December Medium/ Long Range

[Benjamn3]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

MJO is going into 6 the week before Christmas.  Hopefully, it will race through it so we can have a chance in January.  Latest EURO weeklies look like the pattern could improve after the holidays.  But that is the way it looks today, maybe the models will flip again by the end of next week to something more favorable for the holidays.

I’m honestly not the best at reading much anything better than a surface map, correct me if I’m wrong, but it looks average to slightly above climo what I’m hearing and seeing. Which of course needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. I just love a cold Christmas week (I’m sure we all do) , my father passed when I was 19 in 08, but his birthday is that week on top of Christmas and I just enjoy the nostalgia of it being cold like when he was alive. 

[Terpeast]

GFS and CMC shifted away from the follow up wave idea. Very much looks like snow is not in the cards this round, other than the potential little squall tomorrow morning early. 

Euro has been rock solid, and has been the better model lately (despite the flak it gets). Verification scores support this.  

[Ji]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

GFS and CMC shifted away from the follow up wave idea. Very much looks like snow is not in the cards this round, other than the potential little squall tomorrow morning early. 

Euro has been rock solid, and has been the better model lately (despite the flak it gets). Verification scores support this.  

only reason it gets flak is because it never shows snow.

[winter_warlock]

Intresting read from sterling  this morning.. they are watching next week...  

 

" Looking ahead a little further, the aforementioned trough diving out

of the Pacific Northwest moves into the Central Plains Tuesday. This

will set the stage for a strong surface low to develop late Tuesday

into Wednesday over the Arklatex region. This will be the system to

watch in terms of any potential hazardous weather as we head into

the middle/later portion of next week. However, this event is too

far out to have a good handle on at this point given several points

of uncertainty regarding timing, track, trough orientation, etc."

[winter_warlock]

Euro aifs shifted south a bit

 

 

[Kmlwx]

21 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Intresting read from sterling  this morning.. they are watching next week...  

 

" Looking ahead a little further, the aforementioned trough diving out

of the Pacific Northwest moves into the Central Plains Tuesday. This

will set the stage for a strong surface low to develop late Tuesday

into Wednesday over the Arklatex region. This will be the system to

watch in terms of any potential hazardous weather as we head into

the middle/later portion of next week. However, this event is too

far out to have a good handle on at this point given several points

of uncertainty regarding timing, track, trough orientation, etc."

If anything it'll be severe

Look at CSU MLP 

 

[Alfoman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

GFS and CMC shifted away from the follow up wave idea. Very much looks like snow is not in the cards this round, other than the potential little squall tomorrow morning early. 

Euro has been rock solid, and has been the better model lately (despite the flak it gets). Verification scores support this.  

Would not say it is out of the cards completely just yet - amount of members showing a secondary wave sliding off the cost doubled on the 6Z GEFS. 

 

This is a delicate balancing act between the initial low in question and the real potential right behind it. The GFS and CMC have transitioned into a quicker phase of shortwaves out west, instead of slowing things down by keeping energy dragged out in the SW. If we can slow the phase and have it dig further, generating more time for the cold to filter back in post storm #1...there could be something here. Lot has to go right here though as always.

 

[T. August]

GFS at 162 is interesting. I don’t think it will do it this time but it’s better looking.

edit: it did not

[TSSN+]

Squeak that little more se please lol

 

 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Squeak that little more se please lol

 

 

Looks like a nice shift south east hope it continues..   still got 8 days to shift.. good spot!!

[TSSN+]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Looks like a nice shift south east hope it continues..   still got 8 days to shift.. good spot!!

I’m sure 18z will be over Green Bay. 

[winter_warlock]

Cmc looks better thru 156 looks like it digs further south. To my untrained eye

[winter_warlock]

Fwiw icon farther east 

[T. August]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Cmc looks better thru 156 looks like it digs further south. To my untrained eye

Might scoot ots, but at least it’s an improvement 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Might scoot ots, but at least it’s an improvement 

Agreed

. All we can ask for  170 hours out lol

[winter_warlock]

Much improved on the cmc. Definitely  a shift south.   Good place to be 180 hours out.     Nice shift on all models so far!!   Can't wait to see euro

[WxUSAF]

GGEM/icon track with gfs strength is sort of the mix we need to have a chance outside the mountains 

[T. August]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM/icon track with gfs strength is sort of the mix we need to have a chance outside the mountains 

A few decent hits on the gefs - kind of what you’re talking about.

[winter_warlock]

Fwiw.   Difference  between 06z and 12 z. Gefs

 

[soadforecasterx]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM/icon track with gfs strength is sort of the mix we need to have a chance outside the mountains 

seems like one of those set ups when we need it amped but then it will cut. when its weak its OTS. seems like a loss either way. 

[WxUSAF]

It’s a foregone conclusion that one of next weeks AN anomalies will be greater in magnitude than any of the recent BN anomalies, right?

[Terpeast]

Key thing is we need that weekend clipper to trend further south, to get the boundary south for it to snow here. 

Can get it done, but we need it to trend for multiple runs over multiple days.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s a foregone conclusion that one of next weeks AN anomalies will be greater in magnitude than any of the recent BN anomalies, right?

Yeah, I mentally add +5 to warm anomalies a week out. If next tuesday is forecast to hit 65, then I’d say we’re gonna push 70

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

seems like one of those set ups when we need it amped but then it will cut. when its weak its OTS. seems like a loss either way. 

Great post!!

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s a foregone conclusion that one of next weeks AN anomalies will be greater in magnitude than any of the recent BN anomalies, right?

Sadly, yes. Wouldn't shock me if we all spike in the 70s for DCA.

[T. August]

I’m bored as hell right now so forgive me, but the euro moved away from the cutter and actually gets frozen in the region.

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, T. August said:

I’m bored as hell right now so forgive me, but the euro moved away from the cutter and actually gets frozen in the region.

Looking like all models trended our way  for the 12 z run...  hope it continues!!

[SnowenOutThere]

Euro run reminded me of when PSU talked about storms having next to no frozen on their northwestern side except for a small 50-100 mile width. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM/icon track with gfs strength is sort of the mix we need to have a chance outside the mountains 

 

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Key thing is we need that weekend clipper to trend further south, to get the boundary south for it to snow here. 

Can get it done, but we need it to trend for multiple runs over multiple days.

 

15 minutes ago, T. August said:

I’m bored as hell right now so forgive me, but the euro moved away from the cutter and actually gets frozen in the region.

Euro doesn’t go to gfs strength, but kinda the idea and does strengthen the precursors enough to drag in cold air.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

 

Euro doesn’t go to gfs strength, but kinda the idea and does strengthen the precursors enough to drag in cold air.

It's a start.  A definite  nice trend on all models