December Medium/ Long Range

[Terpeast]

For Dec 3-7, GEPS still shows a signal for a coastal with plenty of cold, and EPS to a lesser extent. GEFS not picking anything up yet. 

Haven’t bought in for the Thanksgiving storm. I’m almost certain it will be rain for just about everyone except interior NE. Not cold enough yet. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

All 3 ensembles keep the PNA/EPO/WPO ridging going strong at D15. Cross polar flow the whole time. 

If it's one thing I've learned over the past decade, it's that you really need the Pacific on your side to have a shot. Otherwise it's all about pinpoint timing.

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

06z AI Euro shows the path to a successful Thurs/Friday. Surface is still too warm, but with the 850s I imagine this is snow. Pretty identical to its 00z run too. Slightly better timing allowing accumulations to start overnight could = success

-3 to -5 will get you TV Snow at least west of I-95.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll wait for my AI darling to let us down before I let the fat lady sing. Spire also has a storm… AI revolution?

Yeah, the 06z  A1 does look interesting!  I hadn't looked at it today.  A little beef up in stead of back down.  Surface is marginal in mid 30's but 850's look good at minus 4!  When will the 12z be available? 

[yoda]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob need to start a December thread but EPS not backing down on the PAC pattern. Really consistent with holding that ridge axis right over the west coast

 

 

EPS continues to look good... I just hope it is this way next week on the models

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

EPS continues to look good... I just hope it is this way next week on the models

Hard to complain and looks cold, but remains to be seen how conducive it is for getting a significant NS shortwave to dig enough to develop a storm south of our latitude. Probably need an anticyclonic wave break to get 

a shortwave embedded in the flow to dive further southward/further west than these panels imply.

[NorthArlington101]

12Z EURO AIFS stays consistent with it's pretty ideal track. It's just iffy surface temps. 850s tighter this go around too.

Regardless of whether this threat has any legs, interesting test of whether the AIFS might be sniffing something out

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12Z EURO AIFS stays consistent with it's pretty ideal track. It's just iffy surface temps. 850s tighter this go around too.

Regardless of whether this threat has any legs, interesting test of whether the AIFS might be sniffing something out

seems like the operational models are focused more on Thursday than anything on friday. Putting all their eggs into the front runner