've been aligned with the idea since fall. It's not just temps, it's prob the best way this season to get anything in the NS to track under us or at least approach from the south.  95-96 is not walkin in the door imho so the next best way to keep the SE ridge or any semblance of such out of our faces is getting it smashed down by a progressive -epo/+tnh longwave pattern. In some ways, it's a best case scenario in a winter that is highly unlikely to overperform. I don't think anyone is expecting anything close to a big winter. We just want to drink a little sweet lemonade instead of other yellow beverages that keep getting served lol

 

[dailylurker]

6 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Yes we know  its going to rain thank u... u  keep posting the same rain crap every day lol

I appreciate the rain updates. I actually started a thread a couple years ago for tracking winter rain. I find rain interesting so please don't discouraged anyone from posting anything weather related. 

The GFS looks like it took our Sunday rain away or decreased it as the storm tracks to our NW. It has a heavy band of snow move across the area north of 70 tomorrow night.