December Medium/ Long Range

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't forget '87

Good catch! I thought I might have forgot a year. 2/13 years with normal or above snow from 1980-1993. Brutal

Then....1993-1994, 1995-1996, 1999-2000, 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16

All of these winters were very close to normal or above normal for the metro areas and some places saw considerably more. That's a crazy run of good fortune for this area. Resorting back to the mean. 60s and 70s were great, 80s and early 90s stunk, 50s stunk overall too. Nature of the beast. We'll have another storm run at some point. 

[winter_warlock]

FWIW. Joe bastardi talked about a major stratospheric warming  event happening later in. December and could mean a cold Jan!! 

[Ji]

FWIW. Joe bastardi talked about a major stratospheric warming  event happening later in. December and could mean a cold Jan!! 

Is he backtracking on the torch winter he predicted?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I thought the weeklies looked pretty good for Christmas/Late Dec through Mid January and perhaps beyond...

Optimism? What did you do to the real Ji?

[87storms]

27 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Good catch! I thought I might have forgot a year. 2/13 years with normal or above snow from 1980-1993. Brutal

Then....1993-1994, 1995-1996, 1999-2000, 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16

All of these winters were very close to normal or above normal for the metro areas and some places saw considerably more. That's a crazy run of good fortune for this area. Resorting back to the mean. 60s and 70s were great, 80s and early 90s stunk, 50s stunk overall too. Nature of the beast. We'll have another storm run at some point. 

I thought the 80s was generally pretty great for snow...like maybe the best decade I've experienced.  I was a kid, but still remember a lot of good snowstorms and it made me think snow was a real thing around here.  Late 80s to early 90s was less good, though.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf

[PrinceFrederickWx]

44 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

They can absolutely still get it in February. The lack of snow right now is in part to a really terrible string of QBO/MJO/PDO luck. We've been in a trifecta of pure puke when it comes to a relatively good pattern and that had major feedback on other indices as well. We've really only been in it for 8-9 years too, so we might have more to go. This was pretty much the case in the 80s into the early 90s too. We didn't have too many snowy winters that run, outside like '83 where one storm really made all the difference. PDO is a bear because it can last so damn long. Just have to let it play out. 

I sure hope you’re right! It’s crazy that we haven’t had a region-wide WSW in February since 2015.

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I thought the 80s was generally pretty great for snow...like maybe the best decade I've experienced.  I was a kid, but still remember a lot of good snowstorms and it made me think snow was a real thing around here.  Late 80s to early 90s was less good, though.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf

Interesting. I thought the 80s might have been a bit meh on the snowfall, but it seems like a few years did have some decent snows. 83 and 87 were for sure good years. Surprised at a few of those winters. That late 80s into the early 90s period was pretty terrible, yeesh. 

[yoda]

So I guess Wednesday night into Thursday is our last chance to get some snow for a bit?  

[mappy]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

So I guess Wednesday night into Thursday is our last chance to get some snow for a bit?  

Until the 12/19 repeat I beg for every winter lol

[87storms]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Interesting. I thought the 80s might have been a bit meh on the snowfall, but it seems like a few years did have some decent snows. 83 and 87 were for sure good years. Surprised at a few of those winters. That late 80s into the early 90s period was pretty terrible, yeesh. 

Quite a bit more prolonged snow cover too, even in Silver Spring where I grew up. I remember the 90s being better for the more nw suburbs…lots of snow to rain…and plenty of busts where there’d be a wsw and I’d wake up to wet pavement lol. I think a lot of those were systems that are just simply better modeled now (where the mountains might muck up precip further east). 2000s and beyond have seemed more boom or bust (in general) with less consistency.

[rjvanals]

12 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Quite a bit more prolonged snow cover too, even in Silver Spring where I grew up. I remember the 90s being better for the more nw suburbs…lots of snow to rain…and plenty of busts where there’d be a wsw and I’d wake up to wet pavement lol. I think a lot of those were systems that are just simply better modeled now (where the mountains might muck up precip further east). 2000s and beyond have seemed more boom or bust (in general) with less consistency.

One example that pops in my head was 2 weeks after the 1996 blizzard we had tremendous flooding w the cutter but still had 2-4 inches of snow forecasted on the back side (w winter weather advisories). We got the flooding but obviously no snow and I wonder if that would still be a bust today. 

[Eskimo Joe]

To illustrate the turbulence in the long range, the operational GFS trended between 10 and 18 degrees colder from 12z to 18z today for the Dec 10th event. 

