Eskimo Joe Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Decent looking trough. Just needs to get going a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Thanks for posting that. This tweet was posted elsewhere and here was my response to the bottom portion that addresses the extremely unreliable late portion of the cherry picked WB 6Z CFS ens mean: “I’d be cautious with WeatherBell CFS maps as they are usually colder than the NOAA and other versions. Also, one run of the CFS ensemble (4 members) like is being shown here (6Z of today) is extremely low in reliability, especially for the period near the end of the run. They jump around a lot. BAMwx shouldn’t imo be showing something like this as it borders on hype. They said ‘The CFS weekly is on board as well with a monster Alaskan ridge stretching well up into the pole. (-EPO)’ as if it were a big deal. But they cherry picked an extra cold run of the very jumpy, unreliable CFS and a WB version (colder than other versions) of it to boot. Don’t get me wrong. I’d love nothing more than for something like this to actually occur. But I don’t like to see hype.” Here’s the insanely ridiculously unrealistic and highly flawed WB 2m temperature anomaly map for this 6Z CFS ens mean for Jan 9-15: -10 to -30F anomalies (also note the typical WB CFS relative warm spot in N Michigan that’s indicative of a WB CFS flaw) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Cmc improved from 12 hours ago.. in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: To my eye, all 3 ensembles appear in the process of redeveloping western ridging at the end of their runs. GEPS is fastest and GEFS is slowest, with EPS in the middle. Also been a notable guidance trend toward more ridging over the pole the last couple days and it continues through the ensemble periods. That can’t hurt. Until Mongolia stops sending down the goods, we stay cold. It’s going to produce most of this month. Specifically, out of the next 25 days, 18/19 will be below average with some -15 or colder. I’ll leave it up to the agency that tries to predict low pressure placements to do so but gotta have the cold to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 WB 12Z GFS and Can. Both show welcome rain over the next 7 days early next week and next Th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 5 Author Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Decent looking trough. Just needs to get going a little earlier. 6z euro looks similar. 12z gfs has a flatter and further north trough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 12z euro was close again. we are good at close 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 12z euro was close again. we are good at close Are we 33 and rain territory close? Or horseshoes and hand-grenades close? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Thanks for posting that. This tweet was posted elsewhere and here was my response to the bottom portion that addresses the extremely unreliable late portion of the cherry picked WB 6Z CFS ens mean: “I’d be cautious with WeatherBell CFS maps as they are usually colder than the NOAA and other versions. Also, one run of the CFS ensemble (4 members) like is being shown here (6Z of today) is extremely low in reliability, especially for the period near the end of the run. They jump around a lot. BAMwx shouldn’t imo be showing something like this as it borders on hype. They said ‘The CFS weekly is on board as well with a monster Alaskan ridge stretching well up into the pole. (-EPO)’ as if it were a big deal. But they cherry picked an extra cold run of the very jumpy, unreliable CFS and a WB version (colder than other versions) of it to boot. Don’t get me wrong. I’d love nothing more than for something like this to actually occur. But I don’t like to see hype.” Here’s the insanely ridiculously unrealistic and highly flawed WB 2m temperature anomaly map for this 6Z CFS ens mean for Jan 9-15: -10 to -30F anomalies (also note the typical WB CFS relative warm spot in N Michigan that’s indicative of a WB CFS flaw) Your argument is probably lost on anyone who would take a 34.75 - 41.75 NWP output seriously to begin with. By the way, greetings fellow SE weenie. If we keep coming up to the MA forum they might have to build a border (fire)wall to keep us out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 i told BAMWx multiple times on Twitter that they will get way less page views if they keep pushing warmth lol... now no matter what...its 2013-14 from them 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i told BAMWx multiple times on Twitter that they will get way less page views if they keep pushing warmth lol... now no matter what...its 2013-14 from them 2013-2014 was a cold snowy winter in mid Atlantic ill take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ridge going up past Alaska could mean serious brutal arctic out break in eastern USA!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 the EPS at 360 looked like it forward to a decent looking pattern by Christmas. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, Ji said: i told BAMWx multiple times on Twitter that they will get way less page views if they keep pushing warmth lol... now no matter what...its 2013-14 from them DT is also tooting the same thing.. not Aleets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, winter_warlock said: 2013-2014 was a cold snowy winter in mid Atlantic ill take it An dominant -EPO ridge which somehow also manage to time the cold with the moisture to get good snow. Perhaps a one-in-a generation event or even rarer. