December Medium/ Long Range

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

His most recent tweet pointed to -EAMT with a barfing emoji. It sounds like he was capitulating out of frustration.

Honestly I’m confused about his assessments in EAMT because he says the high pressure NW of himalayas with low pressure in the lee is -EAMT. Yet he also referred to the same pressure configuration as +EAMT in both Dec 2018 and in 2020-21. So which is it? 

So no 2014? 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

So no 2014? 

My analog years:

• 1999-00
• 2008-09
• 2010-11
• 2017-18
• 2021-22
• 2022-23

So yeah, no I don’t think so. Maybe a 2021-22 though

 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1864031296210796596?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

And John’s in the thread throwing gas on the winters cancelled fire wow. In 24 hours he went from “don’t worry it’s just a temporary minor warm up” and throwing around 2014 analogs to “winters in big trouble” lol. 
 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

My analog years:

• 1999-00
• 2008-09
• 2010-11
• 2017-18
• 2021-22
• 2022-23

So yeah, no I don’t think so. Maybe a 2021-22 though

 

They were all in my list I looked at. 2 of them made my top 5. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

And John’s in the thread throwing gas on the winters cancelled fire wow. In 24 hours he went from “don’t worry it’s just a temporary minor warm up” and throwing around 2014 analogs to “winters in big trouble” lol. 
 

 

Me personally. I think the whiney " winters over crap" people spout out. Is just plain stupid in early December. Especially  since most of us don't even see any real snow till usually January  or February 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Me personally. I think the whiney " winters over crap" people spout out. Is just plain stupid in early December. Especially  since most of us don't even see any real snow till usually January  or February 

In fairness he is in NC where they’ve had no measurable snow for 3 years and it increasingly takes an incredibly anomalous pattern to get any chance of meaningful snow .  He might also be simply hinting that his forecast for a very cold and very snowy winter is in trouble not necessarily implying it’s gonna be a total did. 
 

He wasn’t specific at all so we can’t say exactly what he means. But it was a very very depressing thread that’s for sure. He definitely changed his tune. 

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In fairness he is in NC where they’ve had no measurable snow for 3 years and it increasingly takes an incredibly anomalous pattern to get any chance of meaningful snow .  He might also be simply hinting that his forecast for a very cold and very snowy winter is in trouble not necessarily implying it’s gonna be a total did. 
 

He wasn’t specific at all so we can’t say exactly what he means. But it was a very very depressing thread that’s for sure. He definitely changed his tune. 

 Well I can see being discouraged  living in NC.  So I'll give him a pass lol but.  In general I think the depressing posts  "winters over " crap  is just ludicrous  to say... especially  on December 3rd lol  just my opinion  which according  to my 1st wife... doesn't mean a whole lot lmaoo

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In fairness he is in NC where they’ve had no measurable snow for 3 years and it increasingly takes an incredibly anomalous pattern to get any chance of meaningful snow .  He might also be simply hinting that his forecast for a very cold and very snowy winter is in trouble not necessarily implying it’s gonna be a total did. 
 

He wasn’t specific at all so we can’t say exactly what he means. But it was a very very depressing thread that’s for sure. He definitely changed his tune. 

Did he ever actually make a specific prediction of a cold and snowy winter?  He mentioned the -EPO a good bit which certainly has cold overtones, but I don't recall seeing specific predictions about the winter per se.

[brooklynwx99]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And John’s in the thread throwing gas on the winters cancelled fire wow. In 24 hours he went from “don’t worry it’s just a temporary minor warm up” and throwing around 2014 analogs to “winters in big trouble” lol. 
 

 

the twitter special. can’t make it up

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 Well I can see being discouraged  living in NC.  So I'll give him a pass lol but.  In general I think the depressing posts  "winters over " crap  is just ludicrous  to say... especially  on December 3rd lol  just my opinion  which according  to my 1st wife... doesn't mean a whole lot lmaoo

I live in NC (I hang around here because the SE forum is mostly dead unless there is an actual storm imminent, which is rare these days).  It is indeed a depressing time for snow lovers here.

