Terpeast Posted November 23 Author Share Posted November 23 For Dec 3-7, GEPS still shows a signal for a coastal with plenty of cold, and EPS to a lesser extent. GEFS not picking anything up yet. Haven’t bought in for the Thanksgiving storm. I’m almost certain it will be rain for just about everyone except interior NE. Not cold enough yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: All 3 ensembles keep the PNA/EPO/WPO ridging going strong at D15. Cross polar flow the whole time. If it's one thing I've learned over the past decade, it's that you really need the Pacific on your side to have a shot. Otherwise it's all about pinpoint timing. 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: 06z AI Euro shows the path to a successful Thurs/Friday. Surface is still too warm, but with the 850s I imagine this is snow. Pretty identical to its 00z run too. Slightly better timing allowing accumulations to start overnight could = success -3 to -5 will get you TV Snow at least west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’ll wait for my AI darling to let us down before I let the fat lady sing. Spire also has a storm… AI revolution? Yeah, the 06z A1 does look interesting! I hadn't looked at it today. A little beef up in stead of back down. Surface is marginal in mid 30's but 850's look good at minus 4! When will the 12z be available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob need to start a December thread but EPS not backing down on the PAC pattern. Really consistent with holding that ridge axis right over the west coast EPS continues to look good... I just hope it is this way next week on the models 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 11 minutes ago, yoda said: EPS continues to look good... I just hope it is this way next week on the models Hard to complain and looks cold, but remains to be seen how conducive it is for getting a significant NS shortwave to dig enough to develop a storm south of our latitude. Probably need an anticyclonic wave break to get a shortwave embedded in the flow to dive further southward/further west than these panels imply. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 12Z EURO AIFS stays consistent with a pretty ideal track. It's just iffy surface temps. 850s tighter this go around too. Regardless of whether this threat has any legs, interesting test of whether the AIFS might be sniffing something out 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12Z EURO AIFS stays consistent with it's pretty ideal track. It's just iffy surface temps. 850s tighter this go around too. Regardless of whether this threat has any legs, interesting test of whether the AIFS might be sniffing something out seems like the operational models are focused more on Thursday than anything on friday. Putting all their eggs into the front runner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 hour ago, Ji said: seems like the operational models are focused more on Thursday than anything on friday. Putting all their eggs into the front runner 18z GFS is gonna be a day earlier than the AIFS again it looks like. Difference is very clear at ~3 days on the GFS. Again, this is mostly an exercise in my head to reference later to see if the AI is gonna do anything for us this winter, but GFS pushes the energy onshore at like hr66. It gets held back and weakened on the AIFS which lets more cold build in/suppresses things south in the long run. Note the time differences below. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Ma*t The effects of cold Mongolian high pressure that I mentioned would be 8-10 days away earlier this week will arrive Friday night thru Sunday next werk with Sat and Sunday daytime highs in -15 departure range, highs around 40. its a good first shot start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z GFS is gonna be a day earlier than the AIFS again it looks like. Difference is very clear at ~3 days on the GFS. Again, this is mostly an exercise in my head to reference later to see if the AI is gonna do anything for us this winter, but GFS pushes the energy onshore at like hr66. It gets held back and weakened on the AIFS which lets more cold build in/suppresses things south in the long run. Note the time differences below. I hope this isn't a sign of this becoming a west coast trough that just dumps cold out west and we wind up with a raging southeast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I hope this isn't a sign of this becoming a west coast trough that just dumps cold out west and we wind up with a raging southeast ridge. I mean…that would be a repeat of a pattern that we’ve seen for years now. It is certainly believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Dare I say Siberian cold air headed our way? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Early Dec looks great, I just hope the pattern stays for the month or leaves and pumps back for the holidays. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If it was January or February, we’d be looking at 10s for highs and lows near 0 probably, even without snowcover. I’ll be quite impressed if we get a sub-freezing high out of the first week of December. Very impressed if DCA manages that, but I’d bet against it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If it was January or February, we’d be looking at 10s for highs and lows near 0 probably, even without snowcover. I’ll be quite impressed if we get a sub-freezing high out of the first week of December. Very impressed if DCA manages that, but I’d bet against it. I think it will be the coldest airmass in December alot of us have seen in about a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12Z EURO AIFS stays consistent with a pretty ideal track. It's just iffy surface temps. 850s tighter this go around too. Regardless of whether this threat has any legs, interesting test of whether the AIFS might be sniffing something out I think it may be sniffing glue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 I think it may be sniffing glue Didn’t cave at 18z, but still too warm at the surface! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Anomalous early season winter cold with no moisture. Woot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12Z EURO AIFS stays consistent with a pretty ideal track. It's just iffy surface temps. 850s tighter this go around too. Regardless of whether this threat has any legs, interesting test of whether the AIFS might be sniffing something out How accurate is the 12Z EURO AIFS compared to the typical EURO? just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Anomalous early season winter cold with no moisture. Woot! My bar is so low that I'm almost okay with it just being cold in December for a change! Besides how often do we do anomalous cold with snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: If it was January or February, we’d be looking at 10s for highs and lows near 0 probably, even without snowcover. I’ll be quite impressed if we get a sub-freezing high out of the first week of December. Very impressed if DCA manages that, but I’d bet against it. I'd just be happy with climo at this point. For me, I'm hoping this doesn't turn out to be a last minute rug pull like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 How accurate is the 12Z EURO AIFS compared to the typical EURO? just curious Supposedly better in some ways, worse in others (worse resolution). They have a write up on their site: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-systemEither way, should in theory have some utility. It’s not a waste to look. It is firmly on an island right now, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Ma*t The effects of cold Mongolian high pressure that I mentioned would be 8-10 days away earlier this week will arrive Friday night thru Sunday next werk with Sat and Sunday daytime highs in -15 departure range, highs around 40. its a good first shot start we are a cold town 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 we are a cold townI’m too old for cold and dry 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 I’m too old for cold and dryI walk or bike to work. I’m now mostly in the camp of “if it’s not gonna snow it might as well be 70.” Cold blows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: If it was January or February, we’d be looking at 10s for highs and lows near 0 probably, even without snowcover. I’ll be quite impressed if we get a sub-freezing high out of the first week of December. Very impressed if DCA manages that, but I’d bet against it. With record warm Great Lake temps and this type of cold, there is gonna be some epic lake effect snows. May be some good chasing opportunities. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 I will try to find you folks a 10% snow prob. Map at 0Z. Cone on everyone, we need cold first. The fact that it can still even get cold is a start. Actually cold and dry is a long time phenomenon here... the way it was for most of the 70s before global warming was a thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 WB 18Z EURO. We need the rain. Be thankful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 I don’t think it’s gonna be meaningful in either case but 00z GFS and CMC seem to be making meaningful moves towards a more AI Euro-like evolution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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