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 5 hours ago, GaWx said: Thanks for posting that. This tweet was posted elsewhere and here was my response to the bottom portion that addresses the extremely unreliable late portion of the cherry picked WB 6Z CFS ens mean: “I’d be cautious with WeatherBell CFS maps as they are usually colder than the NOAA and other versions. Also, one run of the CFS ensemble (4 members) like is being shown here (6Z of today) is extremely low in reliability, especially for the period near the end of the run. They jump around a lot. BAMwx shouldn’t imo be showing something like this as it borders on hype. They said ‘The CFS weekly is on board as well with a monster Alaskan ridge stretching well up into the pole. (-EPO)’ as if it were a big deal. But they cherry picked an extra cold run of the very jumpy, unreliable CFS and a WB version (colder than other versions) of it to boot. Don’t get me wrong. I’d love nothing more than for something like this to actually occur. But I don’t like to see hype.” Here’s the insanely ridiculously unrealistic and highly flawed WB 2m temperature anomaly map for this 6Z CFS ens mean for Jan 9-15: -10 to -30F anomalies (also note the typical WB CFS relative warm spot in N Michigan that’s indicative of a WB CFS flaw) Are their 500 maps off as well? I thought it was just the temp algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Are their 500 maps off as well? I thought it was just temps. I’ve been focusing on temps. However, I’m also leaning toward WB CFS H5 runs averaging too low. I’ve seen numerous WB CFS H5 maps with blue colors dominating the hemisphere, which isn’t realistic in a warming world since avg H5 is also rising. Regardless, BAMwx cherry picked a very cold CFS ens late in the run, which is my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 GFS might do something? I’ll know in 2 minutes lol. edit: looks like it’s just a different way to lose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 55 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Are their 500 maps off as well? I thought it was just the temp algorithm. The 12Z WB CFS ens mean temps are not surprisingly much warmer than the 6Z WB CFS for 1/9-15 even though it is still pretty cold in a smaller area 6Z: Chicago ~25 BN 12Z: Chicago ~5 BN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z WB temps are not surprisingly much warmer than the 6Z for 1/9-15: 6Z: 12Z: That looks more like a possibility. Other looked like it moved Siberia to the lower 48. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 36 minutes ago, T. August said: GFS might do something? I’ll know in 2 minutes lol. edit: looks like it’s just a different way to lose. We need that initial wave to be stronger and drag the boundary south of us. The potential snow-producing wave can’t be the one to pull the cold air in. Then we’re chasing moisture with cold. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 5 Author Share Posted December 5 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We need that initial wave to be stronger and drag the boundary south of us. The potential snow-producing wave can’t be the one to pull the cold air in. Then we’re chasing moisture with cold. The ICON does this. Even better at 18z but only out to 120 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We need that initial wave to be stronger and drag the boundary south of us. The potential snow-producing wave can’t be the one to pull the cold air in. Then we’re chasing moisture with cold. Discombobulated. Doubtful that evolution will be the final outcome lol. That said, this is a thread the needle deal to get snow in the lowlands. Not impossible though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: If If you guys can just get some moisture up in there with that Alaskan cold......... I'd love to see the Mid Atlantic cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Not a good surface pressure configuration up top leading in on the GEFS. Pretty much the antithesis of what we want to see. Cold is way back to the NW and comes in after the storm passes. It would take a significant piece of energy that lags behind and moves along the thermal boundary as it shifts to our southeast. One member suggests this is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Latest WB EURO weeklies. Christmas looks near normal, not a torch....cold builds back into January and precip looks to be normal to above....not bad! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 6 hours ago, Ji said: 12z euro was close again. we are good at close we used to be good at digital snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest WB EURO weeklies. Christmas looks near normal, not a torch....cold builds back into January and precip looks to be normal to above....not bad! Imagine we get a huge snow storm on the anniversary of last January’s 80 degree day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: The ICON does this. Even better at 18z but only out to 120 Anyone know how accurate the icon model is compared to the others? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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