December Medium/ Long Range

[WEATHER53]

On 11/22/2024 at 4:27 PM, WxUSAF said:

1989 is not remembered fondly around here because we missed some big storms north and south. But there was some snow and it was damn cold. Could have been pretty epic with subtle changes. Let’s just hope we don’t get January-February 1990…

 

1989 was that incredible mid Nov thru Dec 

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Dare I say Siberian cold air headed our way?

Mongolian Siberian ice buckets 

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If it was January or February, we’d be looking at 10s for highs and lows near 0 probably, even without snowcover. I’ll be quite impressed if we get a sub-freezing high out of the first week of December. Very impressed if DCA manages that, but I’d bet against it. 

Right now it looks like a high of 28 

[TSSN+]

Now the gfs is a whiff to the south. Oh I love these models. 

[CAPE]

If the advertised h5 pattern and associated cold verifies, our chance for a storm in early December will likely come via an Alberta Clipper. If we get this sort of amplification, there very well could be a strong shortwave that digs and induces a moderate storm- and maybe even bombs as it approaches the coast.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO and GFS Storm position for 10am Th.  

[CAPE]

For the late week system, its difficult to see a win scenario for frozen in our region imo. The GFS has trended south with the track, but also flat and weak. The more northern track on most guidance(most likely) is more amped and milder. There just isn't any real cold air out in front and there is an absence of HP to the north to transport colder air in even with a favorable track. The cold HP is back in the N central part of the country, so cold air will come in behind.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, CAPE said:

For the late week system, its difficult to see a win scenario for frozen in our region imo. The GFS has trended south with the track, but also flat and weak. The more northern track on most guidance(most likely) is more amped and milder. There just isn't any real cold air out in front and there is an absence of HP to the north to transport colder air in even with a favorable track. The cold HP is back in the N central part of the country, so cold air will come in behind.

Agreed, not sure there’s a legit path to victory. Only thing I can imagine is if it splits into two storms, with the first one strong enough to pull just enough cold air behind it so a weaker second storm (thanksgiving night or Friday) can throw us some light snow. But I haven’t seen that on any guidance as even a one off solution.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS throws out a few ensemble members with snow through the weekend period.  Nothing else to track, so will watch for trends. (It is better than 0Z but one run is not a trend.)

[WxUSAF]

Ah, tis the season for Will to post maps showing me with a 1-5% chance of snow between now and ragnarok.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ah, tis the season for Will to post maps showing me with a 1-5% chance of snow between now and ragnarok.

Yay lake effect and mountain upslope snow as we get cold and dry

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO and GFS Storm position for 10am Th.  

split the difference and this is closer but without a cold high up north this screams temps 39-47 with rain. 

[Terpeast]

GEPS/EPS still has a signal for Dec 3-7, with maybe a clipper on Dec 2. GEFS looks totally dry.

Still far out, so its probably noise. Ens haven’t budged on the cold. 

[North Balti Zen]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Ah, tis the season for Will to post maps showing me with a 1-5% chance of snow between now and ragnarok.

It’s usually as hot as ragnarok when precip approaches so that checks out.

[NorthArlington101]

Both the GFS and CMC suggest a clipper is a possibility next Sunday. Probably our next “real” shot with the Turkey Day shenanigans on life support.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

GEPS/EPS still has a signal for Dec 3-7, with maybe a clipper on Dec 2. GEFS looks totally dry.

Still far out, so its probably noise. Ens haven’t budged on the cold. 

12z GFS has a weak clipper with a bit of snow verbatim next Sunday. Maybe a few days later there will be a better chance for a NS shortwave to dig and sharpen the trough more.

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Ah, tis the season for Will to post maps showing me with a 1-5% chance of snow between now and ragnarok.

We’re back baby!!!

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS has a weak clipper with a bit of snow verbatim next Sunday. Maybe a few days later there will be a better chance for a NS shortwave to dig and sharpen the trough more.

Weak clipper...would be nice for the Ravens game 

[Lowershoresadness]

is ragnarok near that place short pump?

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

is ragnarok near that place short pump?

Think it’s DCA 

[CAPE]

12z Euro snows on the coast of SC/NC on the 4th.

[NorthArlington101]

12z Euro snows on the coast of SC/NC on the 4th.

More importantly it has the Sunday clipper! Very quick hitting but I’d take a ground-whitener.

[TSSN+]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z Euro snows on the coast of SC/NC on the 4th.

SC getting snow before us would make sense lol 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

More importantly it has the Sunday clipper! Very quick hitting but I’d take a ground-whitener.

Hey I'll take a clipper in any form! If it happens it'll be like Jurassic park seeing something from ancient times coming back to life, lol

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey I'll take a clipper in any form! If it happens it'll be like Jurassic park seeing something from ancient times coming back to life, lol

Oh great. I can't wait to be trolled by clippers again. Seems like we had a swarm of them in the early 2000's and they always ended up trashcan toppers lol

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

More importantly it has the Sunday clipper! Very quick hitting but I’d take a ground-whitener.

Its 'there' on the GEFS and Euro ens mean too, but barely. Looks like most of the moisture gets wrung out over the western highlands, which is typical of a weak clipper. Snow in the air and maybe a whitening of the ground in the lowlands in early Dec is better than cold and dry.

[poolz1]

EPS continues the idea of bringing blocking back in over GL after D10. Massive west coast ridge with the bridge to GL intensifying through the end of the run. Pretty impressive look.

[CAPE]

Stronger signal on the 12z GEFS for the 8th. 12z Euro ens hinting too. 0z Euro op was real close, as I posted this morning.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Stronger signal on the 12z GEFS for the 8th. 12z Euro ens hinting too. 0z Euro op was real close, as I posted this morning.

Just make it happen outside of the Dec 12-17th period.   I NEVER travel from Dec 15 to March 15, but I got hoodwinked into doing it this year with the thought that winter was gonna suck.   Still probably will, but of course December might be THE lit month. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

EPS continues the idea of bringing blocking back in over GL after D10. Massive west coast ridge with the bridge to GL intensifying through the end of the run. Pretty impressive look.

GEPS is also building h5 heights in the NAO domain at the end of the run.