December Medium/ Long Range

[TSSN+]

I feel so unsure
As I take my hand and click on pivital
As the run arrives, something in your eyes
Calls to mind a brutal scene 
And all its sad solutions 

It’s never snow again
These lower 48 have got no cold air 
Though it's easy to pretend
I know you're not a fool

I should've known better than to hope for snow
And waste the time that I'd been given
So it’s never gonna snow again
The way it snowed before, oh 

 

 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I feel so unsure
As I take my hand and click on pivital
As the run arrives, something in your eyes
Calls to mind a brutal scene 
And all its sad solutions 

It’s never snow again
These lower 48 have got no cold air 
Though it's easy to pretend
I know you're not a fool

I should've known better than to hope for snow
And waste the time that I'd been given
So it’s never gonna snow again
The way it snowed before, oh 

 

 

It's going to snow on Christmas day. It's will be remembered as CD1 420

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

It's going to snow on Christmas day. It's will be remembered as CD1 420

Ya it’ll snow on Christmas Day. In Nova Scotia. 

[Paleocene]

its a bad day when CAPE and the red taggers don't post a glimmer of hope in the morning

[North Balti Zen]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

its a bad day when CAPE and the red taggers don't post a glimmer of hope in the morning

Just means it is a day of the week that ends in a “y”

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

its a bad day when CAPE and the red taggers don't post a glimmer of hope in the morning

ive seen worse maps leading up to christmas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2024120900/eps_T2ma_namer_55.png

[Heisy]

ive seen worse maps leading up to christmas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2024120900/eps_T2ma_namer_55.png

I’m personally meh. Not to sound all negative, but we got teased in the 10+ day LR all year the past 2-3 years. 00z took a baby step backward. When I see progress under 10 days I’ll get excited. The snow means on the ensembles are garbage as well. 1” mean thru 360 hours here in Philly from the 00z eps pretty much sums up what to expect over the next 15 days. December 2024 is toast imo. January could offer some hope though.

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

its a bad day when CAPE and the red taggers don't post a glimmer of hope in the morning

A glimmer of hope for what? Wed/Thurs? Well I've learned to ignore supposed backend snow scenarios as they don't usually work here. But...here's a glimmer of hope for the bigger picture that was shared in the general thread 

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

You may be right, but I can't recall this kind of cooling over such a large area of the warm pool, from the far western Indian Ocean to Enso 4. And would you expect this kind of cooling with just convection? Idk, just seems like maybe there's more to it. Time will tell I guess.

Cool the pool! Cool the pool! 

[cbmclean]

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A glimmer of hope for what? Wed/Thurs? Well I've learned to ignore supposed backend snow scenarios as they don't usually work here. But...here's a glimmer of hope for the bigger picture that was shared in the general thread 

Cool the pool! Cool the pool! 

Maestro, you're not obsessively monitoring the status of the West Pac warm pool, hoping against hope for any sign of its weakening from it's current "King Kong on a rampage through New York" strength, are you?

[psuhoffman]

[psuhoffman]

There’s a tiny spec of cold in the NW tip of AK 

[psuhoffman]

If you pull back and stop focusing on our locations specific snow chances the biggest issue I see is this…

We need cold anomalies to snow. Our coldest day of the year has an avg high near 40. But if you simply look at a 5 or 10 day mean temp anomaly for the whole northern hemisphere the warm expanse outnumbers cold by 2 and sometimes 3-1 across the mid latitudes. 
 

We got lucky recently that one of the small (globally speaking) pockets of cold did end up over us for a week, but how often are we going to win if we need cold and 2/3 of the whole hemisphere is warm at any given time?

[Paleocene]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

tempoutlook.map

Exactly. Another couple weeks of 45 and sprinkles

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you pull back and stop focusing on our locations specific snow chances the biggest issue I see is this…

We need cold anomalies to snow. Our coldest day of the year has an avg high near 40. But if you simply look at a 5 or 10 day mean temp anomaly for the whole northern hemisphere the warm expanse outnumbers cold by 2 and sometimes 3-1 across the mid latitudes. 
 

We got lucky recently that one of the small (globally speaking) pockets of cold did end up over us for a week, but how often are we going to win if we need cold and 2/3 of the whole hemisphere is warm at any given time?