[Terpeast]

Extended GEFS & EPS are very different after around dec 15 in handling the MJO, which will likely have implications for late Dec even early Jan. 

 

[wxdude64]

40 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

One example that pops in my head was 2 weeks after the 1996 blizzard we had tremendous flooding w the cutter but still had 2-4 inches of snow forecasted on the back side (w winter weather advisories). We got the flooding but obviously no snow and I wonder if that would still be a bust today. 

Remember that well. 

[winter_warlock]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Is he backtracking on the torch winter he predicted?

 Well he hasn't said those words but. He's leaning alot more towards cold then he was in October  that's for sure

[Kevin Reilly]

9 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Come to expect it. Gfs is more of the same. Winters ain’t like they used to be. 

I have been saying this now for going on 5 years.  Welcome to the Pacific Dominant Winters where the warmer waters of the Pacific cause the Pacific Jet to dominate our winters in the lower 48. This is our new normal, which equals predominately warmer winters overall with a lot less snow in the east due to warming off the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and The Atlantic.  Waters take longer to cool down and by the time we do cool down it is time to warm them back up again as the sun angle returns to the Northern Hemisphere.  

[winter_warlock]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Extended GEFS & EPS are very different after around dec 15 in handling the MJO, which will likely have implications for late Dec even early Jan. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but it's going into phase 7 I believe. Isn't that a cold  eastern trough phase for us?same with phase 8

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but it's going into phase 7 I believe. Isn't that a cold  eastern trough phase for us?same with phase 8

IIRC, Phase 7, 8, and 1 are our money phases.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC, Phase 7, 8, and 1 are our money phases.

Yess  to me it looks like we're heading there unless I'm reading that model wrong lol

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

18z gfs gets moisture in before all the cold departs

Yes!!! Sleet pellets mixed with rain at the onset becoming all rain in say less than an hour; this seems very familiar the last few years. 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Good catch! I thought I might have forgot a year. 2/13 years with normal or above snow from 1980-1993. Brutal

Then....1993-1994, 1995-1996, 1999-2000, 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16

All of these winters were very close to normal or above normal for the metro areas and some places saw considerably more. That's a crazy run of good fortune for this area. Resorting back to the mean. 60s and 70s were great, 80s and early 90s stunk, 50s stunk overall too. Nature of the beast. We'll have another storm run at some point. 

What is also noteworthy of these years most of them had that one or two large snowstorms and many of them were coming off a Negative NAO rising towards positive.  Standouts to me are Superstorm of March 1993, January 7th, 1996, December 19th, 2009, and February 2010.

[Ji]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it's going into phase 7 I believe. Isn't that a cold  eastern trough phase for us?same with phase 8

One model has the mjo wave much stronger than the other. That would matter quite a bit

[IronTy]

41 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Well he hasn't said those words but. He's leaning alot more towards cold then he was in October  that's for sure

JB always falls into the same trap.  Before the season they generally issue a reasonable winter forecast but then he gets sucked into wishcasting epic snows and cold but eventually he has to capitulate and go into exile and wander in the woods wondering where he went wrong.  But if you go back at the end of the season and look at their official winter forecast it's often not that far off.  So if he would just stick to the original forecast instead of letting feelings get involved he would be ok.  He's definitely a true weather weenie when it comes to snow.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC, Phase 7, 8, and 1 are our money phases.

 

38 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Yess  to me it looks like we're heading there unless I'm reading that model wrong lol

GEFS quite amplified, EPS flat in COD. Completely different outcomes.

[winter_warlock]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

One model has the mjo wave much stronger than the other. That would matter quite a bit

Would much strong benefit  us or hurt us for getting snow and cold?

[Eskimo Joe]

Don't look now, but the NAM wants snow squalls on Thursday morning from US 50 west.

[high risk]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't look now, but the NAM wants snow squalls on Thursday morning from US 50 west.

     It's a nice little forced line just ahead of the cold front.    It's there on the HiResW FV3 as well, but that model is warmer and verbatim has heavy showers that might end as a burst of snow.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

GEFS quite amplified, EPS flat in COD. Completely different outcomes.

This is almost certainly why the GEFS is not wanting to let the Eastern trough return as much as the EPS.  Let's hope it is wrong.

[rjvanals]

00z GFS is totally different (not in a good way) for late weekend storm compared to 18z

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC, Phase 7, 8, and 1 are our money phases.

Phase 7 is very weakly correlated to negative temp anomalies in MA.  Phase 8 is better.  In general, the "bad" phases are more strongly correlated to crappiness than the "good" phases are to weenie weather.