Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 57 minutes ago, Ji said: dr no was trying to do some mischief Dr. No is, and has always been, a c*ck tease. I fully expect it to show a flush hit next run then take it away never to be seen again in usual Euro fashion. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 wouldn't be shocking to see a storm pop up around the solstice as the PNA rises and ridging builds into AK. would favor the interior but it's something to watch 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 hours ago, Ji said: dont let PSU get you down too much. We have had decent winters following a moderate to strong Nino. Not great but fine. 2004-05 wasnt bad. 2010-11 wasnt bad. 87-88, 95-96 wasnt that bad....87-88 wasnt horrible.....2016-17 was a disaster We have…but most of those years you mentioned were horrible PDO matches and not good enso either. Remember a stronger Nina is actually better for us oddly enough. 05-06 did barely make it into my analogs and it was the best result among them. But it really wasn’t a great PDO fit. 96 and 2011 both happened during opposite PDO cycles to where we are now. Unfortunately if you look at weak cold enso events in a strongly -pdo cycle there are no snowy years. The best we could hope for would be a year like 2022 that is just a little below avg snowfall across the region. (Yes I know a few local areas bad above normal they don’t need to remind me every time but all the reporting stations were below avg). But the majority of -pdo cycle weak cold enso years were single digit snowfall. It’s frankly the worst combo we can have for snowfall. But we can root for a fluke. We only have a sample size of like 10. I’m sure if we had 100 chances 1 or 2 fluke snowy results would happen. And most years did have at least one snow event so I don’t think a total shutout like 2023 is likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 So basically, we have a better chance at snow in January and February…like every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 22 minutes ago, 87storms said: So basically, we have a better chance at snow in January and February…like every year. Well not necessarily but….yeah that pretty much sums it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 36 minutes ago, 87storms said: So basically, we have a better chance at snow in January and February…like every year. Anyone who falls the for the trap that it can snow in December in the lowlands anymore is stupid… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Anyone who falls the for the trap that it can snow in December in the lowlands anymore is stupid… Obviously it can we just need an actual storm. Not like it’s snowing anywhere close to here anytime soon besides far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Well, it is above normal basically everywhere what is causing all this warmth??? Hmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: If you pull back and stop focusing on our locations specific snow chances the biggest issue I see is this… We need cold anomalies to snow. Our coldest day of the year has an avg high near 40. But if you simply look at a 5 or 10 day mean temp anomaly for the whole northern hemisphere the warm expanse outnumbers cold by 2 and sometimes 3-1 across the mid latitudes. We got lucky recently that one of the small (globally speaking) pockets of cold did end up over us for a week, but how often are we going to win if we need cold and 2/3 of the whole hemisphere is warm at any given time? This has been the normal now for the past 5 years it is basically exactly the same. Winter for 2-3 weeks and then it is over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: For most no. But it’s worth saying that there comes a point, and we aren’t there yet, where it won’t even matter what the pattern is. It just won’t be cold enough unless we get increasingly anomalous setups. Honestly, I think that is what we are on the cusp now and will only heighten in time. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 hours ago, Ji said: dont let PSU get you down too much. We have had decent winters following a moderate to strong Nino. Not great but fine. 2004-05 wasnt bad. 2010-11 wasnt bad. 87-88, 95-96 wasnt that bad....87-88 wasnt horrible.....2016-17 was a disaster I'm still not ready for a world where Ji is the one trying to keep everybody optimistic... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 hours ago, Ji said: did JB hijak Bamwx account? https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866187927140663665 Yea, keep checking back to I can get hits on my site for something that is not going to materialize. It's getting old and it is the same old dance. All about ratings. I would say check back two days before it snows not 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dr. No is, and has always been, a c*ck tease. I fully expect it to show a flush hit next run then take it away never to be seen again in usual Euro fashion. Actually, that is most models over the past 4-5 years. The models give you hope of what winter looked like 10+ years ago then it reverts to the WARM PACIFIC REGIME! Nothing new really. I mean case in point 12z GFS showed PD3 near or just before Christmas where are you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Anyone who falls the for the trap that it can snow in December in the lowlands anymore is stupid… I’d be with stupid more often if we get a pattern where storms actually traversed south of our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Actually, that is most models over the past 4-5 years. The models give you hope of what winter looked like 10+ years ago then it reverts to the WARM PACIFIC REGIME! Nothing new really. I mean case in point 12z GFS showed PD3 near or just before Christmas where are you now. As of now, the NPAC is much more favorable than it was just a Month ago. Cooled substantially in the WPAC and warmed in the GOA. This should help with the -EPO as it should shunt the Nina augmented Pac Ridge further East. How long those cooler SST'S remain in the WPAC is up for debate but at any rate should be a good while imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 The setup for the weak system this weekend seems to look good, but that powerhouse 1017mb low in the Midwest just bullies the 1047mb high over New England out of the way 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The setup for the weak system this weekend seems to look good, but that powerhouse 1017mb low in the Midwest just bullies the 1047mb high over New England out of the way Euro is bullish on rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 WB 18Z EURO...get the gutters cleared out tomorrow!!!! Rain Wed. And Sunday... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO...get the gutters cleared out tomorrow!!!! Rain Wed. And Sunday... Thought that map was 2m temps for 25 December. Crisis averted. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Thought that map was 2m temps for 25 December. Crisis averted. Wait for it..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: Thought that map was 2m temps for 25 December. Crisis averted. So you don't want a high of 3.06 °F near DC and 2.98 °F near Baltimore? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol Hey could ya blame me? But nah not obsessively--but I have been hoping that one of these years it would finally start to cool off...and of course we're hoping that -PDO will finally relent! (I'm unclear on how the two are connected if someone could chime in on that. I just know that the warm pool has been a part of said pain in the butt). The West Pac warm pool is in the equatorial region east of Indonesia. It is potentially connected to the MJO. Specifically, the expansion of the warm pool over the last decade or so is thought by some to be a driving force in the strong bias to the "bad" phases of the MJO (i.e. 4-6) observed in that time frame. Meanwhile the PDO is a pattern of observed temp anomalies in the North Pacific. As to how/if they are connected, my blanket assumption in weather is that everything is connected to everything. In any event both conditions appear to be positively correlated to greater prevalence and intensity of southeast ridges and hence east coast snow weenie tears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Obviously it can we just need an actual storm. Not like it’s snowing anywhere close to here anytime soon besides far north. Also, pretty sure the lowlands technically saw some snow in late November. Didn’t accumulate but it was snowing in places like Columbia and points N. It’s clearly possible. Difficult? 150%. A big storm? Even less likely. But not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 5 hours ago, cbmclean said: So you don't want a high of 3.06 °F near DC and 2.98 °F near Baltimore? If that turns out to be the 2m departure from average map Ji will post it with “Merry Christmas one and all” caption..and I will promptly shit my own blinds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Only have about a mile drive to the train station but the fog is horrible if you are an early commuter. Stay safe out there, or better yet if you have a long driving commute work from home today if you can. May be some school delays.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Let’s get the party started. Merry warmist 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Got to get the MJO out of Phase 6....hopefully by the end of the year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 I'd take my chances with this look in early Jan. Visualize a NS wave tracking just underneath. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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