TSSN+ Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS out to hour 130ish seems to have a weaker and slightly farther north south wave but not sure how the NS will interact with it It’s gone yawn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 5 Author Share Posted December 5 Well south, but boundary is also south. Enough cold air for frozen. Not going to take much for it to pop. It’s so close. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: It’s gone yawn Way too much NS interaction too early, leads to a way more flat solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 The 0z Euro is trying for Wednesday night with a rain to snow scenario this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro is trying for Wednesday night with a rain to snow scenario this run. If this verifies I will lose the snowfall contest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: Because this cold period wasn’t well predicted, and we were coming off a record warm November. And I’m not saying we’re getting a snowy winter. I said I think we’ll see more variability. Most of the analogs I identified were a torch in the fall similar to this year then flipped colder sometime in mid to late November. But the true flip back to a dominant SER didn’t happen until closer to Jan 10-15 in many of the years. Our best window before March might be from Xmas to Jan 10 or so. Quite a few comp years had a cold shot and some snow during that period. For a few what little snow we got was in that window. From Jan 15-March 1 it was very ugly in most of them. March was a wildcard. A few flipped cold again. Some went warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Most of the analogs I identified were a torch in the fall similar to this year then flipped colder sometime in mid to late November. But the true flip back to a dominant SER didn’t happen until closer to Jan 10-15 in many of the years. Our best window before March might be from Xmas to Jan 10 or so. Quite a few comp years had a cold shot and some snow during that period. For a few what little snow we got was in that window. From Jan 15-March 1 it was very ugly in most of them. March was a wildcard. A few flipped cold again. Some went warm. Dang they had the Fall torch too? It just had to be a perfect match didn't it For all the chaos in weather, this seems kinda set in stone. I know the scientific folks will say ya don't know, but I mean...if it's never been different on the analogs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dang they had the Fall torch too? It just had to be a perfect match didn't it For all the chaos in weather, this seems kinda set in stone. I know the scientific folks will say ya don't know, but I mean...if it's never been different on the analogs... Weak Ninas are especially bad for snowfall for the DC area. Pretty sure every one has produced below avg snowfall. Now that doesnt mean no snow. Folks need to keep expectations realistic. Last year was a strong Nino winter and there was one 10 day stretch where it was cold and snowed twice, and that was it here. I'll gladly take that again this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Weak Ninas are especially bad for snowfall for the DC area. Pretty sure every one has produced below avg snowfall. Now that doesnt mean no snow. Folks need to keep expectations realistic. Last year was a strong Nino winter and there was one 10 day stretch where it was cold and snowed twice, and that was it here. I'll gladly take that again this winter. That's actually not true. 95-96 was a Weak Nina. Weak Nina's were actually a cold composite (random coincidence from not enough samples) until the early 2000s. Now I think 5 in a row have been warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 47 minutes ago, CAPE said: Weak Ninas are especially bad for snowfall for the DC area. Pretty sure every one has produced below avg snowfall. Now that doesnt mean no snow. Folks need to keep expectations realistic. Last year was a strong Nino winter and there was one 10 day stretch where it was cold and snowed twice, and that was it here. I'll gladly take that again this winter. 95-96!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 To my eye, all 3 ensembles appear in the process of redeveloping western ridging at the end of their runs. GEPS is fastest and GEFS is slowest, with EPS in the middle. Also been a notable guidance trend toward more ridging over the pole the last couple days and it continues through the ensemble periods. That can’t hurt. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 95-96!! Ok one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ok one lol. 54-55, 64-65, 83-84, 00-01. They were all below average temps, but I don't know about snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Sterling watches the storm for the 12th.... Looking ahead a little further, the aforementioned trough diving out of the Pacific Northwest moves into the Central Plains Tuesday. This will set the stage for a strong surface low to develop late Tuesday into Wednesday over the Arklatex region. This will be the system to watch in terms of any potential hazardous weather as we head into the middle/later portion of next week. The Canadian and Euro remain a bit more robust with a potent trough that becomes negatively- tilted over our region. However, the GFS is much less impressive, only showing a passing shortwave, similar to the early-week system but further south. Will have to see how things trend in the days ahead, but this continues to bear watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 54-55, 64-65, 83-84, 00-01. They were all below average temps, but I don't know about snow We talkin snow. 95-96 was borderline weak-moderate, so historically not considered weak? Seems to be the case. https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm And that is certainly implied in the quoted discussion below. From NOAA ENSO blog- Quote January–March snowfall during 9 weak La Niña winters from 1959–2024 compared to the average for all January–March periods from 1991–2020. The long-term trend in snowfall over this period has been removed, meaning the maps better show the influence of weak La Niñas by themselves. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on ERA5 reanalysis data and analysis by Michelle L’Heureux. This winter, if a La Niña forms, we’re expecting it to be a weak event. If you remember, a weaker La Niña means a weaker punch on the atmosphere and a less consistent impact on climate across North America. In the nine previous weak La Niña events, the pattern of snow was similar to that of all La Niña events with above-average snowfall observed, on-average, across the northwest and north central U.S. with below-average snowfall farther south. The count of how many (out of nine) weak La Nina events had below-average snowfall also showed similar patterns, with some bad news for those in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., where every single weak La Niña winter had below-average snow. