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December Medium/ Long Range

Terpeast

By Terpeast,
in Mid Atlantic

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 9:27 PM, WxUSAF said:

1989 is not remembered fondly around here because we missed some big storms north and south. But there was some snow and it was damn cold. Could have been pretty epic with subtle changes. Let’s just hope we don’t get January-February 1990…

 

IMG_8988.jpeg

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1989 was that incredible mid Nov thru Dec 

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

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WxUSAF
WxUSAF

Yeah that looks nice. GEFS pretty similar, just less intense in the height anomalies. Both show us BN for the duration and precip bumps up starting late next week. 

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

the timeframe around the 5th looks conducive for something bigger regionwide... anomalous 50/50, a decaying block over the Davis Strait, and persistent cross-polar flow. combine with an active STJ for

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2024 at 12:39 AM, WxUSAF said:

If it was January or February, we’d be looking at 10s for highs and lows near 0 probably, even without snowcover. I’ll be quite impressed if we get a sub-freezing high out of the first week of December. Very impressed if DCA manages that, but I’d bet against it. 

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Right now it looks like a high of 28 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

If the advertised h5 pattern and associated cold verifies, our chance for a storm in early December will likely come via an Alberta Clipper. If we get this sort of amplification, there very well could be a strong shortwave that digs and induces a moderate storm- and maybe even bombs as it approaches the coast.

1733551200-sym7nbgE2HE.png

1733680800-fvYWwAsSDcY.png

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CAPE

CAPE

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For the late week system, its difficult to see a win scenario for frozen in our region imo. The GFS has trended south with the track, but also flat and weak. The more northern track on most guidance(most likely) is more amped and milder. There just isn't any real cold air out in front and there is an absence of HP to the north to transport colder air in even with a favorable track. The cold HP is back in the N central part of the country, so cold air will come in behind.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2024 at 12:31 PM, CAPE said:

For the late week system, its difficult to see a win scenario for frozen in our region imo. The GFS has trended south with the track, but also flat and weak. The more northern track on most guidance(most likely) is more amped and milder. There just isn't any real cold air out in front and there is an absence of HP to the north to transport colder air in even with a favorable track. The cold HP is back in the N central part of the country, so cold air will come in behind.

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Agreed, not sure there’s a legit path to victory. Only thing I can imagine is if it splits into two storms, with the first one strong enough to pull just enough cold air behind it so a weaker second storm (thanksgiving night or Friday) can throw us some light snow. But I haven’t seen that on any guidance as even a one off solution.

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CAPE

CAPE

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  On 11/24/2024 at 3:32 PM, Terpeast said:

GEPS/EPS still has a signal for Dec 3-7, with maybe a clipper on Dec 2. GEFS looks totally dry.

Still far out, so its probably noise. Ens haven’t budged on the cold. 

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12z GFS has a weak clipper with a bit of snow verbatim next Sunday. Maybe a few days later there will be a better chance for a NS shortwave to dig and sharpen the trough more.

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dailylurker

dailylurker

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2024 at 6:15 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey I'll take a clipper in any form! If it happens it'll be like Jurassic park seeing something from ancient times coming back to life, lol

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Oh great. I can't wait to be trolled by clippers again. Seems like we had a swarm of them in the early 2000's and they always ended up trashcan toppers lol

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2024 at 6:01 PM, NorthArlington101 said:


More importantly it has the Sunday clipper! Very quick hitting but I’d take a ground-whitener.

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Its 'there' on the GEFS and Euro ens mean too, but barely. Looks like most of the moisture gets wrung out over the western highlands, which is typical of a weak clipper. Snow in the air and maybe a whitening of the ground in the lowlands in early Dec is better than cold and dry.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
  On 11/24/2024 at 6:45 PM, CAPE said:

Stronger signal on the 12z GEFS for the 8th. 12z Euro ens hinting too. 0z Euro op was real close, as I posted this morning.

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1733616000-NkM3GmNXW3o.png

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Just make it happen outside of the Dec 12-17th period.   I NEVER travel from Dec 15 to March 15, but I got hoodwinked into doing it this year with the thought that winter was gonna suck.   Still probably will, but of course December might be THE lit month. 

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