stormy Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 6 hours ago, Weather Will said: I hope people care if we have an adequate water supply next summer. Ji is not into water. He only craves ice crystals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Really good write up from Dr. Cohen here about his thoughts on the upcoming AO and a weakening PV. Not sure if it was posted previously. But worth the read: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: Its been warm up there for so long, it’s gonna take a while for it to freeze over. And with the upcoming 500 pattern, i’m not sure it will by christmas. That being said, there will be plenty of snow cover from the looks of it. Yeah, that will enhance the Snowcover on the Lee sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 It seems unlikely a NPAC trough will persist in a Nina, but who knows. If it does, ideally it retrogrades towards the Aleutians. The weeklies show that progression going forward. The orientation of the ridge as depicted here would probably make it difficult to get a digging shortwave to go neutral/negative until right at the coast/offshore. The period beyond this might be more interesting for storm chances, and probably with colder air in place. Maybe a NYE storm. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: It seems unlikely a NPAC trough will persist in a Nina It's barely a Nina though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 21 hours ago, high risk said: We get that you don't like computer forecasting models, but could you please stop spouting pure nonsense about them? Keep in mind the thing about free speech . This is a weather discussion board-all aspects and components of weather. You model worshippers are stuck with no ability to discuss anything other than what models give to you. They are inefficient as far as the One aspect and one aspect only that I identify-wintertime low pressure placements for eastern 1/3 of nation. that needs correction and I will continue to address that reality. Mostly what I do is observations, with models a small segment of what I say, and I’m here 365 unlike the snow bunnies so I will keep talking as I see fit 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 11 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: It's barely a Nina though. Based on traditional metrics maybe. Have you heard the oceans are really warm these days? Temps in Nino 3.4 are quite cool relative to the rest of the Tropical Pacific. RONI > ONI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Keep in mind the thing about free speech . This is a weather discussion board-all aspects and components of weather. You model worshippers are stuck with no ability to discuss anything other than what models give to you. They are inefficient as far as the One aspect and one aspect only that I identify-wintertime low pressure placements for eastern 1/3 of nation. that needs correction and I will continue to address that reality. Mostly what I do is observations, with models a small segment of what I say, and I’m here 365 unlike the snow bunnies so I will keep talking as I see fit Not surprising you are also willfully ignorant about the first amendment. Free speech on an online weather forum lol. Go ahead and put that to the test you insufferable curmudgeon. 2 1 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not surprising you are also willfully ignorant about the first amendment. Free speech on an online weather forum lol. Go ahead and put that to the test you insufferable curmudgeon. Haha, I think the both of us were working up a response to this ridiculous argument. I wrote a response but moved it to the Banter thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: It seems unlikely a NPAC trough will persist in a Nina, but who knows. If it does, ideally it retrogrades towards the Aleutians. The weeklies show that progression going forward. The orientation of the ridge as depicted here would probably make it difficult to get a digging shortwave to go neutral/negative until right at the coast/offshore. The period beyond this might be more interesting for storm chances, and probably with colder air in place. Maybe a NYE storm. The ficticious NYE storm...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Keep in mind the thing about free speech . This is a weather discussion board-all aspects and components of weather. You model worshippers are stuck with no ability to discuss anything other than what models give to you. They are inefficient as far as the One aspect and one aspect only that I identify-wintertime low pressure placements for eastern 1/3 of nation. that needs correction and I will continue to address that reality. Mostly what I do is observations, with models a small segment of what I say, and I’m here 365 unlike the snow bunnies so I will keep talking as I see fit You say that NHC runs its own models which are not prone to big errors; you might be surprised to learn that the primary hurricane models are actually generated by the same U.S. center that generates the models you hate so much. And those hurricane models actually use the same model core as the primary U.S. medium range model that drives you nuts. And those hurricane model forecasts, and NHC, bust far more often that you realize. Criticize models to your heart's content, but your 48 cent takes on what models are and how they're developed and run is tiresome. 5 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Not only is it tiresome it is off topic for a long range discussion thread every single time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 25 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Not only is it tiresome it is off topic for a long range discussion thread every single time. I wish folks would just not respond to him. Just don't feed whatever toxicity he's got going on, y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Howie hasn’t made a significant weather contribution since 2002-03. Just ignore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Ho ho ho…I haven’t made a significant contribution since March 2001 but merry Christmas 4 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Ho ho ho…I haven’t made a significant contribution since March 2001 but merry Christmas Hey, I'm normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Not surprising you are also willfully ignorant about the first amendment. Free speech on an online weather forum lol. Go ahead and put that to the test you insufferable curmudgeon. Ok ill ask the dumb question......what he hell is a curmudgeon?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, Ji said: Ho ho ho…I haven’t made a significant contribution since March 2001 but merry Christmas Damn that's a torch and a half!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Damn that's a torch and a half!!!! Here's the H500 for that time: deep NPac trough. Question for the board, does this count as "Pac Puke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Here is the 12Z EPS members at Day 15....jury is still out on whether it will cold /warm/normal... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 18 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Here's the H500 for that time: deep NPac trough. Question for the board, does this count as "Pac Puke Oh yea that's a "weld the blinds shut" look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 31 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok ill ask the dumb question......what he hell is a curmudgeon?? Lol Basically someone grumpily opinionated, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 GEFS moves the MJO into warm phase 6 at the end of the two week period. EURO has half its members in the null phase in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 8 Author Share Posted December 8 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: GEFS moves the MJO into warm phase 6 at the end of the two week period. EURO has half its members in the null phase in twowwwka. Given the strongly negative -pdo, I think we want to root for a stronger mjo pass through 6-7 into 8-1 in order to break up the pac jet and induce some pacific blocking 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Damn that's a torch and a half!!!!Didn’t it show cold leading into Christmas like… last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Weeklies still look good into Mid January..... nothing wrong with the WB EPS control run this time around....at least we have some cold air around this year... we are just going to have to luck into a flush hit. We will know within 3 months... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Didn’t it show cold leading into Christmas like… last night? That’s a 384 Op run they are referring to posted a little earlier… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Hey, I'm normal! That's great ! Alot of folks aren't these Days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 12z EPS still has a very workable look by day 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Didn’t it show cold leading into Christmas like… last night? That is that positive EPO Vortex going to be hard to get rid of that. Let's hope that doesn't happen Christmas is cooked then. I am trying to hold out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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