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/revisiting-la-nina-and-winter-snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 5 Author Share Posted December 5 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Most of the analogs I identified were a torch in the fall similar to this year then flipped colder sometime in mid to late November. But the true flip back to a dominant SER didn’t happen until closer to Jan 10-15 in many of the years. Our best window before March might be from Xmas to Jan 10 or so. Quite a few comp years had a cold shot and some snow during that period. For a few what little snow we got was in that window. From Jan 15-March 1 it was very ugly in most of them. March was a wildcard. A few flipped cold again. Some went warm. Yeah, I’m thinking Feb torch. More interested in early Jan when the mjo gets out of the warm phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Just noticed it’s now gonna be in the 50s from Sunday to Wednesday. Sounds kind of awesome tbh. Would be cool to get snow chances returning in time for Chrismukkah, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 27 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I’m thinking Feb torch. More interested in early Jan when the mjo gets out of the warm phases. My wag is we will have opportunities throughout Jan. Fwiw the Euro weeklies look cold from Jan 1 through Jan 19(end of run). It will go back and forth but some cold shots should continue. Who knows about Feb. CanSIPS suggests we are close to the thermal boundary on avg. That implies some cold periods plus precip chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 17 minutes ago, 87storms said: Just noticed it’s now gonna be in the 50s from Sunday to Wednesday. Sounds kind of awesome tbh. Would be cool to get snow chances returning in time for Chrismukkah, though. What I’m hoping as well. Let it fade for a week or so then come right back around The 20th. It’ll be close but if you go by the 6 week rinse repeat schedule it may work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That's actually not true. 95-96 was a Weak Nina. Weak Nina's were actually a cold composite (random coincidence from not enough samples) until the early 2000s. Now I think 5 in a row have been warm. 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 95-96!! @CAPE Is right 96 was always an outlier where we had a positive PDO Nina in which the Nina never coupled with the long wave pattern. For a while it skewed the composite of weak ninas due to small sample. But it easy to solve this, exclude +pdp Nina’s in years that are obviously -pdo. And -pdo weak Nina’s are just awful, every single one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 54-55, 64-65, 83-84, 00-01. They were all below average temps, but I don't know about snow They were all below avg snow except 65 but same as 96 I exclude that as an analog due to being an outlier with the PDO and the predominant cycle we were in. Nothing about that period matches this one. If we just look at weak Nina’s that occurred during a strong -pdo they were all really bad wrt snow. Most weren’t complete shutouts though. But no examples that were snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'd like us just once to have a good analog. Feels like every year now the top analogs are crappy...but then again when you're in a -PDO cycle how many good ones actually exist? Lol P.S. Folks are annoyed by my lols but it's in place of the crying laughing emoji I use often that's not available on here. Last year, during the period when the models were spitting out THE epic pattern, I believe the analogs were good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE Is right 96 was always an outlier where we had a positive PDO Nina in which the Nina never coupled with the long wave pattern. For a while it skewed the composite of weak ninas due to small sample. But it easy to solve this, exclude +pdp Nina’s in years that are obviously -pdo. And -pdo weak Nina’s are just awful, every single one. And after digging a bit (see my post above) 95-96 is considered a moderate event. So all 9 weak events since 1959 produced below avg snow for the DC area. Not that big of a deal to me as any winter can be a ratter these days. I never expect 'normal' snowfall anymore. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 3 hours ago, winter_warlock said: Sterling watches the storm for the 12th.... Looking ahead a little further, the aforementioned trough diving out of the Pacific Northwest moves into the Central Plains Tuesday. This will set the stage for a strong surface low to develop late Tuesday into Wednesday over the Arklatex region. This will be the system to watch in terms of any potential hazardous weather as we head into the middle/later portion of next week. The Canadian and Euro remain a bit more robust with a potent trough that becomes negatively- tilted over our region. However, the GFS is much less impressive, only showing a passing shortwave, similar to the early-week system but further south. Will have to see how things trend in the days ahead, but this continues to bear watching. Certainly the weather discussions have become more interesting since Garrett County was added to Stirling's coverage area. Kidding aside, outside of 6 days anything is possible - and phrases such as potent trough and negatively-tilted are music to most of our ears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 EPS support is lacking for substantial snow next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: To my eye, all 3 ensembles appear in the process of redeveloping western ridging at the end of their runs. GEPS is fastest and GEFS is slowest, with EPS in the middle. Also been a notable guidance trend toward more ridging over the pole the last couple days and it continues through the ensemble periods. That can’t hurt. Only the op GFS and Euro erode the west coast ridge in the long run it seems. Evening else, even the EPS and GEFS, maintain or reinforce the -EPO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Icon trying for late next week. Kind of develops right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Icon trying for late next week. Kind of develops right over us. ICON is a good model, IMO. Like seeing it on board. Can’t hurt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: ICON is a good model, IMO. Like seeing it on board. Can’t hurt. If it looked like that 24 hours before it was suppose to start I'd be nervous AF. A system that starts cranking over us is always playing with fire lol It will look different in 12 hours anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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