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December Medium/ Long Range


Terpeast
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40 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Anyone know how accurate the icon model is compared to the others?

"Accuracy" is a surprisingly nebulous concept for something as complex as NWP, as it varies widely based on location, season and exactly what parameter you are talking about (H500, qpf etc).  That said the Icon has traditionally been considered one of the JV models but I have no idea if that is still true or not.

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18z euro looked good and then the run ended !

The 18z gfs run from yesterday was the evolution I was hoping the models would morph into. That basically lagged the main shortwave behind the front and it redeveloped.

Of course the models went away from that idea overnight….

The depiction on the 18z euro isn’t ideal. Maybe we’d get some post frontal snow but there’s nothing out ahead of the low to knock temps down.

24029e11cb169899c1c9717b226770da.jpg


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Unlike yesterday’s BAMwx tweeted hype showing that extreme record-breaking 6Z CFS way out in mid-Jan, this (along with his Wednesday video) is well presented by Michael Clark with minimal or no outright “hype” showing his ideas of a mainly warming rest of Dec followed by realistic potential for a cold Jan (many models are shown rather than just the CFS and the CFS shown is not a cherry picked extreme WeatherBell map):

 

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