Is this some sort of unexpected development?

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is this some sort of unexpected development?

Someone should do a study on this development. Seems like the earth might be warming. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866182065227517973?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Someone should do a study on this development. Seems like the earth might be warming. 

To clarify I fully agree with the assessment.  I just doubt that anyone who hasn't already been convinced is ever going to be.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is this some sort of unexpected development?

For most no.  But it’s worth saying that there comes a point, and we aren’t there yet, where it won’t even matter what the pattern is. It just won’t be cold enough unless we get increasingly anomalous setups. 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866182065227517973?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

Did BAMWx decide they were going to see if it might be fun to be relentless cold-hypers instead of relentless warm-hypers?  I would have stuck with the warm hype; there's more future in it

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For most no.  But it’s worth saying that there comes a point, and we aren’t there yet, where it won’t even matter what the pattern is. It just won’t be cold enough unless we get increasingly anomalous setups. 

My homeland (eastern NC) has already passed that point I think.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is this some sort of unexpected development?

It’s also worth pointing out that some have transitioned to rooting for EPO driven cold patterns because lately our more classical ways to snow have failed due to not being cold enough. But this last week was an example of the issue with that.  EPO driven patterns are often dry when it’s cold.  2014 and 2015 were anomalies not normal.  

 

[Ji]

dr no was trying to do some mischief

[Maestrobjwa]

59 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Maestro, you're not obsessively monitoring the status of the West Pac warm pool, hoping against hope for any sign of its weakening from it's current "King Kong on a rampage through New York" strength, are you?

Lol Hey could ya blame me?  But nah not obsessively--but I have been hoping that one of these years it would finally start to cool off...and of course we're hoping that -PDO will finally relent! (I'm unclear on how the two are connected if someone could chime in on that. I just know that the warm pool has been a part of said pain in the butt).

[Ji]

dont let PSU get you down too much. We have had decent winters following a moderate to strong Nino. Not great but fine. 2004-05 wasnt bad. 2010-11 wasnt bad. 87-88, 95-96 wasnt that bad....87-88 wasnt horrible.....2016-17 was a disaster 

[Miss Pixee]

On 12/7/2024 at 7:42 PM, winter_warlock said:

Ok ill ask the dumb question......what he hell is a curmudgeon?? Lol

I think it's a cross between a coot and a crank.

[Ji]

did JB hijak Bamwx account?

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866187927140663665

[Ralph Wiggum]

57 minutes ago, Ji said:

dr no was trying to do some mischief

Dr. No is, and has always been, a c*ck tease. 

I fully expect it to show a flush hit next run then take it away never to be seen again in usual Euro fashion.

[brooklynwx99]

wouldn't be shocking to see a storm pop up around the solstice as the PNA rises and ridging builds into AK. would favor the interior but it's something to watch

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

dont let PSU get you down too much. We have had decent winters following a moderate to strong Nino. Not great but fine. 2004-05 wasnt bad. 2010-11 wasnt bad. 87-88, 95-96 wasnt that bad....87-88 wasnt horrible.....2016-17 was a disaster 

We have…but most of those years you mentioned were horrible PDO matches and not good enso either. Remember a stronger Nina is actually better for us oddly enough. 
 

05-06 did barely make it into my analogs and it was the best result among them. But it really wasn’t a great PDO fit. 
 

96 and 2011 both happened during opposite PDO cycles to where we are now. 
 

Unfortunately if you look at weak cold enso events in a strongly -pdo cycle there are no snowy years. The best we could hope for would be a year like 2022 that is just a little below avg snowfall across the region. (Yes I know a few local areas bad above normal they don’t need to remind me every time but all the reporting stations were below avg).  
 

But the majority of -pdo cycle weak cold enso years were single digit snowfall.  It’s frankly the worst combo we can have for snowfall. But we can root for a fluke. We only have a sample size of like 10.  I’m sure if we had 100 chances 1 or 2 fluke snowy results would happen. And most years did have at least one snow event so I don’t think a total shutout like 2023 is likely. 

[87storms]

So basically, we have a better chance at snow in January and February…like every year.