December Medium/ Long Range

[rclab]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If we get 50 days of winter that have BN temps, I’ll take the over on 1” of snow. 

In our inner city, UHI blessed bastion on the coastal plain we would probably have to combine the BN days of the last three winters to approach the 50. Even we have options. Stay well, as always …

 

 

[winter_warlock]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but like most of the analogs it’s a dry cold. The snow mean is really low and look at the control which has similar temps lol 

basically has us sitting at the midpoint of winter below avg temps and under 1” of snow to show for it. 

Snowfall maps. Any longer  then 5 days are horribly inaccurate.   Temp  and thermal profiles are a lil more accurate in long term and even then they are inaccurate  also

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Snowfall maps. Any longer  then 5 days are horribly inaccurate.   Temp  and thermal profiles are a lil more accurate in long term 

Snow maps are pretty useless imo until there is a persistent storm signal on the means.

[Ji]

no one kills a positive post more than PSU

[IronTy]

5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I remember when I used to have a lot of respect for JB and I learned a ton when he was on Accuweather. Now he’s just a hype artist with a clear agenda. Sad 

I give JB a hard time but I've been paying for WB for years and pretty faithfully watch his videos.  Unlike most of the dildo mets on Twitter JB is usually pretty clear and concise at explaining things and is entertaining to listen to.  His AccuWeather background clearly helps his presentation.  And you gotta respect how much he loves weather despite his weenie cold bias which he openly admits these days.  

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but like most of the analogs it’s a dry cold. The snow mean is really low and look at the control which has similar temps lol 

basically has us sitting at the midpoint of winter below avg temps and under 1” of snow to show for it. 

The problem is the snow map matches pretty close to the drought map.  So it's believable.  At least until the Siberian Traps reawaken.  

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

no one kills a positive post more than PSU

Maybe, but this is kinda rich coming from you lol.

[AdamHLG]

16 active members at happy hour says all I need to know about the current models  :--(

[Weather Will]

WB EPS December 3rd control run  is better....I agree with the general premise: give us cold air and at least we can say it feels like winter. and we have a chance to luck into a snow storm.

[stormy]

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe, but this is kinda rich coming from you lol.

PSU is a special character that we tolerate. I gain special insight from his posts occasionally but sometimes go to bed after tuning out.   I'm sure he does the same with my posts...............

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

These cycles are the main drivers of our snowfall...but unfortunately within these cycles there is a clear diminishing trend.  The current bad cycle is worse than the previous one by about 20% and that good period in the 2000's was not as good as the previous time the Pacific and Atlantic both cooperated simultaneously in the 1960s.  The most troubling aspect of that period from 2000-2016 was that the center of the positive snowfall anomalies shifted north several hundred miles from where it was in previous similar periods...we were barely above average snowfall for that period while places like Philly to Boston were running at 150% or more of avg.  And not too far south of us actually were below avg for the period...

In short while there are still these up and down cycles we are getting dangerously close to the "you're just too far south for it to matter" line 

2000-2016 were down? Wow it certainly didn't feel down with all the memorable snows we got during that time even with all the usual lulls in between. Is this the proverbial "less snow but more of it coming at one time" kind of thing?

And hang on...are we talking 40 years between then and 1960? Huh...do we have any periods prior to 1960 to compare to? I'm wondering if the 60s were just an anomaly...no decade before then ever snowed like that around here.

[dailylurker]

16 minutes ago, stormy said:

PSU is a special character that we tolerate. I gain special insight from his posts occasionally but sometimes go to bed after tuning out.   I'm sure he does the same with my posts...............

Everyone here is kinda weird. It's my kinda people lol. PSU is a vampire that feeds off snowflakes. Dude never sleeps. He just studies computer models all night. He's extremely valuable so be nice!

[Solution Man]

18z looks a lot different from 12z at 180, but it will still be ugly for us

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

no one kills a positive post more than PSU

Lol damn Ji u haven't changed in  15 years 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

18z looks a lot different from 12z at 180, but it will still be ugly for us

Well its hour 180 so... lol

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If we get 50 days of winter that have BN temps, I’ll take the over on 1” of snow. 

So would I but it is also telling that so many runs have the snow minimum somewhere near our latitude.  Especially when it fits the analogs. Now that doesn’t mean the minimum ends up nothing like that one run that was kinda comical but it does temper my expectations 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

So would I but it is also telling that so many runs have the snow minimum somewhere near our latitude.  Especially when it fits the analogs. Now that doesn’t mean the minimum ends up nothing like that one run that was kinda comical but it does temper my expectations 

That snow map is a month and a half in advance though. Snow forecasts that far out are never accurate.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

2000-2016 were down? Wow it certainly didn't feel down with all the memorable snows we got during that time even with all the usual lulls in between. Is this the proverbial "less snow but more of it coming at one time" kind of thing?

