December Medium/ Long Range

[87storms]

Seems like Dec is trying to show its hand but early season is always volatile. If the warm can truly gets kicked, confidence increases. So how does it snow? Probably something like the early Dec 2013 storm. A good fresh cold blast and a quick follower. Idk about the next 10 days. It could line up like that but we prob need a deeper carve in advance. 
 

Had my first snow chase to nearby Clarksburg in my Jeep (bought it in Nov ‘13) during that early Dec storm. Took some video and pretty sure that area is now an entire community near the outlets. Several inches fell. That whole winter was top shelf for this area.

[87storms]

The thread is here

We’ve had slower starts to winter, that’s for sure.

[nj2va]

I was somewhat surprised to see the 18z GEFS looking like this given the shift on the OP models today.  At least something to track vs a shit the blinds pattern.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I was somewhat surprised to see the 18z GEFS looking like this given the shift on the OP models today.  At least something to track vs a shit the blinds pattern.

Yep, its something to track then we take a break until around Dec 20-23 or so. 

[T. August]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I was somewhat surprised to see the 18z GEFS looking like this given the shift on the OP models today.  At least something to track vs a shit the blinds pattern.

Yeah I looked earlier - I think there was 1 good hit for that time period. You’d think there would be outcomes more favorable than the OP, but alas, not so much.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Yeah I looked earlier - I think there was 1 good hit for that time period. You’d think there would be outcomes more favorable than the OP, but alas, not so much.

Wheels up to 00z!

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But it wouldn’t be a bust. Those are two of the top analogs so wouldn’t that be expected? 

This current pattern threw a bone to the snow weenies, you have to remember that a month ago a lot of people here announced last rites in regards to winter.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The thread is here

I cannot help but see the overlap between this and sports fandom!

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

This current pattern threw a bone to the snow weenies, you have to remember that a month ago a lot of people here announced last rites in regards to winter.

Exactly. This cold period came as a surprise for most. I think there will be a few more surprises (more variability) this winter. We just need to time something perfectly or extend one of these cold periods long enough for something to happen. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But why tho?

Weenies will cling onto anything that will validate their snow fantasies until it either verifies or the rug is pulled. Even if it's a <1% long shot some of them will take it as gospel until 6 hours later and the new run has it completely vanish.

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

This current pattern threw a bone to the snow weenies, you have to remember that a month ago a lot of people here announced last rites in regards to winter.

 

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Exactly. This cold period came as a surprise for most. I think there will be a few more surprises (more variability) this winter. We just need to time something perfectly or extend one of these cold periods long enough for something to happen. 

But why?  All the bad low snow analogs had a cold period in December.  Do we not remember how excited everyone was in Dec 2016 and 2022 leading into those two snowless winters?   How is this winter playing out any different so far? 
 

Dec 2016

Dec 2022

[psuhoffman]

FWIW 

8 cold neutral or weak cold enso seasons during a -PDO.  These analogs were in almost everyone’s set that I saw  

Dec

The rest of winter

every single one was below avg snowfall. So why was this December cold unexpected and furthermore why does it seem to have raised expectations?  Isn’t this just exactly what should be expected and since none of the other cold December’s lead to a snowy winter why should we think this one will? 

[JenkinsJinkies]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

How is this winter playing out any different so far? 
 

You got 4 inches in November.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You got 4 inches in November.

There was measurable snow in November or Early December up here in many of those analogs. Didn’t lead to a snowy winter. 

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

But why?  All the bad low snow analogs had a cold period in December.  Do we not remember how excited everyone was in Dec 2016 and 2022 leading into those two snowless winters?   How is this winter playing out any different so far? 
 

Dec 2016

Dec 2022

Because this cold period wasn’t well predicted, and we were coming off a record warm November. 

And I’m not saying we’re getting a snowy winter. I said I think we’ll see more variability. 

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

FWIW 

8 cold neutral or weak cold enso seasons during a -PDO.  These analogs were in almost everyone’s set that I saw  

Dec

The rest of winter

every single one was below avg snowfall. So why was this December cold unexpected and furthermore why does it seem to have raised expectations?  Isn’t this just exactly what should be expected and since none of the other cold December’s lead to a snowy winter why should we think this one will? 

Your analog mapping seems to agree pretty well with Chuck's "roll forward" methodology: some cold in December followed by SER city in Jan-Feb.  That makes me sad.

[Jebman]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Because this cold period wasn’t well predicted, and we were coming off a record warm November. 

And I’m not saying we’re getting a snowy winter. I said I think we’ll see more variability. 

More variability with more opportunities to max out on snow potential.

Hey you guys may have some snow showers Thursday morning!

[winter_warlock]

So far GFS out to 30 hours. Not much change so far

[winter_warlock]

Very small subtle  changes thru 42

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Very small subtle  changes thru 42

What are you tracking, exactly?

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What are you tracking, exactly?

Storm for the 12th 

[winter_warlock]

Subtle changes thru 66

[Ji]

What are you tracking, exactly?

A secs next week for the i95 weenie

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

A secs next week for the i95 weenie

But why are we doing pbp for something 9-10 days away?

[Maestrobjwa]

44 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Because this cold period wasn’t well predicted, and we were coming off a record warm November. 

And I’m not saying we’re getting a snowy winter. I said I think we’ll see more variability. 

But the analogs say SER through and through...that would hardly be variability, would it? I know analogs technically don't HAVE to mean set in stone, but what indicates that more variability would be there?

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But why are we doing pbp for something 9-10 days away?

Nothing else better to do lol

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

FWIW 

8 cold neutral or weak cold enso seasons during a -PDO.  These analogs were in almost everyone’s set that I saw  

Dec

The rest of winter

every single one was below avg snowfall. So why was this December cold unexpected and furthermore why does it seem to have raised expectations?  Isn’t this just exactly what should be expected and since none of the other cold December’s lead to a snowy winter why should we think this one will? 

I'd like us just once to have a good analog. Feels like every year now the top analogs are crappy...but then again when you're in a -PDO cycle how many good ones actually exist? Lol

P.S. Folks are annoyed by my lols but it's in place of the crying laughing emoji I use often that's not available on here.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd like us just once to have a good analog. Feels like every year now the top analogs are crappy...but then again when you're in a -PDO cycle how many good ones actually exist? Lol

P.S. Folks are annoyed by my lols but it's in place of the crying laughing emoji I use often that's not available on here.

To be honest  when ever they post a good favorable analog.. it usually  don't pan out lol then people get discouraged  and start saying the " winters over" crap lol

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But the analogs say SER through and through...that would hardly be variability, would it? I know analogs technically don't HAVE to mean set in stone, but what indicates that more variability would be there?

Covered this in my outlook. We may have some SE ridging, but unlike the last 2 years Canada is unlikely to be torched so cold air source should be nearby for most of the winter. 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS out to hour 130ish seems to have a weaker and slightly farther north south wave but not sure how the NS will interact with it