I have to push back a bit about the pessimism being ludicrous.  I've lost count by now but I think something like 5 of the last 7 winters have had a very bad Pacific pattern set in for early/mid December and last through 6 - 12 weeks with some relaxations.  In those years the core of winter prime climo was devastated.  So seeing the guidance start to point to similar occurrence now I think definitely justifies concern.   

[winter_warlock]

i never claimed to be a poet  but I leave this right here lol......

 

[cbmclean]

Looking at what the latest ensemble guidance is showing:

-18Z GEFS At 384 it looks like there may be hints of ridging starting to develop in the EPO domain and maybe a bit in the PNA domain.  Looks like an incipient trough forming in the GOA.  Not sure if that is good for us or not.

-18Z GEPS at 384 has similar hits of ridging maybe staring in the EPO domain.  No GOA trough yet.

Both still have an eastern ridge though which is no bueno.

Of course still waiting for the 0Z EPS.  What does everyone else think?

[winter_warlock]

19 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Looking at what the latest ensemble guidance is showing:

-18Z GEFS At 384 it looks like there may be hints of ridging starting to develop in the EPO domain and maybe a bit in the PNA domain.  Looks like an incipient trough forming in the GOA.  Not sure if that is good for us or not.

-18Z GEPS at 384 has similar hits of ridging maybe staring in the EPO domain.  No GOA trough yet.

Both still have an eastern ridge though which is no bueno.

Of course still waiting for the 0Z EPS.  What does everyone else think?

 Io wouldnt trust anything at hour 384 lol just my opinion

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Io wouldnt trust anything at hour 384 lol just my opinion

I don't trust it per see, but I think it marginally superior to see good signs at 384 rather than continued crap.  I have known several occurrences when a shit the blinds pattern appeared at 384 and marched regally up in time.  January 2020 is an excellent example.

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Looking at what the latest ensemble guidance is showing:

-18Z GEFS At 384 it looks like there may be hints of ridging starting to develop in the EPO domain and maybe a bit in the PNA domain.  Looks like an incipient trough forming in the GOA.  Not sure if that is good for us or not.

-18Z GEPS at 384 has similar hits of ridging maybe staring in the EPO domain.  No GOA trough yet.

Both still have an eastern ridge though which is no bueno.

Of course still waiting for the 0Z EPS.  What does everyone else think?

Yes, we’ll go milder for most of the month or even the rest of the winter, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as some are making it out to be. I think there will be more variability this winter as we’re already seeing chinks in the -PDO/Nina armor. 

This 10 day cold period is probably the first out of 3-5 cold periods that’ll likely happen this winter. Ofc the minute it hits 60 degrees sometime in the next week, many will say “TORCH! Winter cancel!” 

For me, nothing has changed. It’s funny when it got cold over Thanksgiving, people were upping their snowfall guesses in that contest thread… while I stuck with my original guess (5-12” for the forum outside of the mountains). 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Did he ever actually make a specific prediction of a cold and snowy winter?  He mentioned the -EPO a good bit which certainly has cold overtones, but I don't recall seeing specific predictions about the winter per se.

Does he ever?  But he was the champion of the 2014 talk online that’s for sure. He was maybe the most bullish in how he talked about winter whether he made a detailed specific call or not.  

[Ji]

Does he ever?  But he was the champion of the 2014 talk online that’s for sure. He was maybe the most bullish in how he talked about winter whether he made a detailed specific call or not.  

Sounds like there is no point in tracking winter anymore till the -pdo flips

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is what you call a massive difference from a few days ago. 

It's no surprise the long range went warmer with the medium range trending like that. A lot of people got excited about the Winter because of this 2-week cold period, but the same thing happened last year when the NAO was super negative in early December and 2022 had a -NAO/-EPO December too.  I think we will make it to Christmas without accumulating snow. Maybe hope that precip tomorrow night is snow. 

[cbmclean]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is what you call a massive difference from a few days ago. 

It's no surprise the long range went warmer with the medium range trending like that. A lot of people got excited about the Winter because of this 2-week cold period, but the same thing happened last year and the background state, especially in the Pacific is not favorable. I think we will make it to Christmas without accumulating snow. 

You whooped us again Chuck.  Any thoughts on after Xmas?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

You whooped us again Chuck.  Any thoughts on after Xmas?

Thanks! Phoenix had major late Summer/early Fall heat wave, breaking their 3-week record by +7F! When I rolled that forward, I got a +PNA composite for Dec and January, so maybe January has a chance at a cold shot. I was getting a lot of +NAO roll forwards for January though. The CONUS was actually record warmest Dec 2023 to July 2024, and a list of 30 analogs gave a strong signal for the rest of the year - above to very above average through March 2025, with August and December being the only pattern breaks. August did hit, as it was a cooler month, and early December was cold too, but the strong roll forward was pretty warm for Jan-Feb-March, with a SE ridge.  I would say below average chances this year, but if the NAO is going to be positive, that has been correlating with -EPO, so watch for some 5-7 day cold periods. 

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Thanks! Phoenix had major late Summer/early Fall heat wave, breaking their 3-week record by +7F! When I rolled that forward, I got a +PNA composite for Dec and January, so maybe January has a chance at a cold shot. I was getting a lot of +NAO roll forwards for January though. The CONUS was actually record warmest Dec 2023 to July 2024, and a list of 30 analogs gave a strong signal for the rest of the year - above to very above average through March 2025, with August and December being the only pattern breaks. August did hit, as it was a cooler month, and early December was cold too, but the strong roll forward was pretty warm for Jan-Feb-March, with a SE ridge.  I would say below average chances this year, but if the NAO is going to be positive, that has been correlating with -EPO, so watch for some 5-7 day cold periods. 

Can you explain what you mean when you say you "rolled something forward"?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Can you explain what you mean when you say you "rolled something forward"?

Matching analogs for a time period, taking them and seeing what they did in the future. We had a really strong +EPO pattern Dec 2023 - July 2024, so I went back to the 1940s and found 30 best matches to that pattern. Then when looking at what they did in the future, there was actually a +4F mean for much of the Midwest and East for the following November-March (2024-2025). A +4F signal for 40% of the dataset (30/75 years) over 5-months is strong. 

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yes, we’ll go milder for most of the month or even the rest of the winter, but I don’t think it’s as clear cut as some are making it out to be. I think there will be more variability this winter as we’re already seeing chinks in the -PDO/Nina armor. 

This 10 day cold period is probably the first out of 3-5 cold periods that’ll likely happen this winter. Ofc the minute it hits 60 degrees sometime in the next week, many will say “TORCH! Winter cancel!” 

For me, nothing has changed. It’s funny when it got cold over Thanksgiving, people were upping their snowfall guesses in that contest thread… while I stuck with my original guess (5-12” for the forum outside of the mountains). 

folks are just gonna have to get accustomed to the fact that we'll hit the 60s a lot in winter going forward.  doesn't mean we won't get cold and snowy periods as well.

[stormy]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1864031296210796596?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

JB was talking about La Nina coming to life and screwing up the MJO last week.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

SOI has gone strongly positive for the first time since March 2023. 30-day is approaching +10, after being below +5 all year.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

The medium range pattern actually looks a lot like +SOI Dec in the PNA and NAO regions

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Let's see if the +SOI pattern holds into January. Things become more uniform Nina in Jan-Feb vs Dec with indices such as that. 

I found it interesting that the composite was cold Dec in the East for +SOI, and it's been pretty strongly positive since Nov 10th. It's been a +PNA pattern, but the SOI for that little point in time favored it.  If you put it all together, it's going to look at H5 like that Dec map. 

[Benjamn3]

Do we shit the blinds for Xmas week yet? It’s a yearly tradition ya know. 

[winter_warlock]

39 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Do we shit the blinds for Xmas week yet? It’s a yearly tradition ya know. 

 Still 3 weeks out.. no one knows lol

[Kevin Reilly]

8 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

i never claimed to be a poet  but I leave this right here lol......

 

Don't worry it will be 60 degrees soon. 

[Weather Will]

MJO is going into 6 the week before Christmas.  Hopefully, it will race through it so we can have a chance in January.  Latest EURO weeklies look like the pattern could improve after the holidays.  But that is the way it looks today, maybe the models will flip again by the end of next week to something more favorable for the holidays.