And hang on...are we talking 40 years between then and 1960? Huh...do we have any periods prior to 1960 to compare to? I'm wondering if the 60s were just an anomaly...no decade before then ever snowed like that around here.

2001-2016 was a very favorable cycle if you look at the predominant long wave pattern. Almost opposite what we’ve had since. What I was saying is the closest comp we have to that favorable a period was 1958-1970 but the snowfall didn’t nearly live up for us. The anomalies shifted north. 
 

It’s hard to compare periods prior to 1950 because the upper level data doesn’t go back that far and so we’re kinda flying blind. But we can look at raw snow data and see that cycles of high snowfall have been decreasing for a while. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

That snow map is a month and a half in advance though. Snow forecasts that far out are never accurate.

Of course it’s not. But that’s not the point. The point is that there have been a lot of runs of the long range controls for the gfs and eps with a snow minimum near or over us. And that fits the analogs for this season many of which featured snow minimums over us. 
 

That’s it. Read into that whatever you want. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

That snow map is a month and a half in advance though. Snow forecasts that far out are never accurate.

No aspect of a forecast is accurate a month+ out on modeled simulations, but that is especially true of snow forecasts. Best you can do is maybe glean the potential for a cold pattern and the tendency for it to be wetter/drier than average.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Of course it’s not. But that’s not the point. The point is that there have been a lot of runs of the long range controls for the gfs and eps with a snow minimum near or over us. And that fits the analogs for this season many of which featured snow minimums over us. 
 

That’s it. Read into that whatever you want. 

Would precip be accurate that far out? There were quite a few times in the warmer months where there were several inches of rain on those maps over a month in advance only for it to go poof as we got closer.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Would precip be accurate that far out? There were quite a few times in the warmer months where there were several inches of rain on those maps over a month in advance only for it to go poof as we got closer.

Are those control runs going to be accurate no.  Not a chance. But this is about probabilities. Math. There is an inherent amount of random chance and luck too. Even on a dry pattern all it takes is to get lucky a few times to end up with above normal snow here. Or maybe the whole pattern is just wrong. That’s possible too. 
 

But we are trying to glean what hints we can. And when the guidance is saying something that also is supported by analogs it’s a hint. That’s all. Nothing more. Doesn’t mean it will definitely happen. But the fact many of the years that were similar to this one features some cold periods yet low snowfall and now long range guidance is often hinting at the same thing is worth noting I think.  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

no one kills a positive post more than PSU

I predicted a ton of snow just last winter.  You want me to be JB? 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I predicted a ton of snow just last winter.  You want me to be JB? 

Well, to be fair (you shouldn't be too hard on yourself), I think a lot of people were getting pretty bullish in January of last winter for our prospects in February.  The longer range models kept showing a classic El Nino with blocking, strong southern jet, etc.  It looked like an absolutely ripe snow pattern that would continue for weeks into early March.  Like drool-worthy.  However, as we got into late January, and as that time period got more in range with the regular ensembles, that great pattern evaporated quickly.  We all know what happened afterward (nothing, in terms of winter!).  Honestly, I still don't quite know what happened or why things suddenly appeared to flip to nearly the opposite of what was being advertised day after day after day for awhile.  But I do recall something @Bob Chill mentioned, a caution, that he didn't quite like what he was seeing "under the hood."  And it was either Chill or perhaps you and others as well, who mentioned that as that time got closer, we really didn't see "big hits" on ensemble members showing up, which you normally would see with such an advertised pattern.  And that raised some red flags.

[Terpeast]

Both 18z gfs and 12z AIFS have a follow up wave after the cutter. It’s rain for now, but close. Any colder, it’ll be wintry. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1864115448490459323?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A
Bam trying to stay strong with their cold call- 

[Ji]

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1864115448490459323?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A
Bam trying to stay strong with their cold call- 

If it was last year they would be yelling torch. Eric Webber also changed his forecast to warm

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

If it was last year they would be yelling torch. Eric Webber also changed his forecast to warm

When did that happen, it was just 2 days ago he was saying the warm up looked minor and temporary at worst. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

When did that happen, it was just 2 days ago he was saying the warm up looked minor and temporary at worst. 

His most recent tweet pointed to -EAMT with a barfing emoji. It sounds like he was capitulating out of frustration.

Honestly I’m confused about his assessments in EAMT because he says the high pressure NW of himalayas with low pressure in the lee is -EAMT. Yet he also referred to the same pressure configuration as +EAMT in both Dec 2018 and in 2020-21. So which is it? 

[Ji]

When did that happen, it was just 2 days ago he was saying the warm up looked minor and temporary at worst. 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1864031296210796596?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA